The article familiarizes the reader with exponential smoothing models used for short-term forecasting of time series. In addition, it touches upon the issues related to optimization and estimation of the forecast results and provides a few examples of scripts and indicators. This article will be useful as a first acquaintance with principles of forecasting on the basis of exponential smoothing models.
The Championship fervour has finally subsided and we can take a breath and start rethinking its results again. And we have another winner Alexander Arashkevich (AAA777) from Belarus, who has won a special prize from the major sponsor of Automated Trading Championship 2011 - a 3 day trip to one of the Formula One races of the 2012 season. We could not miss the opportunity to talk with him.
This article introduces a class designed to give a quick preliminary estimate of characteristics of various time series. As this takes place, statistical parameters and autocorrelation function are estimated, a spectral estimation of time series is carried out and a histogram is built.