Hello, dear participants. Earlier I mentioned https://www.mql5.com/ru/forum/43014 that, I am developing a market theory. Finally, I think it has been developed! It describes in a single formula all types of markets, both monopolistic with free pricing, i.e., an ordinary market for goods and services, where everything is based on price competition and governed by the law of supply and demand, and monopolistic, where prices are dictated by a limited number of market players. I suspect that the abovementioned theory has also embraced Forex, moreover, in this case the nature of market can easily change from the first to the second type, but in general it does not differ from the usual market. I am not going to give away all the secrets of the development yet, but I will show the final results of the research to the best of my ability. Ask questions, do not rush to understand everything at once, I have been thinking for years, before I started to understand something. The entire theory is built around the patterns of profit in the market. The type of this relationship indicates the type of market that is operating at the moment or the time period in question. The convex (like the top of an egg, sorry for the platitude) shape of the calculated curve indicates a competitive (conventional) type of market. If the relationship is convex downwards, it is a monopoly market. There will be a graph of the level of the various prices operating in the market:
1. Price1 is the first break-even point;
2. Price2 is the second break-even point;
3. RR - market price (so far I have called it that);
4. Tsopt - the optimal price, which allows you to get the maximum profit;
5. Tspr - the marginal price when trade stops due to its unattractiveness.
6. Cf - actual price inside or outside the above price levels.
The analysis was performed on weekly opening prices from 11 05 2014. in chunks, by 12 weeks on the Euro/Dollar pair. Let's see what we get:
From 11 05 14 to 27 07 14:
1. The market at this stage is competitive, when the price deviates from the settlement line, it promptly returns to the settlement line, and the market tries to return to breakeven (equilibrium). Forex initially does not give a chance for profit. But, now, knowing the state and desire of the market, it may be possible to guess profitable actions. You can see how the market tried to return to equilibrium (break-even) with one spurt, crossed it, and hit the equilibrium line exactly with the second movement. And the levels show that the market first entered and then, broke through the allowed levels. The next leg will show where it came to.
From 03 08 14 to 19 10 14: The market type is a monopoly of large players, returning the price to new market levels and rapidly leading to equilibrium because the market has become too profitable.
so for the record, the market does not have a loss. Your trading system may have this property, but in the market, if you lose somewhere, you gain somewhere.
1. Рынок на этом этапе конкурентный, при отклонении цены от расчетного, она стремительно возвращается к расчетной линии, причем, рынок старается вернуться к безубытку (равновесию).
You want to pass yourself off as a puppet (god), calculate a certain line and now you try to convince everybody that the law of supply and demand does not work, and that there is only the line you specified :-)) everyone is there ...
You want to pass yourself off as a puppet (lord of God)
Privat, wait. Let's first understand what the man is proposing.
Yousufkhodja Sultonov, it is not quite clear what you are proposing. Have you identified some kind of market pattern ? And what about weeks?
In your words there is a discrepancy with reality, for example, you say that Forex initially does not give a chance to profit, and yet quite a few people do it. Also, it is not clear how the "break-even point" in your words can refer to the entire market and not to an individual company (as I understand it). I also join the question asked by Prival - how can "profit" or "loss" concepts be attributed to the whole market ?
In general, I would like to understand "what was it" ?
we are obviously talking about distributions
profit - in the tradition of western economics texts - is the p1-p0 price differentials (increments).
we are waiting for the continuation of fractal distributions with high kurtosis and fat tails
PS it is worth mentioning that this fertile topic has already been ploughed over by e.g. author Edgar Peters
Yousufkhodja Sultonov, it is not quite clear what you are proposing. Have you identified some kind of market pattern ? And in weeks?
Why wait. This is called scientism. One wants to think up something (or maybe sell it, write a dissertation for someone or attract attention), so one does it....
The usual order of actions is as follows.
1. stage - to put a fog, throw scientific words, preferably such that would then another 20 pages to explain what it is.
2. The 2nd stage - the issuance of a bunch of formulas, which again need to explain, and even after explaining these calculations, no one can repeat (which is mandatory for science), because every time the author turns out to be a secret (and most likely no understanding of what he writes).
3. and actually the third stage, for which all this is usually ... Perhaps to gain respect, recognition, honor, diplomas, etc. Perhaps to sell some kind of trading system, like the market always returns, then build a TS known as "return to the mean", and then improve the TS, the further the market went, the more we averaged ..... The market will go back to this calculated line 101%, that's what the great theory says :-))
Look where the swing is coming from Cauchy, many have heard of him and heard about Cauchy inequality, but this is different, there is a difference which they BECAUSE of Cauchy difference and he is not even close to Cauchy, he must be turning over in his grave by such inventors of new theories ...
I would have kept silent and probably would have loved to read it, but it is corrosive, very corrosive, call it inequality in his name, I would not have said a word. Like Sultanov's great difference, it's OK, no problem ... But here he's not, he needs a way to claim Koshi's fame, to mess with everybody's head...
In your words there is a discrepancy with reality, for example, you say that Forex initially does not give a chance to profit, and yet quite a few people do it. Also, it is not clear how the "break-even point" in your words can refer to the entire market and not to an individual company (as I understand it). I also join the question asked by Prival - how can the concepts of "profit" or "loss" be applied to the whole market ?
The blue, calculated, profit line describes in the same way the profit of any organisation, private entrepreneur, company, trader, both monopolist and participant of the competitive market, and as we can see, also the Forex market. These concepts and abundance of prices are characteristic of any market. Until now, we have had superficial and/or qualitative notions about them, or we have only sketched them out in general terms. I will try to explain:
1. Cp1 - the first break-even point; - you are selling so cheaply that the profit is enough only to cover variable and fixed costs.
2. Price2 is the second break-even point; - you sell so long that, the profit is only enough to cover variable and fixed costs.
3. Цr - a market price (while I have named it so); - it is formed as an arithmetic average of Ц1 and Ц2, but is calculated under the special formula (methodology) depending on properties of the market (the purchase price of the goods, a marginal price of realization, constant and variable expenses).
4. Copt - the optimum price that allows you to get the maximum profit; - is numerically equal to the geometric mean of C1 and C2 (remember the Cauchy difference?)
5. Tspr - the marginal price when trade stops due to its unattractiveness. - The price at which a product does not find a buyer in the market (there is a special methodology for calculating this).
6. Cf - the actual price inside or outside the above price levels.
Why wait. It's called scientism. One wants to think up something (or maybe sell it, write a dissertation for someone or attract attention), so one does such things....
The usual actions are in the following order.
I would have kept silent and probably would have loved to read it, but it is corrosive, very corrosive, call it inequality in his name, I would not have said a word. Like Sultanov's great difference, it's OK, no problem ... But there's no problem, he needs a way to claim Koshi's fame, to mess with everyone's head...
1. Yes, the market model covers 50 formulas, next to which you have not even passed;
2. You will not see them and I will not explain - you will not understand anyway with such an understanding of the situation;
3. Time will tell, and the price level indicator apparently will;
4. With koshi I did quite rightly, it would be sacrilege, to use, but not to remind;
5. Let others call it by my name, if they deem it worthy of such honour.
1. Yes, the market model covers 50 formulas next to which you have not even passed;
2. you won't see them or explain them - you won't understand with that understanding of the situation anyway;
1. I'd better have more, otherwise I may be able to handle 50 formulas ..... don't assume everyone is dumber than you are beforehand.
2. And in this case, it's accurate, especially scientifically. So for the record, one of the requirements for scientific papers (works) these calculations can be checked (repeated) otherwise it is . blah...blah...blah.
3. Now it is the essence and appears, the indicator will be and probably will put on sale :-))) price only more, more respectable specify
4. I would like to give you a link to Koshi's difference, everybody knows about it. Enlighten about the difference and how it relates to Cauchy's work ?
5. Exactly what matters is not truth but honour. There is already a name for such theories .... a name for such theories..."British scientists proved" :-)
1. On weeks - just started with this data, you can also do it by the minute, by the hour, ........ by the year;
2. Doesn't give any chance of systematic profits, that's not what it's designed for ! We are the ones who have adapted forex to making profits. That's what it doesn't provide. Too dangerous venture. In a casino the probability of making a profit is greater. But, we do not give up and look for patterns for a stable income. But, as you can see, there is a possibility to make a profit of some points, for example 5 points of 50-100 pips of movement. This is a very large profit, I think. Not all of the movement is allowed to make a profit. This is an illusion.
3. can be applied to the market as a whole - a special approach has been found, I will tell you later.
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