Market theory - page 272

[Дмитрий]

Alexander Ivanov:
Using probability theory - according to Louis Cauchy's distribution, we come to the conclusion that the market curve does not give a certain mathematical expectation. Then, if we want to trade with a constant minimum profit, without losing the deposit, we should not build "cool" profitable strategies in our heads.

What is a "market curve"?

[Mikhail Tkachev]

Boris:
He has only "theory", which in practice is "written all over the place"! Let him have fun, amuse himself, indulge himself, but he regularly loses deposits of reckless ones and his signals also lead to losses! The main thing is to believe in the theory, and let others practice!

Boris, it is incorrect to speak for the respected Yousufkhodja ... :)
Maybe you just haven't appreciated it yet?

[Mikhail Tkachev]

Alexander Ivanov:
The entire Western model of understanding the forex market is based on a Gaussian distribution view of the market.

A strong statement ...
I've been reading about generalized hyperbolic distribution for a long time now, I just lack the literacy to figure it out. :(
And https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/363 shows well that on minute price changes there will be a normal distribution if you cut off the long tails.

[Дмитрий]

Alexander Ivanov:
The whole Western model of understanding the forex market is based on a Gaussian distribution view of the market. I think this is purely erroneous. That's why 90% of traders lose their deposits.

And how do ALL TA methods take into account a possible distribution function?

[Mikhail Tkachev]

Vasiliy Sokolov:
Dreams, dreams. How many times have I thought that "just a little more tweaking and it will work". However, nothing good ever came of it. It is naive to think that Forex can be predicted by technical analysis, especially this interpretation of it.

You can't predict anything with TA, you can build a prediction with a certain confidence probability using matstatistics. :)

[Дмитрий]

And what exactly is the method of the "western model of understanding forex" that takes into account the distribution function of a random variable?

[Alexander Ivanov]

Дмитрий:
What is a "market curve"?

is the name given to a graph of the ratio of the two currencies.

[Дмитрий]

Mike:
You can't predict anything with TA, you can build a prediction with a certain confidence probability using matstatistics. :)

What matstatistics models do you use?

[Дмитрий]

Alexander Ivanov:
is what he called a graph of the ratio of the two currencies.

What is the problem with calculating MO prices?

[Alexander Ivanov]

Mike:
A strong statement ...
I've been reading about the generalised hyperbolic distribution for a long time now, only I'm not literate enough to figure it out. :(
And https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/363 shows well that on minute changes of prices there will be a normal distribution, if we cut off long tails.

I'll post in a new thread soon, and we'll talk there.