Articles on machine learning in trading
Creating AI-based trading robots: native integration with Python, matrices and vectors, math and statistics libraries and much more.
Find out how to use machine learning in trading. Neurons, perceptrons, convolutional and recurrent networks, predictive models — start with the basics and work your way up to developing your own AI. You will learn how to train and apply neural networks for algorithmic trading in financial markets.
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Artificial Coronary Circulation Algorithm (ACCS)
A metaheuristic algorithm that simulates the growth of coronary arteries in the human heart for optimization problems. It uses the principles of angiogenesis (the growth of new blood vessels), bifurcation (branching), and pruning of weak branches to find optimal solutions in a multidimensional space. Testing its effectiveness across a wide range of tasks yielded unexpected results.
Integrating MQL5 with Data Processing Packages (Part 6): Merging Market Feedback with Model Adaptation
In this part, we focus on how to merge real-time market feedback—such as live trade outcomes, volatility changes, and liquidity shifts—with adaptive model learning to maintain a responsive and self-improving trading system.
Artificial Cooperative Search (ACS) algorithm
Artificial Cooperative Search (ACS) is an innovative method using a binary matrix and multiple dynamic populations based on mutualistic relationships and cooperation to find optimal solutions quickly and accurately. ACS unique approach to predators and prey enables it to achieve excellent results in numerical optimization problems.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 41): Deep-Q-Networks
The Deep-Q-Network is a reinforcement learning algorithm that engages neural networks in projecting the next Q-value and ideal action during the training process of a machine learning module. We have already considered an alternative reinforcement learning algorithm, Q-Learning. This article therefore presents another example of how an MLP trained with reinforcement learning, can be used within a custom signal class.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 66): Using Patterns of FrAMA and the Force Index with the Dot Product Kernel
The FrAMA Indicator and the Force Index Oscillator are trend and volume tools that could be paired when developing an Expert Advisor. We continue from our last article that introduced this pair by considering machine learning applicability to the pair. We are using a convolution neural network that uses the dot-product kernel in making forecasts with these indicators’ inputs. This is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 81): Context-Guided Motion Analysis (CCMR)
In previous works, we always assessed the current state of the environment. At the same time, the dynamics of changes in indicators always remained "behind the scenes". In this article I want to introduce you to an algorithm that allows you to evaluate the direct change in data between 2 successive environmental states.
The base class of population algorithms as the backbone of efficient optimization
The article represents a unique research attempt to combine a variety of population algorithms into a single class to simplify the application of optimization methods. This approach not only opens up opportunities for the development of new algorithms, including hybrid variants, but also creates a universal basic test stand. This stand becomes a key tool for choosing the optimal algorithm depending on a specific task.
Neural networks made easy (Part 79): Feature Aggregated Queries (FAQ) in the context of state
In the previous article, we got acquainted with one of the methods for detecting objects in an image. However, processing a static image is somewhat different from working with dynamic time series, such as the dynamics of the prices we analyze. In this article, we will consider the method of detecting objects in video, which is somewhat closer to the problem we are solving.
Neural Networks in Trading: A Hybrid Trading Framework with Predictive Coding (Final Part)
We continue our examination of the StockFormer hybrid trading system, which combines predictive coding and reinforcement learning algorithms for financial time series analysis. The system is based on three Transformer branches with a Diversified Multi-Head Attention (DMH-Attn) mechanism that enables the capturing of complex patterns and interdependencies between assets. Previously, we got acquainted with the theoretical aspects of the framework and implemented the DMH-Attn mechanisms. Today, we will talk about the model architecture and training.
Integrating MQL5 with data processing packages (Part 1): Advanced Data analysis and Statistical Processing
Integration enables seamless workflow where raw financial data from MQL5 can be imported into data processing packages like Jupyter Lab for advanced analysis including statistical testing.
Gain an Edge Over Any Market (Part III): Visa Spending Index
In the world of big data, there are millions of alternative datasets that hold the potential to enhance our trading strategies. In this series of articles, we will help you identify the most informative public datasets.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 85): Using Patterns of Stochastic-Oscillator and the FrAMA with Beta VAE Inference Learning
This piece follows up ‘Part-84’, where we introduced the pairing of Stochastic and the Fractal Adaptive Moving Average. We now shift focus to Inference Learning, where we look to see if laggard patterns in the last article could have their fortunes turned around. The Stochastic and FrAMA are a momentum-trend complimentary pairing. For our inference learning, we are revisiting the Beta algorithm of a Variational Auto Encoder. We also, as always, do the implementation of a custom signal class designed for integration with the MQL5 Wizard.
Neural Networks in Trading: Models Using Wavelet Transform and Multi-Task Attention
We invite you to explore a framework that combines wavelet transforms and a multi-task self-attention model, aimed at improving the responsiveness and accuracy of forecasting in volatile market conditions. The wavelet transform allows asset returns to be decomposed into high and low frequencies, carefully capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations.
ALGLIB library optimization methods (Part I)
In this article, we will get acquainted with the ALGLIB library optimization methods for MQL5. The article includes simple and clear examples of using ALGLIB to solve optimization problems, which will make mastering the methods as accessible as possible. We will take a detailed look at the connection of such algorithms as BLEIC, L-BFGS and NS, and use them to solve a simple test problem.
Population optimization algorithms: Simulated Isotropic Annealing (SIA) algorithm. Part II
The first part was devoted to the well-known and popular algorithm - simulated annealing. We have thoroughly considered its pros and cons. The second part of the article is devoted to the radical transformation of the algorithm, which turns it into a new optimization algorithm - Simulated Isotropic Annealing (SIA).
Neural Networks in Trading: Detecting Anomalies in the Frequency Domain (CATCH)
The CATCH framework combines Fourier transform and frequency patching to accurately identify market anomalies beyond the reach of traditional methods. Let us examine how this approach reveals hidden patterns in financial data.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 76): Using Patterns of Awesome Oscillator and the Envelope Channels with Supervised Learning
We follow up on our last article, where we introduced the indicator couple of the Awesome-Oscillator and the Envelope Channel, by looking at how this pairing could be enhanced with Supervised Learning. The Awesome-Oscillator and Envelope-Channel are a trend-spotting and support/resistance complimentary mix. Our supervised learning approach is a CNN that engages the Dot Product Kernel with Cross-Time-Attention to size its kernels and channels. As per usual, this is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.
Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part 13): Taking Our Crossover Strategy to New Dimensions (Part 2)
Join us in our discussion as we look for additional improvements to make to our moving-average cross over strategy to reduce the lag in our trading strategy to more reliable levels by leveraging our skills in data science. It is a well-studied fact that projecting your data to higher dimensions can at times improve the performance of your machine learning models. We will demonstrate what this practically means for you as a trader, and illustrate how you can weaponize this powerful principle using your MetaTrader 5 Terminal.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 45): Reinforcement Learning with Monte-Carlo
Monte-Carlo is the fourth different algorithm in reinforcement learning that we are considering with the aim of exploring its implementation in wizard assembled Expert Advisors. Though anchored in random sampling, it does present vast ways of simulation which we can look to exploit.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 6): Monomorphic Pull-Backs and Epimorphic Push-Outs
Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which is only recently getting some coverage in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to explore and examine some of its concepts & axioms with the overall goal of establishing an open library that provides insight while also hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 07): Dendrograms
Data classification for purposes of analysis and forecasting is a very diverse arena within machine learning and it features a large number of approaches and methods. This piece looks at one such approach, namely Agglomerative Hierarchical Classification.
An Introduction to the Study of Fractal Market Structures Using Machine Learning
The article attempts to examine financial time series from the perspective of self-similar fractal structures. Since we have too many analogies that confirm the possibility of considering market quotes as self-similar fractals, this allows us to think about the forecasting horizons of such structures.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 62): Using Patterns of ADX and CCI with Reinforcement-Learning TRPO
The ADX Oscillator and CCI oscillator are trend following and momentum indicators that can be paired when developing an Expert Advisor. We continue where we left off in the last article by examining how in-use training, and updating of our developed model, can be made thanks to reinforcement-learning. We are using an algorithm we are yet to cover in these series, known as Trusted Region Policy Optimization. And, as always, Expert Advisor assembly by the MQL5 Wizard allows us to set up our model(s) for testing much quicker and also in a way where it can be distributed and tested with different signal types.
Neural Networks in Trading: Mask-Attention-Free Approach to Price Movement Forecasting
In this article, we will discuss the Mask-Attention-Free Transformer (MAFT) method and its application in the field of trading. Unlike traditional Transformers that require data masking when processing sequences, MAFT optimizes the attention process by eliminating the need for masking, significantly improving computational efficiency.
Data Science and ML (Part 36): Dealing with Biased Financial Markets
Financial markets are not perfectly balanced. Some markets are bullish, some are bearish, and some exhibit some ranging behaviors indicating uncertainty in either direction, this unbalanced information when used to train machine learning models can be misleading as the markets change frequently. In this article, we are going to discuss several ways to tackle this issue.
Integrating Computer Vision into Trading in MQL5 (Part 2): Extending the Architecture to 2D RGB Image Analysis
Computer vision for trading: how it works and how to develop it step by step. We create an algorithm for recognition of RGB images of price charts using the attention mechanism and a bidirectional LSTM layer. As a result, we obtain a working model for forecasting the EURUSD price with the accuracy of up to 55% in the validation section.
Matrix Factorization: The Basics
Since the goal here is didactic, we will proceed as simply as possible. That is, we will implement only what we need: matrix multiplication. You will see today that this is enough to simulate matrix-scalar multiplication. The most significant difficulty that many people encounter when implementing code using matrix factorization is this: unlike scalar factorization, where in almost all cases the order of the factors does not change the result, this is not the case when using matrices.
Neural Network in Practice: Secant Line
As already explained in the theoretical part, when working with neural networks we need to use linear regressions and derivatives. Why? The reason is that linear regression is one of the simplest formulas in existence. Essentially, linear regression is just an affine function. However, when we talk about neural networks, we are not interested in the effects of direct linear regression. We are interested in the equation that generates this line. We are not that interested in the line created. Do you know the main equation that we need to understand? If not, I recommend reading this article to understanding it.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 7): Automatic Strategy Selection
This article demonstrates how to automatically identify potentially profitable trading strategies using MetaTrader 5. White-box solutions, powered by unsupervised matrix factorization, are faster to configure, more interpretable, and provide clear guidance on which strategies to retain. Black-box solutions, while more time-consuming, are better suited for complex market conditions that white-box approaches may not capture. Join us as we discuss how our trading strategies can help us carefully identify profitable strategies under any circumstance.
Population optimization algorithms: Boids Algorithm
The article considers Boids algorithm based on unique examples of animal flocking behavior. In turn, the Boids algorithm serves as the basis for the creation of the whole class of algorithms united under the name "Swarm Intelligence".
Adaptive Social Behavior Optimization (ASBO): Schwefel, Box-Muller Method
This article provides a fascinating insight into the world of social behavior in living organisms and its influence on the creation of a new mathematical model - ASBO (Adaptive Social Behavior Optimization). We will examine how the principles of leadership, neighborhood, and cooperation observed in living societies inspire the development of innovative optimization algorithms.
Resampling techniques for prediction and classification assessment in MQL5
In this article, we will explore and implement, methods for assessing model quality that utilize a single dataset as both training and validation sets.
Population optimization algorithms: Resistance to getting stuck in local extrema (Part II)
We continue our experiment that aims to examine the behavior of population optimization algorithms in the context of their ability to efficiently escape local minima when population diversity is low and reach global maxima. Research results are provided.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 1): Lack of Interoperable Metrics
There is a powerful and pervasive force quietly corrupting the collective efforts of our community to build reliable trading strategies that employ AI in any shape or form. This article establishes that part of the problems we face, are rooted in blind adherence to "best practices". By furnishing the reader with simple real-world market-based evidence, we will reason to the reader why we must refrain from such conduct, and rather adopt domain-bound best practices if our community should stand any chance of recovering the latent potential of AI.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 3): A Fresh Perspective on Irreducible Error
This article takes a fresh perspective on a hidden, geometric source of error that quietly shapes every prediction your models make. By rethinking how we measure and apply machine learning forecasts in trading, we reveal how this overlooked perspective can unlock sharper decisions, stronger returns, and a more intelligent way to work with models we thought we already understood.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 55): SAC with Prioritized Experience Replay
Replay buffers in Reinforcement Learning are particularly important with off-policy algorithms like DQN or SAC. This then puts the spotlight on the sampling process of this memory-buffer. While default options with SAC, for instance, use random selection from this buffer, Prioritized Experience Replay buffers fine tune this by sampling from the buffer based on a TD-score. We review the importance of Reinforcement Learning, and, as always, examine just this hypothesis (not the cross-validation) in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 9): Correlation-Based Feature Learning in Self-Supervised Finance
Self-supervised learning is a powerful paradigm of statistical learning that searches for supervisory signals generated from the observations themselves. This approach reframes challenging unsupervised learning problems into more familiar supervised ones. This technology has overlooked applications for our objective as a community of algorithmic traders. Our discussion, therefore, aims to give the reader an approachable bridge into the open research area of self-supervised learning and offers practical applications that provide robust and reliable statistical models of financial markets without overfitting to small datasets.
Self Optimizing Expert Advisors in MQL5 (Part 12): Building Linear Classifiers Using Matrix Factorization
This article explores the powerful role of matrix factorization in algorithmic trading, specifically within MQL5 applications. From regression models to multi-target classifiers, we walk through practical examples that demonstrate how easily these techniques can be integrated using built-in MQL5 functions. Whether you're predicting price direction or modeling indicator behavior, this guide lays a strong foundation for building intelligent trading systems using matrix methods.
Forecasting exchange rates using classic machine learning methods: Logit and Probit models
In the article, an attempt is made to build a trading EA for predicting exchange rate quotes. The algorithm is based on classical classification models - logistic and probit regression. The likelihood ratio criterion is used as a filter for trading signals.
Neural Networks in Trading: Memory Augmented Context-Aware Learning for Cryptocurrency Markets (Final Part)
The MacroHFT framework for high-frequency cryptocurrency trading uses context-aware reinforcement learning and memory to adapt to dynamic market conditions. At the end of this article, we will test the implemented approaches on real historical data to assess their effectiveness.