Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

Embark on a compelling exploration where financial analysis meets algorithmic trading as we unravel the art of seamlessly uniting R and MetaTrader 5. This article is your guide to bridging the realms of analytical finesse in R with the formidable trading capabilities of MetaTrader 5.

Even with a positive-expectancy system, position sizing determines whether you thrive or collapse. It’s the pivot of risk management—translating statistical edges into real-world results while safeguarding your capital.

This project aims to leverage the MQL5 algorithm to develop a comprehensive set of analysis tools for MetaTrader 5. These tools—ranging from scripts and indicators to AI models and expert advisors—will automate the market analysis process. At times, this development will yield tools capable of performing advanced analyses with no human involvement and forecasting outcomes to appropriate platforms. No opportunity will ever be missed. Join me as we explore the process of building a robust market analysis custom tools' chest. We will begin by developing a simple MQL5 program that I have named, Chart Projector.

We are going to develop a modular trading system that combines Python for data analysis with MQL5 for trade execution. Four independent modules monitor different market aspects in parallel: volumes, arbitrage, economics and risks, and use RandomForest with 400 trees for analysis. Particular emphasis is placed on risk management, since even the most advanced trading algorithms are useless without proper risk management.

Price action is a fundamental approach for identifying profitable trading setups. However, manually monitoring price movements and patterns can be challenging and time-consuming. To address this, we are developing tools that analyze price action automatically, providing timely signals whenever potential opportunities are detected. This article introduces a robust tool that leverages fractal breakouts alongside EMA 14 and EMA 200 to generate reliable trading signals, helping traders make informed decisions with greater confidence.

We have previously considered various types of neural networks along with their implementations. In all cases, the neural networks were trained using the gradient decent method, for which we need to choose a learning rate. In this article, I want to show the importance of a correctly selected rate and its impact on the neural network training, using examples.

Moving from a simple trading script to a fully functioning Expert Advisor (EA) can significantly enhance your trading experience. Imagine having a system that automatically monitors your charts, performs essential calculations in the background, and provides regular updates every two hours. This EA would be equipped to analyze key metrics that are crucial for making informed trading decisions, ensuring that you have access to the most current information to adjust your strategies effectively.

The Kalman filter is a recursive algorithm used in algorithmic trading to estimate the true state of a financial time series by filtering out noise from price movements. It dynamically updates predictions based on new market data, making it valuable for adaptive strategies like mean reversion. This article first introduces the Kalman filter, covering its calculation and implementation. Next, we apply the filter to a classic mean-reversion forex strategy as an example. Finally, we conduct various statistical analyses by comparing the filter with a moving average across different forex pairs.

While some concepts may seem straightforward at first glance, bringing them to life in practice can be quite challenging. In the article below, we'll take you on a journey through our innovative approach to automating an Expert Advisor (EA) that skillfully analyzes the market using a mean reversion strategy. Join us as we unravel the intricacies of this exciting automation process.

In Part 38, we build a production-grade MT5 monitoring panel that converts raw ticks into actionable signals. The EA buffers tick data to compute tick-level VWAP, a short-window imbalance (flow) metric, and ATR-based position sizing. It then visualizes spread, ATR, and flow with low-flicker bars. The system calculates a suggested lot size and a 1R stop, and issues configurable alerts for tight spreads, strong flow, and edge conditions. Auto-trading is intentionally disabled; the focus remains on robust signal generation and a clean user experience.

Trading with probability is like walking on a tightrope - it requires precision, balance, and a keen understanding of risk. In the world of trading, the probability is everything. It's the difference between success and failure, profit and loss. By leveraging the power of probability, traders can make informed decisions, manage risk effectively, and achieve their financial goals. So, whether you're a seasoned investor or a novice trader, understanding probability is the key to unlocking your trading potential. In this article, we'll explore the exciting world of trading with probability and show you how to take your trading game to the next level.

Aligned with our goal of developing practical price-action tools, this article explores the creation of an EA that detects pin bar and engulfing patterns, using RSI divergence as a confirmation trigger before generating any trading signals.

Global market sessions shape the rhythm of the trading day, and understanding their overlap is vital to timing entries and exits. In this article, we’ll build an interactive trading sessions  EA that brings those global hours to life directly on your chart. The EA automatically plots color‑coded rectangles for the Asia, Tokyo, London, and New York sessions, updating in real time as each market opens or closes. It features on‑chart toggle buttons, a dynamic information panel, and a scrolling ticker headline that streams live status and breakout messages. Tested on different brokers, this EA combines precision with style—helping traders see volatility transitions, identify cross‑session breakouts, and stay visually connected to the global market’s pulse.

In this article, we will explore the application of regression models from the Scikit-learn package, attempt to convert them into ONNX format, and use the resultant models within MQL5 programs. Additionally, we will compare the accuracy of the original models with their ONNX versions for both float and double precision. Furthermore, we will examine the ONNX representation of regression models, aiming to provide a better understanding of their internal structure and operational principles.

This is a lazy algorithm that doesn't learn from the training dataset, it stores the dataset instead and acts immediately when it's given a new sample. As simple as it is, it is used in a variety of real-world applications.

Discovering a new world of automated trading on 3D bars. What does a trading robot look like on multidimensional price bars? Are "yellow" clusters of 3D bars able to predict trend reversals? What does multidimensional trading look like?

This article presents Fractal Reaction System, a compact MQL5 system that converts fractal pivots into actionable market-structure signals. Using closed-bar logic to avoid repainting, the EA detects Change-of-Character (ChoCH) warnings and confirms Breaks-of-Structure (BOS), draws persistent chart objects, and logs/alerts every confirmed event (desktop, mobile and sound). Read on for the algorithm design, implementation notes, testing results and the full EA code so you can compile, test and deploy the detector yourself.

In this article, we will automate the trading strategies with Parabolic SAR Strategy in MQL5: Crafting an Effective Expert Advisor. The EA will make trades based on trends identified by the Parabolic SAR indicator.

Markov chains are a powerful mathematical tool that can be used to model and forecast time series data in various fields, including finance. In financial time series modelling and forecasting, Markov chains are often used to model the evolution of financial assets over time, such as stock prices or exchange rates. One of the main advantages of Markov chain models is their simplicity and ease of use.

How about creating a system that would allow us to study the market when it is closed or even to simulate market situations? Here we are going to start a new series of articles in which we will deal with this topic.

In this article we will continue discussing the brute force approach. I will try to provide a better explanation of the pattern using the new improved version of my application. I will also try to find the difference in stability using different time intervals and timeframes.

In this article we take a look at how we can conduct permutation tests based on shuffled tick data on any expert advisor using only Metatrader 5.

We continue the series of articles on developing a trading robot in Python and MQL5. In this article, we will create a trading algorithm in Python.

Alan Andrews is one of the most famous "educators" of the modern world in the field of trading. His "pitchfork" is included in almost all modern quote analysis programs. But most traders do not use even a fraction of the opportunities that this tool provides. Besides, Andrews' original training course includes a description not only of the pitchfork (although it remains the main tool), but also of some other useful constructions. The article provides an insight into the marvelous chart analysis methods that Andrews taught in his original course. Beware, there will be a lot of images.