Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

Saplings Sowing and Growing up (SSG) algorithm is inspired by one of the most resilient organisms on the planet demonstrating outstanding capability for survival in a wide variety of conditions.

Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which as of yet is relatively uncovered in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to introduce and examine some of its concepts with the overall goal of establishing an open library that attracts comments and discussion while hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.

In this article we will implement the C_Mouse class. It provides the ability to program at the highest level. However, talking about high-level or low-level programming languages is not about including obscene words or jargon in the code. It's the other way around. When we talk about high-level or low-level programming, we mean how easy or difficult the code is for other programmers to understand.

The Kalman filter is a recursive algorithm used in algorithmic trading to estimate the true state of a financial time series by filtering out noise from price movements. It dynamically updates predictions based on new market data, making it valuable for adaptive strategies like mean reversion. This article first introduces the Kalman filter, covering its calculation and implementation. Next, we apply the filter to a classic mean-reversion forex strategy as an example. Finally, we conduct various statistical analyses by comparing the filter with a moving average across different forex pairs.

We are moving beyond simply viewing analyzed metrics on charts to a broader perspective that includes Telegram integration. This enhancement allows important results to be delivered directly to your mobile device via the Telegram app. Join us as we explore this journey together in this article.

Fibonacci retracements are a popular tool in technical analysis, helping traders identify potential reversal zones. In this article, we’ll explore how these retracement levels can be transformed into target variables for machine learning models to help them understand the market better using this powerful tool.

In this discussion, we will apply a simple Markov Chain on an RSI Indicator, to observe how price behaves after the indicator passes through key levels. We concluded that the strongest buy and sell signals on the NZDJPY pair are generated when the RSI is in the 11-20 range and 71-80 range, respectively. We will demonstrate how you can manipulate your data, to create optimal trading strategies that are learned directly from the data you have. Furthermore, we will demonstrate how to train a deep neural network to learn to use the transition matrix optimally.

We continue studying distributed Q-learning algorithms. In previous articles, we have considered distributed and quantile Q-learning algorithms. In the first algorithm, we trained the probabilities of given ranges of values. In the second algorithm, we trained ranges with a given probability. In both of them, we used a priori knowledge of one distribution and trained another one. In this article, we will consider an algorithm which allows the model to train for both distributions.

In this article, I will consider the Bat Algorithm (BA), which shows good convergence on smooth functions.

When working with machine learning models, it’s essential to ensure consistency in the data used for training, validation, and testing. In this article, we will create our own version of the Pandas library in MQL5 to ensure a unified approach for handling machine learning data, for ensuring the same data is applied inside and outside MQL5, where most of the training occurs.

In this article news filtration for individual news events based on their IDs will be implemented. In addition, previous SQL queries will be improved to provide additional information or reduce the query's runtime. Furthermore, the code built in the previous articles will be made functional.

In the previous article, we discussed a simple RNN which despite its inability to understand long-term dependencies in the data, was able to make a profitable strategy. In this article, we are discussing both the Long-Short Term Memory(LSTM) and the Gated Recurrent Unit(GRU). These two were introduced to overcome the shortcomings of a simple RNN and to outsmart it.

Aligned with our goal of developing practical price-action tools, this article explores the creation of an EA that detects pin bar and engulfing patterns, using RSI divergence as a confirmation trigger before generating any trading signals.

In this article we demonstrate how Hidden Markov Models trained using Python can be integrated into MetaTrader 5 applications. Hidden Markov Models are a powerful statistical tool used for modeling time series data, where the system being modeled is characterized by unobservable (hidden) states. A fundamental premise of HMMs is that the probability of being in a given state at a particular time depends on the process's state at the previous time slot.

Bayesian inference is the adoption of Bayes Theorem to update probability hypothesis as new information is made available. This intuitively leans to adaptation in time series analysis, and so we have a look at how we could use this in building custom classes not just for the signal but also money-management and trailing-stops.

Geometric patterns offer traders a concise way to interpret price action. Many analysts draw trend lines, rectangles, and other shapes by hand, and then base trading decisions on the formations they see. In this article, we explore an automated alternative: harnessing MQL5 to detect and analyze the most popular geometric patterns. We’ll break down the methodology, discuss implementation details, and highlight how automated pattern recognition can sharpen a trader's market insights.

We can now start creating an Expert Advisor for use in the replay/simulation system. However, we need something improved, not a random solution. Despite this, we should not be intimidated by the initial complexity. It's important to start somewhere, otherwise we end up ruminating about the difficulty of a task without even trying to overcome it. That's what programming is all about: overcoming obstacles through learning, testing, and extensive research.

Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which is only recently getting some coverage in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to explore and examine some of its concepts & axioms with the overall goal of establishing an open library that provides insight while also hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.

How about learning something new? In this article, you will learn how to convert scripts into services and why it is useful to do so.

Aligned with our vision of simplifying price action, we are pleased to introduce another tool that can significantly enhance your market analysis and help you make well-informed decisions. This tool displays key technical indicators such as previous day's prices, significant support and resistance levels, and trading volume, while automatically generating visual cues on the chart.

Having a proper understanding of different ideas allows us to do more with less effort. In this article, we'll look at why it's necessary to configure a template before the service can interact with the chart. Also, what if we improve the mouse pointer so we can do more things with it?

These advanced gradient-boosted decision tree techniques offer superior performance and flexibility, making them ideal for financial modeling and algorithmic trading. Learn how to leverage these tools to optimize your trading strategies, improve predictive accuracy, and gain a competitive edge in the financial markets.

Perceptrons, single hidden layer networks, can be a good segue for anyone familiar with basic automated trading and is looking to dip into neural networks. We take a step by step look at how this could be realized in a signal class assembly that is part of the MQL5 Wizard classes for expert advisors.

We continue studying the environment in reinforcement learning models. And in this article we will look at another algorithm – Go-Explore, which allows you to effectively explore the environment at the model training stage.

In this third part, we revisit the Simple Hedge and Simple Grid Expert Advisors (EAs) developed earlier. Our focus shifts to refining the Simple Hedge EA through mathematical analysis and a brute force approach, aiming for optimal strategy usage. This article delves deep into the mathematical optimization of the strategy, setting the stage for future exploration of coding-based optimization in later installments.

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) designed to model sequential data by effectively capturing long-term dependencies and addressing the vanishing gradient problem. In this article, we will explore how to utilize LSTM to predict future trends, enhancing the performance of trend-following strategies. The article will cover the introduction of key concepts and the motivation behind development, fetching data from MetaTrader 5, using that data to train the model in Python, integrating the machine learning model into MQL5, and reflecting on the results and future aspirations based on statistical backtesting.

In this article, we will create an arbitration system that remains legal in the eyes of brokers, creates thousands of synthetic prices on the Forex market, analyzes them, and successfully trades for profit.

This is a unique optimization algorithm inspired by the evolution of the turtle shell. The TSEA algorithm emulates the gradual formation of keratinized skin areas, which represent optimal solutions to a problem. The best solutions become "harder" and are located closer to the outer surface, while the less successful solutions remain "softer" and are located inside. The algorithm uses clustering of solutions by quality and distance, allowing to preserve less successful options and providing flexibility and adaptability.

In this article we will continue the simulator development stage. this time we will see how to effectively create a RANDOM WALK type movement. This type of movement is very intriguing because it forms the basis of everything that happens in the capital market. In addition, we will begin to understand some concepts that are fundamental to those conducting market analysis.

The flow of the market is determined by the forces between bulls and bears. There are specific levels that the market respects due to the forces acting on them. Fibonacci and VWAP levels are especially powerful in influencing market behavior. Join me in this article as we explore a strategy based on VWAP and Fibonacci levels for signal generation.

In this article, we will analyse the impact of dividend announcements on stock market returns and see how investors can earn more returns than those offered by the market when they expect a company to announce dividends. In doing so, we will also check the validity of the Efficient Market Hypothesis in the context of the Indian Stock Market.