Articles on machine learning in trading

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Creating AI-based trading robots: native integration with Python, matrices and vectors, math and statistics libraries and much more.

Find out how to use machine learning in trading. Neurons, perceptrons, convolutional and recurrent networks, predictive models — start with the basics and work your way up to developing your own AI. You will learn how to train and apply neural networks for algorithmic trading in financial markets.

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Neural Networks in Trading: Models Using Wavelet Transform and Multi-Task Attention

Neural Networks in Trading: Models Using Wavelet Transform and Multi-Task Attention

We invite you to explore a framework that combines wavelet transforms and a multi-task self-attention model, aimed at improving the responsiveness and accuracy of forecasting in volatile market conditions. The wavelet transform allows asset returns to be decomposed into high and low frequencies, carefully capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 76):  Using Patterns of Awesome Oscillator and the Envelope Channels with Supervised Learning

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 76): Using Patterns of Awesome Oscillator and the Envelope Channels with Supervised Learning

We follow up on our last article, where we introduced the indicator couple of the Awesome-Oscillator and the Envelope Channel, by looking at how this pairing could be enhanced with Supervised Learning. The Awesome-Oscillator and Envelope-Channel are a trend-spotting and support/resistance complimentary mix. Our supervised learning approach is a CNN that engages the Dot Product Kernel with Cross-Time-Attention to size its kernels and channels. As per usual, this is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.
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Neural Networks in Trading: Detecting Anomalies in the Frequency Domain (CATCH)

Neural Networks in Trading: Detecting Anomalies in the Frequency Domain (CATCH)

The CATCH framework combines Fourier transform and frequency patching to accurately identify market anomalies beyond the reach of traditional methods. Let us examine how this approach reveals hidden patterns in financial data.
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Neural Networks in Trading: Mask-Attention-Free Approach to Price Movement Forecasting

Neural Networks in Trading: Mask-Attention-Free Approach to Price Movement Forecasting

In this article, we will discuss the Mask-Attention-Free Transformer (MAFT) method and its application in the field of trading. Unlike traditional Transformers that require data masking when processing sequences, MAFT optimizes the attention process by eliminating the need for masking, significantly improving computational efficiency.
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Neural Network in Practice: Secant Line

Neural Network in Practice: Secant Line

As already explained in the theoretical part, when working with neural networks we need to use linear regressions and derivatives. Why? The reason is that linear regression is one of the simplest formulas in existence. Essentially, linear regression is just an affine function. However, when we talk about neural networks, we are not interested in the effects of direct linear regression. We are interested in the equation that generates this line. We are not that interested in the line created. Do you know the main equation that we need to understand? If not, I recommend reading this article to understanding it.
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Matrix Factorization: The Basics

Matrix Factorization: The Basics

Since the goal here is didactic, we will proceed as simply as possible. That is, we will implement only what we need: matrix multiplication. You will see today that this is enough to simulate matrix-scalar multiplication. The most significant difficulty that many people encounter when implementing code using matrix factorization is this: unlike scalar factorization, where in almost all cases the order of the factors does not change the result, this is not the case when using matrices.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 45): Reinforcement Learning with Monte-Carlo

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 45): Reinforcement Learning with Monte-Carlo

Monte-Carlo is the fourth different algorithm in reinforcement learning that we are considering with the aim of exploring its implementation in wizard assembled Expert Advisors. Though anchored in random sampling, it does present vast ways of simulation which we can look to exploit.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 62): Using Patterns of ADX and CCI with Reinforcement-Learning TRPO

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 62): Using Patterns of ADX and CCI with Reinforcement-Learning TRPO

The ADX Oscillator and CCI oscillator are trend following and momentum indicators that can be paired when developing an Expert Advisor. We continue where we left off in the last article by examining how in-use training, and updating of our developed model, can be made thanks to reinforcement-learning. We are using an algorithm we are yet to cover in these series, known as Trusted Region Policy Optimization. And, as always, Expert Advisor assembly by the MQL5 Wizard allows us to set up our model(s) for testing much quicker and also in a way where it can be distributed and tested with different signal types.
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Artificial Coronary Circulation Algorithm (ACCS)

Artificial Coronary Circulation Algorithm (ACCS)

A metaheuristic algorithm that simulates the growth of coronary arteries in the human heart for optimization problems. It uses the principles of angiogenesis (the growth of new blood vessels), bifurcation (branching), and pruning of weak branches to find optimal solutions in a multidimensional space. Testing its effectiveness across a wide range of tasks yielded unexpected results.
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Population optimization algorithms: Resistance to getting stuck in local extrema (Part II)

Population optimization algorithms: Resistance to getting stuck in local extrema (Part II)

We continue our experiment that aims to examine the behavior of population optimization algorithms in the context of their ability to efficiently escape local minima when population diversity is low and reach global maxima. Research results are provided.
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Position Management: Scaling Into Winners With A Falling-Risk Pyramid

Position Management: Scaling Into Winners With A Falling-Risk Pyramid

We introduce CPyramidBridge, a thin MQL5 layer that maps bet-sizing results to CPyramidEngine. The bridge applies probability to initial lot sizing, enforces a capacity-aware entry gate, promotes add-ons from dynamic divergence, adapts the trailing stop to reserve estimates, and syncs signals on close, allowing an Expert Advisor to convert model confidence and concurrency into a structured, decreasing-risk pyramid.
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Adaptive Social Behavior Optimization (ASBO): Schwefel, Box-Muller Method

Adaptive Social Behavior Optimization (ASBO): Schwefel, Box-Muller Method

This article provides a fascinating insight into the world of social behavior in living organisms and its influence on the creation of a new mathematical model - ASBO (Adaptive Social Behavior Optimization). We will examine how the principles of leadership, neighborhood, and cooperation observed in living societies inspire the development of innovative optimization algorithms.
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Resampling techniques for prediction and classification assessment in MQL5

Resampling techniques for prediction and classification assessment in MQL5

In this article, we will explore and implement, methods for assessing model quality that utilize a single dataset as both training and validation sets.
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Data Science and ML (Part 36): Dealing with Biased Financial Markets

Data Science and ML (Part 36): Dealing with Biased Financial Markets

Financial markets are not perfectly balanced. Some markets are bullish, some are bearish, and some exhibit some ranging behaviors indicating uncertainty in either direction, this unbalanced information when used to train machine learning models can be misleading as the markets change frequently. In this article, we are going to discuss several ways to tackle this issue.
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Crystal Structure Algorithm (CryStAl)

Crystal Structure Algorithm (CryStAl)

This article presents two versions of the Crystal Structure Algorithm: the original and the modified version. The Crystal Structure Algorithm (CryStAl), published in 2021 and inspired by the physics of crystal structures, was positioned as a parameter-free metaheuristic for global optimization. However, testing revealed a critical problem with the algorithm. A modified version, CryStAlm, is also presented; it addresses the original's key shortcomings.
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Population optimization algorithms: Boids Algorithm

Population optimization algorithms: Boids Algorithm

The article considers Boids algorithm based on unique examples of animal flocking behavior. In turn, the Boids algorithm serves as the basis for the creation of the whole class of algorithms united under the name "Swarm Intelligence".
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Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 3): A Fresh Perspective on Irreducible Error

Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 3): A Fresh Perspective on Irreducible Error

This article takes a fresh perspective on a hidden, geometric source of error that quietly shapes every prediction your models make. By rethinking how we measure and apply machine learning forecasts in trading, we reveal how this overlooked perspective can unlock sharper decisions, stronger returns, and a more intelligent way to work with models we thought we already understood.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 85): Using Patterns of Stochastic-Oscillator and the FrAMA with Beta VAE Inference Learning

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 85): Using Patterns of Stochastic-Oscillator and the FrAMA with Beta VAE Inference Learning

This piece follows up ‘Part-84’, where we introduced the pairing of Stochastic and the Fractal Adaptive Moving Average. We now shift focus to Inference Learning, where we look to see if laggard patterns in the last article could have their fortunes turned around. The Stochastic and FrAMA are a momentum-trend complimentary pairing. For our inference learning, we are revisiting the Beta algorithm of a Variational Auto Encoder. We also, as always, do the implementation of a custom signal class designed for integration with the MQL5 Wizard.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 55): SAC with Prioritized Experience Replay

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 55): SAC with Prioritized Experience Replay

Replay buffers in Reinforcement Learning are particularly important with off-policy algorithms like DQN or SAC. This then puts the spotlight on the sampling process of this memory-buffer. While default options with SAC, for instance, use random selection from this buffer, Prioritized Experience Replay buffers fine tune this by sampling from the buffer based on a TD-score. We review the importance of Reinforcement Learning, and, as always, examine just this hypothesis (not the cross-validation) in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
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Integrating Computer Vision into Trading in MQL5 (Part 2): Extending the Architecture to 2D RGB Image Analysis

Integrating Computer Vision into Trading in MQL5 (Part 2): Extending the Architecture to 2D RGB Image Analysis

Computer vision for trading: how it works and how to develop it step by step. We create an algorithm for recognition of RGB images of price charts using the attention mechanism and a bidirectional LSTM layer. As a result, we obtain a working model for forecasting the EURUSD price with the accuracy of up to 55% in the validation section.
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Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 1): Lack of Interoperable Metrics

Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 1): Lack of Interoperable Metrics

There is a powerful and pervasive force quietly corrupting the collective efforts of our community to build reliable trading strategies that employ AI in any shape or form. This article establishes that part of the problems we face, are rooted in blind adherence to "best practices". By furnishing the reader with simple real-world market-based evidence, we will reason to the reader why we must refrain from such conduct, and rather adopt domain-bound best practices if our community should stand any chance of recovering the latent potential of AI.
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Self Optimizing Expert Advisors in MQL5 (Part 12): Building Linear Classifiers Using Matrix Factorization

Self Optimizing Expert Advisors in MQL5 (Part 12): Building Linear Classifiers Using Matrix Factorization

This article explores the powerful role of matrix factorization in algorithmic trading, specifically within MQL5 applications. From regression models to multi-target classifiers, we walk through practical examples that demonstrate how easily these techniques can be integrated using built-in MQL5 functions. Whether you're predicting price direction or modeling indicator behavior, this guide lays a strong foundation for building intelligent trading systems using matrix methods.
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Neural networks made easy (Part 61): Optimism issue in offline reinforcement learning

Neural networks made easy (Part 61): Optimism issue in offline reinforcement learning

During the offline learning, we optimize the Agent's policy based on the training sample data. The resulting strategy gives the Agent confidence in its actions. However, such optimism is not always justified and can cause increased risks during the model operation. Today we will look at one of the methods to reduce these risks.
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Neural Networks in Trading: Memory Augmented Context-Aware Learning for Cryptocurrency Markets (Final Part)

Neural Networks in Trading: Memory Augmented Context-Aware Learning for Cryptocurrency Markets (Final Part)

The MacroHFT framework for high-frequency cryptocurrency trading uses context-aware reinforcement learning and memory to adapt to dynamic market conditions. At the end of this article, we will test the implemented approaches on real historical data to assess their effectiveness.
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Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 9): Correlation-Based Feature Learning in Self-Supervised Finance

Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 9): Correlation-Based Feature Learning in Self-Supervised Finance

Self-supervised learning is a powerful paradigm of statistical learning that searches for supervisory signals generated from the observations themselves. This approach reframes challenging unsupervised learning problems into more familiar supervised ones. This technology has overlooked applications for our objective as a community of algorithmic traders. Our discussion, therefore, aims to give the reader an approachable bridge into the open research area of self-supervised learning and offers practical applications that provide robust and reliable statistical models of financial markets without overfitting to small datasets.
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Analyzing binary code of prices on the exchange (Part II): Converting to BIP39 and writing GPT model

Analyzing binary code of prices on the exchange (Part II): Converting to BIP39 and writing GPT model

Continuing tries to decipher price movements... What about linguistic analysis of the "market dictionary" that we get by converting the binary price code to BIP39? In this article, we will delve into an innovative approach to exchange data analysis and consider how modern natural language processing techniques can be applied to the market language.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 34): Price-Embedding with an Unconventional RBM

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 34): Price-Embedding with an Unconventional RBM

Restricted Boltzmann Machines are a form of neural network that was developed in the mid 1980s at a time when compute resources were prohibitively expensive. At its onset, it relied on Gibbs Sampling and Contrastive Divergence in order to reduce dimensionality or capture the hidden probabilities/properties over input training data sets. We examine how Backpropagation can perform similarly when the RBM ‘embeds’ prices for a forecasting Multi-Layer-Perceptron.
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The case for using a Composite Data Set this Q4 in weighing SPDR XLY's next performance

The case for using a Composite Data Set this Q4 in weighing SPDR XLY's next performance

We consider XLY, SPDR’s consumer discretionary spending ETF and see if with tools in MetaTrader’s IDE we can sift through an array of data sets in selecting what could work with a forecasting model with a forward outlook of not more than a year.
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Artificial Bee Hive Algorithm (ABHA): Theory and methods

Artificial Bee Hive Algorithm (ABHA): Theory and methods

In this article, we will consider the Artificial Bee Hive Algorithm (ABHA) developed in 2009. The algorithm is aimed at solving continuous optimization problems. We will look at how ABHA draws inspiration from the behavior of a bee colony, where each bee has a unique role that helps them find resources more efficiently.
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Neural Networks in Trading: Piecewise Linear Representation of Time Series

Neural Networks in Trading: Piecewise Linear Representation of Time Series

This article is somewhat different from my earlier publications. In this article, we will talk about an alternative representation of time series. Piecewise linear representation of time series is a method of approximating a time series using linear functions over small intervals.
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Anarchic Society Optimization (ASO) algorithm

Anarchic Society Optimization (ASO) algorithm

In this article, we will get acquainted with the Anarchic Society Optimization (ASO) algorithm and discuss how an algorithm based on the irrational and adventurous behavior of participants in an anarchic society (an anomalous system of social interaction free from centralized power and various kinds of hierarchies) is able to explore the solution space and avoid the traps of local optimum. The article presents a unified ASO structure applicable to both continuous and discrete problems.
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Successful Restaurateur Algorithm (SRA)

Successful Restaurateur Algorithm (SRA)

Successful Restaurateur Algorithm (SRA) is an innovative optimization method inspired by restaurant business management principles. Unlike traditional approaches, SRA does not discard weak solutions, but improves them by combining with elements of successful ones. The algorithm shows competitive results and offers a fresh perspective on balancing exploration and exploitation in optimization problems.
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Forecasting exchange rates using classic machine learning methods: Logit and Probit models

Forecasting exchange rates using classic machine learning methods: Logit and Probit models

In the article, an attempt is made to build a trading EA for predicting exchange rate quotes. The algorithm is based on classical classification models - logistic and probit regression. The likelihood ratio criterion is used as a filter for trading signals.
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The Group Method of Data Handling: Implementing the Combinatorial Algorithm in MQL5

The Group Method of Data Handling: Implementing the Combinatorial Algorithm in MQL5

In this article we continue our exploration of the Group Method of Data Handling family of algorithms, with the implementation of the Combinatorial Algorithm along with its refined incarnation, the Combinatorial Selective Algorithm in MQL5.
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Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 19): Naturality Square Induction

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 19): Naturality Square Induction

We continue our look at natural transformations by considering naturality square induction. Slight restraints on multicurrency implementation for experts assembled with the MQL5 wizard mean we are showcasing our data classification abilities with a script. Principle applications considered are price change classification and thus its forecasting.
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Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 21): Natural Transformations with LDA

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 21): Natural Transformations with LDA

This article, the 21st in our series, continues with a look at Natural Transformations and how they can be implemented using linear discriminant analysis. We present applications of this in a signal class format, like in the previous article.
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Neural Networks in Trading: Injection of Global Information into Independent Channels (InjectTST)

Neural Networks in Trading: Injection of Global Information into Independent Channels (InjectTST)

Most modern multimodal time series forecasting methods use the independent channels approach. This ignores the natural dependence of different channels of the same time series. Smart use of two approaches (independent and mixed channels) is the key to improving the performance of the models.
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Ensemble methods to enhance numerical predictions in MQL5

Ensemble methods to enhance numerical predictions in MQL5

In this article, we present the implementation of several ensemble learning methods in MQL5 and examine their effectiveness across different scenarios.
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Animal Migration Optimization (AMO) algorithm

Animal Migration Optimization (AMO) algorithm

The article is devoted to the AMO algorithm, which models the seasonal migration of animals in search of optimal conditions for life and reproduction. The main features of AMO include the use of topological neighborhood and a probabilistic update mechanism, which makes it easy to implement and flexible for various optimization tasks.
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Neural Networks in Trading: Effective Feature Extraction for Accurate Classification (Mantis)

Neural Networks in Trading: Effective Feature Extraction for Accurate Classification (Mantis)

Meet Mantis — a lightweight foundation model for time series classification based on a Transformer architecture, featuring contrastive pre-training and hybrid attention that deliver record-breaking accuracy and scalability.