Articles on machine learning in trading

In this article, we will consider conformal predictions and the MAPIE library that implements them. This approach is one of the most modern ones in machine learning and allows us to focus on risk management for existing diverse machine learning models. Conformal predictions, by themselves, are not a way to find patterns in data. They only determine the degree of confidence of existing models in predicting specific examples and allow filtering for reliable predictions.

We continue the work started in the previous article on building the RefMask3D framework using MQL5. This framework is designed to comprehensively study multimodal interaction and feature analysis in a point cloud, followed by target object identification based on a description provided in natural language.

The article examines the topic of matching in causal inference. Matching is used to compare similar observations in a data set. This is necessary to correctly determine causal effects and get rid of bias. The author explains how this helps in building trading systems based on machine learning, which become more stable on new data they were not trained on. The propensity score plays a central role and is widely used in causal inference.

The last two articles considered the Soft Actor-Critic algorithm, which incorporates entropy regularization into the reward function. This approach balances environmental exploration and model exploitation, but it is only applicable to stochastic models. The current article proposes an alternative approach that is applicable to both stochastic and deterministic models.

We continue exploring hybrid graph sequence models (GSM++), which integrate the advantages of different architectures, providing high analysis accuracy and efficient distribution of computing resources. These models effectively identify hidden patterns, reducing the impact of market noise and improving forecasting quality.

This is my own algorithm. The article presents the Time Evolution Travel Algorithm (TETA) inspired by the concept of parallel universes and time streams. The basic idea of the algorithm is that, although time travel in the conventional sense is impossible, we can choose a sequence of events that lead to different realities.

In this article, we will consider the algorithm that demonstrates the most controversial results of all those discussed previously - the differential evolution (DE) algorithm.

In this article, I would like to introduce you to a new complex timeseries forecasting method, which harmoniously combines the advantages of linear models and transformers.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence today, language models (LLMs) are an important part of artificial intelligence, so we should think about how to integrate powerful LLMs into our algorithmic trading. For most people, it is difficult to fine-tune these powerful models according to their needs, deploy them locally, and then apply them to algorithmic trading. This series of articles will take a step-by-step approach to achieve this goal.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are a powerful class of probabilistic models designed to analyze sequential data, where observed events depend on some sequence of unobserved (hidden) states that form a Markov process. The main assumptions of HMM include the Markov property for hidden states, meaning that the probability of transition to the next state depends only on the current state, and the independence of observations given knowledge of the current hidden state.

We invite you to get acquainted with the NAFS (Node-Adaptive Feature Smoothing) method, which is a non-parametric approach to creating node representations that does not require parameter training. NAFS extracts features of each node given its neighbors and then adaptively combines these features to form a final representation.

You might not have noticed that the matrix modeling was a little strange, since only columns were specified, not rows and columns. This looks very strange when reading the code that performs matrix factorizations. If you were expecting to see the rows and columns listed, you might get confused when trying to factorize. Moreover, this matrix modeling method is not the best. This is because when we model matrices in this way, we encounter some limitations that force us to use other methods or functions that would not be necessary if the modeling were done in a more appropriate way.

This article introduces a fairly effective method of multi-agent trajectory forecasting, which is able to adapt to various environmental conditions.

The article describes the development of a multi-agent machine learning system for algorithmic trading on MetaTrader 5 based on reinforcement learning. The system has a three-tier architecture: memory neurons store experience, agents make independent decisions, and the collective mind combines them through weighted voting. The system is continuously improved through Q-learning, pruning of ineffective neurons, and evolutionary reduction of exploration.

This article introduces the Conformer algorithm originally developed for the purpose of weather forecasting, which in terms of variability and capriciousness can be compared to financial markets. Conformer is a complex method. It combines the advantages of attention models and ordinary differential equations.

In this discussion, we contrast the classical approach to time series cross-validation with modern alternatives that challenge its core assumptions. We expose key blind spots in the traditional method—especially its failure to account for evolving market conditions. To address these gaps, we introduce Effective Memory Cross-Validation (EMCV), a domain-aware approach that questions the long-held belief that more historical data always improves performance.

We determine the overbought and oversold condition of the market according to chaos theory: integrating the principles of chaos theory, fractal geometry and neural networks to forecast financial markets. The study demonstrates the use of the Lyapunov exponent as a measure of market randomness and the dynamic adaptation of trading signals. The methodology includes an algorithm for generating fractal noise, hyperbolic tangent activation, and moment optimization.

Let's try mining CFTC data, downloading COT and TFF reports via Python, connecting all this with MetaTrader 5 quotes and an AI model, and get forecasts. What are COT reports in the Forex market? How to use COT and TFF reports for forecasting?

Do you want to know how to benefit from the difference in interest rates? This article considers how to use swap arbitrage in Forex to earn stable profit every night, creating a portfolio that is resistant to market fluctuations.

Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which as of yet is relatively uncovered in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to introduce and examine some of its concepts with the overall goal of establishing an open library that provides insight while hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.

In previous articles, we discussed the Decision Transformer method and several algorithms derived from it. We experimented with different goal setting methods. During the experiments, we worked with various ways of setting goals. However, the model's study of the earlier passed trajectory always remained outside our attention. In this article. I want to introduce you to a method that fills this gap.

Soft Actor Critic is a Reinforcement Learning algorithm that utilizes 3 neural networks. An actor network and 2 critic networks. These machine learning models are paired in a master slave partnership where the critics are modelled to improve the forecast accuracy of the actor network. While also introducing ONNX in these series, we explore how these ideas could be put to test as a custom signal of a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.

We will add Deep Learning to those three examples that were published in previous articles and compare results with previous. The aim is to learn how to add DL to other EA.

We follow up on our last article, where we introduced the indicator pair of the MACD and the OBV, by looking at how this pairing could be enhanced with Machine Learning. MACD and OBV are a trend and volume complimentary pairing. Our machine learning approach uses a convolution neural network that engages the Exponential kernel in sizing its kernels and channels, when fine-tuning the forecasts of this indicator pairing. As always, this is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.

In this article, I would like to introduce you to an interesting trajectory prediction method developed to solve problems in the field of autonomous vehicle movements. The authors of the method combined the best elements of various architectural solutions.

This article presents two versions of the Crystal Structure Algorithm: the original and the modified version. The Crystal Structure Algorithm (CryStAl), published in 2021 and inspired by the physics of crystal structures, was positioned as a parameter-free metaheuristic for global optimization. However, testing revealed a critical problem with the algorithm. A modified version, CryStAlm, is also presented; it addresses the original's key shortcomings.

Transformer architecture-based models demonstrate high efficiency, but their use is complicated by high resource costs both at the training stage and during operation. In this article, I propose to get acquainted with algorithms that allow to reduce memory usage of such models.

In the context of reinforcement learning, model procrastination can be caused by several reasons. The article considers some of the possible causes of model procrastination and methods for overcoming them.