Cryptocurrency Market, despite its youth, has already developed its own terminology and patterns. One of these established concepts is the so-called "crypto winter" — a period of stagnation, declining interest, and falling prices on cryptocurrencies, especially Bitcoin. This phase is an integral part of the four-year cycle tied to the halving event, which occurs in the Bitcoin network approximately every 210,000 blocks.
What is halving and why is it important?
Halving is a programmed reduction in the reward for miners for mining a new block by half. The first halving occurred in 2012, the second in 2016, the third in May 2020, the fourth in April 2024, and the next one is expected in March or April 2028.
Since the issuance of new bitcoins slows down, and long-term demand remains stable or grows, halving is traditionally viewed as a catalyst for price growth. However, the effect doesn't manifest immediately — the market usually goes through several phases: preparation, growth, peak, and subsequent decline.
Phases of the Bitcoin Cycle
- Post-Halving Growth (Spring)
- Bull Market (Summer)
- Peak and Correction (Fall)
- Crypto Winter (Winter)This is a period of prolonged sideways movement or slow price decline. Interest in cryptocurrencies drops, media goes silent, and many participants leave the market. Nevertheless, it is during the "winter" that the foundations for the next bull cycle are formed: new protocols are developed, technologies improve, and major players quietly accumulate assets.
Why isn't "crypto winter" a reason to panic?
Historically, every "crypto winter" has been a time of consolidation and preparation. For example:
- After the peak in December 2017 (around $20,000), Bitcoin fell almost to $3,000 by the end of 2018 and traded in a narrow range throughout 2019.
- This was followed by explosive growth in 2020–2021, leading to a maximum of $69,000 in November 2021.
- Since then, the market has gone through a prolonged "winter" in 2022, when macroeconomic factors (Fed rate hikes, crypto exchange collapses) intensified pressure on prices.
- But already in 2024, with the approach of the new halving and the expectation of possible approval of ETFs on physical Bitcoin, sentiments began to change, ultimately leading to Bitcoin growing by 120% in 2024 and 18% in 2025.
How to use knowledge of cycles?
For investors, understanding these phases provides a strategic advantage:
- Buy in the "winter" when the asset is undervalued and emotions are at a minimum.
- Sell at the peak of "summer" when everyone is talking about crypto as the "new gold."
- Avoid impulsive decisions influenced by fear or greed.
The crypto market remains highly risky, but its cyclicality is one of the few reliable guides for long-term planning.
"Crypto winter" is not the end of the world, but a natural part of the market's evolution. Bitcoin's history shows: each cycle makes the ecosystem more mature, resilient, and attractive to new participants. Those who know how to wait patiently and act according to plan most often come out on top when the next "crypto spring" arrives.
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