Articles on machine learning in trading

In this article, we shift from Python research to native MQL5 engineering. We build the first module of the MMAR library: a shared constants header, an SVD-based OLS regression class, a Generalized Hurst Exponent estimator, and the partition analysis engine that computes the partition function, extracts tau(q), estimates H via zero-crossing interpolation, and scores multifractality through three diagnostic tests. Tested on 500,000 bars of EURUSD M10, the engine correctly classifies the data as multifractal in under four seconds. Part 4 of an eight-part series. Part 5 fits the tau(q) curve to four candidate distributions via the Legendre transform.

RSI accumulates losses in trending conditions by firing at every threshold crossing regardless of market regime. A Random Forest secondary classifier trained on 12 contextual features — RSI momentum slope, EMA50 trend velocity, ATR-normalised trend stretch, and nine others — filters raw signals and scales position size by classifier confidence on EURUSD H1. Results compare plain RSI, meta-filtered RSI, and bet-sized RSI across a 16-month out-of-sample period with per-trade metrics and drawdown diagnostics.

This guide integrates a trained XGBoost model (ONNX) into an SMC EA to evaluate trade setups before execution. The Python pipeline labels historical XAUUSD events and produces a 12-feature representation aligned with the EA. The result is a reproducible method to train, export, and embed the model so the EA can filter OB, FVG, and BOS signals programmatically.

The article attempts to examine financial time series from the perspective of self-similar fractal structures. Since we have too many analogies that confirm the possibility of considering market quotes as self-similar fractals, this allows us to think about the forecasting horizons of such structures.

Applying Python session boundaries to MQL5 broker timestamps misclassifies session membership by two to three hours on any non-UTC broker, corrupting session flags across the full backtest history. We implement CTimeFeatures.mqh, containing CRingBuffer and CTimeFeatures, with three EA-facing methods: Initialize (UTC offset capture and frequency gate configuration), Update (log return push to session-conditional ring buffers), and Calculate (cyclical encoding, session flags, and session volatility). The output is a flat double array drop-compatible with Python's get_time_features for sub-hourly, hourly, and daily timeframes.

With the multifractal parameters from Part 2 in hand, this article builds the full MMAR process. We construct the multiplicative cascade for trading time, generate Fractional Brownian Motion via Davies-Harte FFT, and combine both into X(t) = B_H[theta(t)]. A 100-path Monte Carlo simulation produces the volatility forecast, which we then pit against GARCH on the same EURUSD M5 data. Does Mandelbrot's fractal architecture outforecast Engle's conditional variance framework? Part 3 of a eight-part series leading to a native MQL5 library and Expert Advisor.

This article implements a Fenwick Tree (Binary Indexed Tree) for volume-aware money management inside an MQL5 Wizard Expert Advisor. We structure cumulative volume in O(log n) and apply four scaling modes—linear, conservative, aggressive, and mean-reversion—optionally gated by a lightweight 1D CNN. Practical tests compare the algorithm alone versus the CNN‑filtered approach to illustrate adaptive lot sizing and risk control under varying volume topologies.

Eagle Strategy is an algorithm that mimics the eagle's two-phase hunting strategy: global search via Levy flights using Mantegna method, alternating with intense local exploitation using the firefly algorithm, a mathematically sound approach to balancing exploration and exploitation, and a bioinspired concept that combines two natural phenomena into a single computational method.

Building on the partition function analysis from Part 1, this article deepens the theoretical foundation before completing the analytical pipeline. We first give a full treatment of the Hurst exponent: what it measures, what it implies about market memory, and why it matters for the MMAR. This is followed by an intuitive exploration of multifractal spectra and what f(α) reveals about volatility heterogeneity. We then move to implementation: extracting the scaling function τ(q), estimating H via R/S analysis, and fitting the multifractal spectrum across four candidate distributions. By the end, we have the complete parameter set needed to construct the MMAR process in Part 3. Part 2 of an eight-part series.

This work presents an end-to-end pipeline: collect MetaTrader 5 data, engineer entropy/volatility/trend features, train a PyTorch classifier, and expose predictions through a Flask API. An MQL5 EA posts rolling prices each tick, receives probability and regime, and applies adaptive position sizing and stop distances. The result is a clear recipe for integrating ML inference with MetaTrader 5.

This article starts the MMAR pipeline on EURUSD M5 data. We load market data via the MetaTrader5 Python API and run partition-function analysis with non-overlapping intervals to test for multifractal scaling. The result is an evidence-based decision on fractality, a prerequisite for building MMAR and for choosing whether to proceed beyond GARCH.

Downloading international monetary fund data in Python: Mining IMF data for use in macroeconomic currency strategies. How can macroeconomics help an ordinary and an algorithmic trader?

Biogeography-Based Optimization (BBO) is an elegant global optimization method inspired by natural processes of species migration between islands within archipelagos. The algorithm is based on a simple yet powerful idea: high-quality solutions actively share their characteristics, while low-quality ones actively adopt new features, creating a natural flow of information from the best solutions to the worst. A unique adaptive mutation operator provides an excellent balance between exploration and exploitation. BBO demonstrates high efficiency on a variety of tasks.

In this article, we will consider conformal predictions and the MAPIE library that implements them. This approach is one of the most modern ones in machine learning and allows us to focus on risk management for existing diverse machine learning models. Conformal predictions, by themselves, are not a way to find patterns in data. They only determine the degree of confidence of existing models in predicting specific examples and allow filtering for reliable predictions.

This article applies the Optimal Trading Rule from AFML Chapter 13 to set profit targets and stop-losses without in-sample calibration. We model post-entry P&L with a discrete Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process, run a 100,000-path search, and implement Python, multiprocessing, and a Numba @njit parallel kernel (242× faster). The result is an optimal (PT, SL) under three forecast specifications, constrained by the prop-firm daily loss limit.

This article builds the foundation layer of a twelve-part MQL5 market microstructure toolkit. It implements guarded math helpers (SafeDivide, SafeLog, SafeSqrt, SafeExp, SafeTanh), robust data validation (ValidateSymbolV2, SafeCopyClose), trimmed statistical estimators (robust mean var), a linear regression slope, shared structs, and an FFT. You compile a single include file that hardens indicators and expert advisors against silent numerical failures and standardizes data flow for later parts.

Our next focus in these series on ideas that can be rapidly prototyped with the MQL5 Wizard, is a Custom Trailing class that uses the Blooming Filter. Trailing Stop systems are an optional but very resourceful part to any trading system that we want to explore more in these series besides the traditional Entry Signals.

Let's try mining CFTC data, downloading COT and TFF reports via Python, connecting all this with MetaTrader 5 quotes and an AI model, and get forecasts. What are COT reports in the Forex market? How to use COT and TFF reports for forecasting?

Mining central bank balance sheet data provides a picture of global liquidity in the Forex market and key currencies. We combine data from the Fed, ECB, BOJ and PBoC into a composite index and use machine learning to uncover hidden patterns. This approach turns raw data into real trading signals by combining fundamental and technical analysis.

This article presents a custom MQL5 money management class that adapts position sizing to real-time volatility using a monotonic queue for O(N) sliding-window extremes. The class applies inverse volatility scaling and optionally validates risk with an RBF network. We show implementation details in the Optimize method and compare results with the inbuilt Size-Optimized class to assess latency and risk control benefits.

Adaptation of the classical CAPM model for the Forex currency market in MQL5. The indicator calculates expected return and risk premium based on historical volatility. The indicators rise at peaks and bottoms, reflecting the fundamental principles of pricing. Practical application for counter-trend and trend-following strategies, taking into account the dynamics of the risk-reward ratio in real time. The article includes mathematical apparatus and technical implementation.

The CATCH framework combines Fourier transform and frequency patching to accurately identify market anomalies beyond the reach of traditional methods. Let us examine how this approach reveals hidden patterns in financial data.

We continue to build the algorithms that form the basis of the DADA framework, which is an advanced tool for detecting anomalies in time series. This approach enables effective distinguishing random fluctuations from significant deviations. Unlike classical methods, DADA dynamically adapts to different data types, choosing the optimal compression level in each specific case.

Self-training EA with a neural network based on a state matrix. We combine Markov chains with a multilayer neural network MLP developed using the ALGLIB MQL5 library. How can Markov chains and neural networks be combined for Forex forecasting?

Computer vision for trading: how it works and how to develop it step by step. We create an algorithm for recognition of RGB images of price charts using the attention mechanism and a bidirectional LSTM layer. As a result, we obtain a working model for forecasting the EURUSD price with the accuracy of up to 55% in the validation section.