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One week after the big Brexit crash and as a new quarter begins, it is time to lift our heads from the near term and look forward...
Forecasts
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:28 #GBP/USD
Not all is bad in the UK: manufacturing PMI has jumped to 52.1 points, showing growth in this beleaguered sector. The survey was made before the Brexit vote and therefore may be somewhat outdated...
Currency
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:27 #support
EURUSD Daily Analysis EURUSD (1.109): EURUSD formed an outside bar on the daily session yesterday after QE and rate cut comments from the BoE Governor, Carney. The price action from the past three days shows a kind of consolidation taking place near the minor resistance level at 1...
Trading Systems
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:26 #xauusd, technical analysis
The Australian and New Zealand dollar both weathered the Brexit quite well, but this may not be the end...
Trading Systems
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:22
GBP/USD resumed its falls on Carney’s speech but there may be more to come, with sterling not falling alone: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Despite the sharp fall in GBP so far, we still see it as vulnerable to further declines...
Trading Systems
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:21
Carny made a special appearance and offers easing during the summer as a reaction to Brexit. He makes a heavy hint that they will take a decision in August. This speech was scheduled only yesterday and is seen as part of the damage control. GBP//USD slips to 1.3330. Update: it already slips to 1...
Trading Systems
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:19 #support
No surprises with Canada’s GDP: a rise of 0.1% month over month. Producer prices in Canada jumped by 1.1% m/m, much more than 0.4% predicted but remained negative at -1.1% y/y. USD/CAD remains stable. The Canadian economy suffered from the fall in oil prices but the economy is quite diverse...
Trading Systems
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:17
The Australian dollar is facing elections and a rate decision in the next few days. What’s next? ANZ has a bearish outlook: Here is their view, courtesy of eFXnews: Brexit is now a reality. The damage is done and we now have to navigate through an environment of heightened uncertainty...
Trading Systems
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:15
UK finance minister speaking on Sky ahead of a key speech and reported by BBC 1 July UK will no longer hit surplus in public finances by 2019/20 We never were George. Complete pie in the sky. UK must be realistic First time for everything I guess eh George...
Market News
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:10
ECB chief economist over the wires 1 July ECB can use balance sheet capacity during crises lower growth prospects are a very serious concern health of the banking sector needs key attention I thought CBs have been crowing from the rooftops about how much better the banks are now nicely shored up...
Banks
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 13:08 #ECB
FxWirePro: AUD/CHF Faces Strong Support at 0.7230, Good to Buy at Dips Major resistance – 0.7380 (61.8% retracement of 0.7574 and 0.70323) Major support – 0.7230 (daily Tenkan-Sen) AUD/CHF has recovered sharply after making a low of 0.72317 yesterday. It is currently trading around 0.72994...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 July 2016, 12:24
Technical Analysis of USD/CAD for July 1, 2016 General overview for 01/07/2016: The corrective cycle is evolving towards a more complex and time-consuming pattern. The leg c of this pattern might be completed soon, and the projected target is at the level of 1.2857...
Technical Analysis of EUR/JPY for July 1, 2016 General overview for 01/07/2016: The ongoing complex corrective cycle in wave iv can be completed anytime...
Technical Analysis of USD/CHF for July 01, 2016 USD/CHF is expected to trade with a bearish bias as key resistance is at 0.9800. The pair failed to break above its horizontal resistance and overlap at 0.9800 after having tested it for at least two times yesterday...
ECB board member out on the wires 1 July We can rule out further action next time round in theory. But hey, who trusts a central banker eh? too early for detailed view on Brexit re possible changes in ECB bond purchasing rules EURUSD steady around 1.1100 EURGBP 0.8348 EURJPY 113.92...
Market News
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 11:50
Technical Analysis of NZD/USD for July 01, 2016 NZD/USD is expected to trade with a bullish bias. The pair is turning up and is expected to post further rebound. Meanwhile, a bullish cross has been identified between the 20-period and 50-period moving averages...
Technical Analysis of GBP/JPY for July 01, 2016 GBP/JPY is expected to trade with a bearish bias. The pair is currently challenging its key resistance at 138, while the relative strength index lacks upward momentum. As long as 138 holds as the key resistance, a drop toward 135 is possible...
Our good friends at Livesquawk reporting an article doing the rounds via Reuters 1 July "The European Central Bank is not currently considering buying government debt out of proportion to Eurozone countries' shareholding in the bank and the hurdle for abandoning this capital key is high, sources...
Banks
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 10:45 #ECB
UK Markit mftg June PMI report 50.4 prev revised up from 50.1 GBP rallies on the better data but economy not mftg dependent so impact will be muted. Any good news though re UK may help to calm markets/help GBP right now. Markit say 99% of data collected prior to Brexit...
Market News
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Sherif Hasan, 1 July 2016, 10:44
DAX30 Faces Strong Resistance at 9860, Break Above Targets 9940/100084 Major resistance – 9860 (21 day MA) The index has broken high 9718 (High made after Brexit) and jumped till 9795. It is currently trading around 9668. DAX30 should close above 9860 for further bullishness...
Analytics & Forecasts
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Roberto Jacobs, 1 July 2016, 10:43