Market theory - page 28
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Up to this point all is going well for the BAY position, opened at 97 on the baton transfer from the bears to the bulls, but, the behaviour of the managers and the bears is alarming:
Op! Next, the bears, unexpectedly for the calm bulls, are back in the arena with a firm intention to steer. We close the BAY and wait for developments:
Bulls are knocked out by the will of the managers. and bears are heading for the price at its peak. We press on the sell:
What a fairy tale, what a fairy tale. :-) It looks like you can't get away with just chips and beer here... :-)
"I so wish the song would never end..."
Yusuf, are you not familiar with this indicator(Figure 7 shows an example of IndicatorES.mq5), from this article: Predicting Time Series Using Exponential Smoothing?
If not, you can quickly look through the article and write something that you think is necessary. I think yours has something in common with it...
And the wording is much the same as yours, for example,
"The only parameter of the indicator is the length of a sequence to be processed; its minimum value is limited to 24 bars. All calculations in the indicator are based on open[] values. Forecasting horizon is 12 bars. The IndicatorES.mq5 indicator code and the CIndicatorES.mqh file can be found in Files.zip at the end of the article".
When the indicator works, the 95% confidence interval of the forecast will take values corresponding to the optimal values of the model parameters found. The larger the values of the smoothing parameters, the faster the confidence interval increases as the forecast horizon increases.With a simple modification IndicatorES.mq5 indicator can be used not only for currency quotes forecasting but also for creation of forecasts for different indicators or preliminary prepared data.
Here - themain purpose of this article was to introduce the reader to additive models of exponential smoothing used for prediction, you have the Universal Regression Model. I think we have something in common... https://www.mql5.com/ru/articles/318
And the conclusions seem to be similar to YOUR conclusions..."However, the material presented in the article can only be seen as a first touch to a huge reservoir of forecasting-related problems and solutions."
Thank you.
Yes, I have reviewed the article, you can use its conclusions to assess different market states. Thank you, Roman.
The managers drove the bulls upwards, leaving the bears with the price (why is that? Let's learn to understand the managers so far, we see that the bulls were given the command to pull the price up a little, without directly contacting the price):
The bears fought back the bulls' attempt to take hold of the price and drove it up. Although they briefly managed the price for one day without success, pushing the bears down (this scenario is not visible to you because of the scale, but I saw this drama):
But, still the bulls are back and are near the price, we close the SELL and exit the market until the difficult situation is resolved:
That's it, the situation is cleared up, the bulls have lured the price and chased it upwards. We press BAY:
We finally make sure that, with the entry was not wrong, the bulls, with the support of the managers, confidently raise the price, and the bears are ordered to stay down and do not interfere in the process:
It's time, now, to clarify the role of the Cpr - the ceiling price beyond which no trading should take place in the market. That is the physical meaning I have assigned to this parameter in this theory and it has not been displayed on the chart until now not to interfere with finding out the roles of other parameters. Now let's display the Cpr on the chart and find out if it fulfills its role of a kind of "guardian" of the market that does not allow managers to make wrong decisions to the detriment of the market as a whole and that is responsible for observing of liquidity conditions of the market:
It turns out the following:
1. The cpr. does play its role of market advocate and watchdog, but it does it in a peculiar way, namely, it assigns its role to the bulls when the market is led by bears and vice versa, to the bears when the price is handed to the bulls. There is no separate character, in the form of the Cpr., on the market.
2. In the market, the terms "Support" and/or "Resistance" appear because there is a Bull Chameleon and a Copper Chameleon supporting, alternately, a liquid trade in the market. They themselves alternately act as dynamic, constantly changing support and/or resistance levels following the price, according to a complex pattern.
3. there are no "horizontal" support and resistance lines in the market.
Managers are pushing the bulls upwards, leaving the bears with the price (why? Let's learn to understand the managers so far, we see that the bulls are commanded to pull the price up a little, without directly contacting the price):
))))))))) non-contact fight heard somewhere, but shob non-contact torg.
RBC sucks, Yusuf is our everything now.
It is not clear which market we are talking about?
I don't see such current prices in the eurik.
What are the numbers on the abscissa?
It is about the euro/dollar from 04 01 2010, time frame D1. On the abscissa axis are trading days from 01 02 2010, 20 trading days in January were used as the initial sample period, therefore they are not shown. Further numbers correspond to the respective trading days that have passed since 01 02 2010. This graph shows all the Open price information from the beginning of the year:
What are the prices? The current prices for the euro are 1.12577. On your chart the current price (red line) is around 1.34000.
I am attaching a screenshot of the euro on a monthly timeframe:
I have no beef with anyone, I am trying to understand what you are discussing.
What is the point of disconnecting from reality? We need to discuss what is happening at the moment. And your prices are not in line with current realities. How are you going to test your theory? "Practice is the criterion of truth".