Market theory - page 271

[Vasiliy Sokolov]

Alexander Ivanov:
The whole Western model of understanding the forex market is based on a Gaussian distribution view of the market. I think this is purely erroneous. That's why 90% of traders lose their deposits.

Denying one does not confirm the existence of the other. Who told you that the market distribution is a Cauchy distribution?

[Alexander Ivanov]

Vasiliy Sokolov:
Denying one does not confirm the existence of the other. Who told you that market distribution is a Cauchy distribution?

Cauchy distributions are small plots, in a vast chaos of distributions, on which you can take a profit.

[Alexander Ivanov]

I.e. the currency pair market, it is very difficult to take a profit. And there is no need to try to find a certain universal law.

[Vasiliy Sokolov]

Alexander Ivanov:
The Cauchy distribution is small plots, in a vast chaos of distributions, on which one can take a profit.

The type of distribution does not prove, although it does not disprove, the possibility of making a profit.

It is possible to find at least as many small plots that will fit the Gaussian perfectly.

[Alexander Ivanov]

Vasiliy Sokolov:

The type of distribution does not prove, although it does not disprove, the possibility of earning.

It is possible to find at least as many small plots that will fit the Gaussian perfectly.

I am the one who rejects the Gaussian model. The Gaussian model is suitable for strictly controlled processes - engines running, a biathlete shooting, a bomb exploding etc.

[Alexander Ivanov]

Using probability theory - according to Louis Cauchy's distribution, we come to the conclusion that the market curve does not give a certain mathematical expectation. Then, if we want to trade with a constant minimum profit, without losing the deposit, we should not build "cool" profitable strategies in our heads.

[Alexander Ivanov]

Even soon in a separate thread - what is the currency pairs market in its own way ;)))

[Alexander Ivanov]

And according to Gauss, there is always a mathematical expectation. And in our case, there is no mathematical expectation.

[Vasiliy Sokolov]

Alexander Ivanov:
Even soon in a separate thread - what is the currency pairs market in its own way ;)))

Publish. Let's see.

[Alexander Ivanov]

Vasiliy Sokolov:
Publish. We'll see.

Yeah, I'll draw some sketches, and I'll get started. It'll even be interesting.