Articles on machine learning in trading

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence today, language models (LLMs) are an important part of artificial intelligence, so we should think about how to integrate powerful LLMs into our algorithmic trading. For most people, it is difficult to fine-tune these powerful models according to their needs, deploy them locally, and then apply them to algorithmic trading. This series of articles will take a step-by-step approach to achieve this goal.

In this article, we continue our exploration of ensemble models by discussing the concept of gates, specifically how they may be useful in combining model outputs to enhance either prediction accuracy or model generalization.

In this article we will talk about using space-time transformations to effectively predict upcoming price movement. To improve the numerical prediction accuracy in STNN, a continuous attention mechanism is proposed that allows the model to better consider important aspects of the data.

We continue the discussion about the use of piecewise linear representation of time series, which was started in the previous article. Today we will see how to combine this method with other approaches to time series analysis to improve the price trend prediction quality.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful statistical tools that identify underlying market states by analyzing observable price movements. In trading, HMMs enhance volatility prediction and inform trend-following strategies by modeling and anticipating shifts in market regimes. In this article, we will present the complete procedure for developing a trend-following strategy that utilizes HMMs to predict volatility as a filter.

This article is somewhat different from my earlier publications. In this article, we will talk about an alternative representation of time series. Piecewise linear representation of time series is a method of approximating a time series using linear functions over small intervals.

When exploring various model architecture designs, we often devote insufficient attention to the process of model training. In this article, I aim to address this gap.

The article presents an artificial electric field algorithm (AEFA) inspired by Coulomb's law of electrostatic force. The algorithm simulates electrical phenomena to solve complex optimization problems using charged particles and their interactions. AEFA exhibits unique properties in the context of other algorithms related to laws of nature.

Soft Actor Critic is a Reinforcement Learning algorithm that utilizes 3 neural networks. An actor network and 2 critic networks. These machine learning models are paired in a master slave partnership where the critics are modelled to improve the forecast accuracy of the actor network. While also introducing ONNX in these series, we explore how these ideas could be put to test as a custom signal of a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence today, language models (LLMs) are an important part of artificial intelligence, so we should think about how to integrate powerful LLMs into our algorithmic trading. For most people, it is difficult to fine-tune these powerful models according to their needs, deploy them locally, and then apply them to algorithmic trading. This series of articles will take a step-by-step approach to achieve this goal.

Exploring advanced techniques to integrate MQL5 with powerful data processing tools, this part focuses on efficient handling of big data to enhance trading analysis and decision-making.

The article reveals the potential of the ANS algorithm as an important step in the development of flexible and intelligent optimization methods that can take into account the specifics of the problem and the dynamics of the environment in the search space.

In this article, we present the implementation of several ensemble learning methods in MQL5 and examine their effectiveness across different scenarios.

We continue the series of articles on developing a trading robot in Python and MQL5. In this article, we will create a trading algorithm in Python.

Transformer architecture-based models demonstrate high efficiency, but their use is complicated by high resource costs both at the training stage and during operation. In this article, I propose to get acquainted with algorithms that allow to reduce memory usage of such models.

CatBoost is a powerful tree-based machine learning model that specializes in decision-making based on stationary features. Other tree-based models like XGBoost and Random Forest share similar traits in terms of their robustness, ability to handle complex patterns, and interpretability. These models have a wide range of uses, from feature analysis to risk management. In this article, we're going to walk through the procedure of utilizing a trained CatBoost model as a filter for a classic moving average cross trend-following strategy.

The Enhanced Trend Confirmation Technique combines price action, volume analysis, and machine learning to identify genuine market movements. It requires both price breakouts and volume surges (50% above average) for trade validation, while using an LSTM neural network for additional confirmation. The system employs ATR-based position sizing and dynamic risk management, making it adaptable to various market conditions while filtering out false signals.

When working with time series, we always use the source data in their historical sequence. But is this the best option? There is an opinion that changing the sequence of the input data will improve the efficiency of the trained models. In this article I invite you to get acquainted with one of the methods for optimizing the input sequence.

Proximal Policy Optimization is another algorithm in reinforcement learning that updates the policy, often in network form, in very small incremental steps to ensure the model stability. We examine how this could be of use, as we have with previous articles, in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.

Algorithmic trading system that combines volume analysis with machine learning techniques, specifically LSTM neural networks. Unlike traditional trading approaches that primarily focus on price movements, this system emphasizes volume patterns and their derivatives to predict market movements. The methodology incorporates three main components: volume derivatives analysis (first and second derivatives), LSTM predictions for volume patterns, and traditional technical indicators.

In the ever-changing world of trading, adapting to market shifts is not just a choice—it's a necessity. New patterns and trends emerge everyday, making it harder even the most advanced machine learning models to stay effective in the face of evolving conditions. In this article, we’ll explore how to keep your models relevant and responsive to new market data by automatically retraining.

In the first part of this article, we will dive into the world of chemical reactions and discover a new approach to optimization! Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) uses principles derived from the laws of thermodynamics to achieve efficient results. We will reveal the secrets of decomposition, synthesis and other chemical processes that became the basis of this innovative method.

Temporal Difference is another algorithm in reinforcement learning that updates Q-Values basing on the difference between predicted and actual rewards during agent training. It specifically dwells on updating Q-Values without minding their state-action pairing. We therefore look to see how to apply this, as we have with previous articles, in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.

The moving averages and the stochastic oscillator could be used to generate trend following trading signals. However, these signals will only be observed after the price action has occurred. We can effectively overcome this inherent lag in technical indicators using AI. This article will teach you how to create a fully autonomous AI-powered Expert Advisor in a manner that can improve any of your existing trading strategies. Even the oldest trading strategy possible can be improved.

The authors of the FreDF method experimentally confirmed the advantage of combined forecasting in the frequency and time domains. However, the use of the weight hyperparameter is not optimal for non-stationary time series. In this article, we will get acquainted with the method of adaptive combination of forecasts in frequency and time domains.

The article explores the development of a quantum-inspired trading system, transitioning from a Python prototype to an MQL5 implementation for real-world trading. The system uses quantum computing principles like superposition and entanglement to analyze market states, though it runs on classical computers using quantum simulators. Key features include a three-qubit system for analyzing eight market states simultaneously, 24-hour lookback periods, and seven technical indicators for market analysis. While the accuracy rates might seem modest, they provide a significant edge when combined with proper risk management strategies.

There are many posts in the MQL5 Forum asking for help calculating the slope of price changes. This article will demonstrate one possible way of calculating the angle formed by the changes in price in any market you wish to trade. Additionally, we will answer if engineering this new feature is worth the extra effort and time invested. We will explore if the slope of the price can improve any of our AI model's accuracy when forecasting the USDZAR pair on the M1.

In this article, we introduce a modified version of stepwise feature selection, implemented in MQL5. This approach is based on the techniques outlined in Modern Data Mining Algorithms in C++ and CUDA C by Timothy Masters.

Traditional machine learning teaches practitioners to be vigilant not to overfit their models. However, this ideology is being challenged by new insights published by diligent researches from Harvard, who have discovered that what appears to be overfitting may in some circumstances be the results of terminating your training procedures prematurely. We will demonstrate how we can use the ideas published in the research paper, to improve our use of AI in forecasting market returns.

We continue to explore the analysis and forecasting of time series in the frequency domain. In this article, we will get acquainted with a new method to forecast data in the frequency domain, which can be added to many of the algorithms we have studied previously.