Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

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Articles on mathematical models and laws of probability are interesting for many traders. Mathematics is the basis of technical indicators, and statistics is required to analyze trading results and develop strategies.

Read about the fuzzy logic, digital filters, market profile, Kohonen maps, neural gas and many other tools that can be used for trading.

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Utilizing CatBoost Machine Learning model as a Filter for Trend-Following Strategies

Utilizing CatBoost Machine Learning model as a Filter for Trend-Following Strategies

CatBoost is a powerful tree-based machine learning model that specializes in decision-making based on stationary features. Other tree-based models like XGBoost and Random Forest share similar traits in terms of their robustness, ability to handle complex patterns, and interpretability. These models have a wide range of uses, from feature analysis to risk management. In this article, we're going to walk through the procedure of utilizing a trained CatBoost model as a filter for a classic moving average cross trend-following strategy.
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Population optimization algorithms: Saplings Sowing and Growing up (SSG)

Population optimization algorithms: Saplings Sowing and Growing up (SSG)

Saplings Sowing and Growing up (SSG) algorithm is inspired by one of the most resilient organisms on the planet demonstrating outstanding capability for survival in a wide variety of conditions.
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Data Science and ML (Part 27): Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in MetaTrader 5 Trading Bots — Are They Worth It?

Data Science and ML (Part 27): Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) in MetaTrader 5 Trading Bots — Are They Worth It?

Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) are renowned for their prowess in detecting patterns in images and videos, with applications spanning diverse fields. In this article, we explore the potential of CNNs to identify valuable patterns in financial markets and generate effective trading signals for MetaTrader 5 trading bots. Let us discover how this deep machine learning technique can be leveraged for smarter trading decisions.
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MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 21): Adding Cyberpunk Theme to Regression Graphs

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 21): Adding Cyberpunk Theme to Regression Graphs

In this article, we enhance the regression graphing tool in MQL5 by adding a cyberpunk theme mode with neon glows, animations, and holographic effects for immersive visualization. We integrate theme toggling, dynamic backgrounds with stars, glowing borders, and neon points/lines, while maintaining standard mode compatibility. This dual-theme system elevates pair analysis with futuristic aesthetics, supporting real-time updates and interactions for engaging trading insights.
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Estimate future performance with confidence intervals

Estimate future performance with confidence intervals

In this article we delve into the application of boostrapping techniques as a means to estimate the future performance of an automated strategy.
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Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 2)

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 2)

Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which as of yet is relatively uncovered in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to introduce and examine some of its concepts with the overall goal of establishing an open library that attracts comments and discussion while hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.
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Using association rules in Forex data analysis

Using association rules in Forex data analysis

How to apply predictive rules of supermarket retail analytics to the real Forex market? How are purchases of cookies, milk and bread related to stock exchange transactions? The article discusses an innovative approach to algorithmic trading based on the use of association rules.
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Population optimization algorithms: Nelder–Mead, or simplex search (NM) method

Population optimization algorithms: Nelder–Mead, or simplex search (NM) method

The article presents a complete exploration of the Nelder-Mead method, explaining how the simplex (function parameter space) is modified and rearranged at each iteration to achieve an optimal solution, and describes how the method can be improved.
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Portfolio optimization in Forex: Synthesis of VaR and Markowitz theory

Portfolio optimization in Forex: Synthesis of VaR and Markowitz theory

How does portfolio trading work on Forex? How can Markowitz portfolio theory for portfolio proportion optimization and VaR model for portfolio risk optimization be synthesized? We create a code based on portfolio theory, where, on the one hand, we will get low risk, and on the other, acceptable long-term profitability.
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News Trading Made Easy (Part 5): Performing Trades (II)

News Trading Made Easy (Part 5): Performing Trades (II)

This article will expand on the trade management class to include buy-stop and sell-stop orders to trade news events and implement an expiration constraint on these orders to prevent any overnight trading. A slippage function will be embedded into the expert to try and prevent or minimize possible slippage that may occur when using stop orders in trading, especially during news events.
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From Novice to Expert: Parameter Control Utility

From Novice to Expert: Parameter Control Utility

Imagine transforming the traditional EA or indicator input properties into a real-time, on-chart control interface. This discussion builds upon our foundational work in the Market Periods Synchronizer indicator, marking a significant evolution in how we visualize and manage higher-timeframe (HTF) market structures. Here, we turn that concept into a fully interactive utility—a dashboard that brings dynamic control and enhanced multi-period price action visualization directly onto the chart. Join us as we explore how this innovation reshapes the way traders interact with their tools.
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Employing Game Theory Approaches in Trading Algorithms

Employing Game Theory Approaches in Trading Algorithms

We are creating an adaptive self-learning trading expert advisor based on DQN machine learning, with multidimensional causal inference. The EA will successfully trade simultaneously on 7 currency pairs. And agents of different pairs will exchange information with each other.
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Pattern Recognition Using Dynamic Time Warping in MQL5

Pattern Recognition Using Dynamic Time Warping in MQL5

In this article, we discuss the concept of dynamic time warping as a means of identifying predictive patterns in financial time series. We will look into how it works as well as present its implementation in pure MQL5.
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Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 40): Market DNA Passport

Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development (Part 40): Market DNA Passport

This article explores the unique identity of each currency pair through the lens of its historical price action. Inspired by the concept of genetic DNA, which encodes the distinct blueprint of every living being, we apply a similar framework to the markets, treating price action as the “DNA” of each pair. By breaking down structural behaviors such as volatility, swings, retracements, spikes, and session characteristics, the tool reveals the underlying profile that distinguishes one pair from another. This approach provides more profound insight into market behavior and equips traders with a structured way to align strategies with the natural tendencies of each instrument.
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Neural networks made easy (Part 34): Fully Parameterized Quantile Function

Neural networks made easy (Part 34): Fully Parameterized Quantile Function

We continue studying distributed Q-learning algorithms. In previous articles, we have considered distributed and quantile Q-learning algorithms. In the first algorithm, we trained the probabilities of given ranges of values. In the second algorithm, we trained ranges with a given probability. In both of them, we used a priori knowledge of one distribution and trained another one. In this article, we will consider an algorithm which allows the model to train for both distributions.
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Developing a Replay System (Part 27): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (I)

Developing a Replay System (Part 27): Expert Advisor project — C_Mouse class (I)

In this article we will implement the C_Mouse class. It provides the ability to program at the highest level. However, talking about high-level or low-level programming languages is not about including obscene words or jargon in the code. It's the other way around. When we talk about high-level or low-level programming, we mean how easy or difficult the code is for other programmers to understand.
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Developing a Replay System (Part 59): A New Future

Developing a Replay System (Part 59): A New Future

Having a proper understanding of different ideas allows us to do more with less effort. In this article, we'll look at why it's necessary to configure a template before the service can interact with the chart. Also, what if we improve the mouse pointer so we can do more things with it?
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Billiards Optimization Algorithm (BOA)

Billiards Optimization Algorithm (BOA)

The BOA method is inspired by the classic game of billiards and simulates the search for optimal solutions as a game with balls trying to fall into pockets representing the best results. In this article, we will consider the basics of BOA, its mathematical model, and its efficiency in solving various optimization problems.
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Data Science and ML (Part 29): Essential Tips for Selecting the Best Forex Data for AI Training Purposes

Data Science and ML (Part 29): Essential Tips for Selecting the Best Forex Data for AI Training Purposes

In this article, we dive deep into the crucial aspects of choosing the most relevant and high-quality Forex data to enhance the performance of AI models.
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Population optimization algorithms: Bat algorithm (BA)

Population optimization algorithms: Bat algorithm (BA)

In this article, I will consider the Bat Algorithm (BA), which shows good convergence on smooth functions.
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Brain Storm Optimization algorithm (Part II): Multimodality

Brain Storm Optimization algorithm (Part II): Multimodality

In the second part of the article, we will move on to the practical implementation of the BSO algorithm, conduct tests on test functions and compare the efficiency of BSO with other optimization methods.
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Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 1): Engle-Granger and Johansen Cointegration Tests

Statistical Arbitrage Through Cointegrated Stocks (Part 1): Engle-Granger and Johansen Cointegration Tests

This article aims to provide a trader-friendly, gentle introduction to the most common cointegration tests, along with a simple guide to understanding their results. The Engle-Granger and Johansen cointegration tests can reveal statistically significant pairs or groups of assets that share long-term dynamics. The Johansen test is especially useful for portfolios with three or more assets, as it calculates the strength of cointegrating vectors all at once.
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Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 18): Naturality Square

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 18): Naturality Square

This article continues our series into category theory by introducing natural transformations, a key pillar within the subject. We look at the seemingly complex definition, then delve into examples and applications with this series’ ‘bread and butter’; volatility forecasting.
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Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 17): Ticks and more ticks (I)

Developing a Replay System — Market simulation (Part 17): Ticks and more ticks (I)

Here we will see how to implement something really interesting, but at the same time very difficult due to certain points that can be very confusing. The worst thing that can happen is that some traders who consider themselves professionals do not know anything about the importance of these concepts in the capital market. Well, although we focus here on programming, understanding some of the issues involved in market trading is paramount to what we are going to implement.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 56): Bill Williams Fractals

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 56): Bill Williams Fractals

The Fractals by Bill Williams is a potent indicator that is easy to overlook when one initially spots it on a price chart. It appears too busy and probably not incisive enough. We aim to draw away this curtain on this indicator by examining what its various patterns could accomplish when examined with forward walk tests on all, with wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
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A New Approach to Custom Criteria in Optimizations (Part 1): Examples of Activation Functions

A New Approach to Custom Criteria in Optimizations (Part 1): Examples of Activation Functions

The first of a series of articles looking at the mathematics of Custom Criteria with a specific focus on non-linear functions used in Neural Networks, MQL5 code for implementation and the use of targeted and correctional offsets.
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Implementation of the Augmented Dickey Fuller test in MQL5

Implementation of the Augmented Dickey Fuller test in MQL5

In this article we demonstrate the implementation of the Augmented Dickey-Fuller test, and apply it to conduct cointegration tests using the Engle-Granger method.
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Visualizing deals on a chart (Part 2): Data graphical display

Visualizing deals on a chart (Part 2): Data graphical display

Here we are going to develop a script from scratch that simplifies unloading print screens of deals for analyzing trading entries. All the necessary information on a single deal is to be conveniently displayed on one chart with the ability to draw different timeframes.
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Developing a Replay System (Part 32): Order System (I)

Developing a Replay System (Part 32): Order System (I)

Of all the things that we have developed so far, this system, as you will probably notice and eventually agree, is the most complex. Now we need to do something very simple: make our system simulate the operation of a trading server. This need to accurately implement the way the trading server operates seems like a no-brainer. At least in words. But we need to do this so that the everything is seamless and transparent for the user of the replay/simulation system.
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Neural networks made easy (Part 39): Go-Explore, a different approach to exploration

Neural networks made easy (Part 39): Go-Explore, a different approach to exploration

We continue studying the environment in reinforcement learning models. And in this article we will look at another algorithm – Go-Explore, which allows you to effectively explore the environment at the model training stage.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 13): DBSCAN for Expert Signal Class

MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 13): DBSCAN for Expert Signal Class

Density Based Spatial Clustering for Applications with Noise is an unsupervised form of grouping data that hardly requires any input parameters, save for just 2, which when compared to other approaches like k-means, is a boon. We delve into how this could be constructive for testing and eventually trading with Wizard assembled Expert Advisers
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MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 4): Improving the Multi-Timeframe Scanner Dashboard with Dynamic Positioning and Toggle Features

MQL5 Trading Tools (Part 4): Improving the Multi-Timeframe Scanner Dashboard with Dynamic Positioning and Toggle Features

In this article, we upgrade the MQL5 Multi-Timeframe Scanner Dashboard with movable and toggle features. We enable dragging the dashboard and a minimize/maximize option for better screen use. We implement and test these enhancements for improved trading flexibility.
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Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 7): Multi, Relative and Indexed Domains

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 7): Multi, Relative and Indexed Domains

Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which is only recently getting some coverage in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to explore and examine some of its concepts & axioms with the overall goal of establishing an open library that provides insight while also hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.
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Integrate Your Own LLM into EA (Part 3): Training Your Own LLM with CPU

Integrate Your Own LLM into EA (Part 3): Training Your Own LLM with CPU

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence today, language models (LLMs) are an important part of artificial intelligence, so we should think about how to integrate powerful LLMs into our algorithmic trading. For most people, it is difficult to fine-tune these powerful models according to their needs, deploy them locally, and then apply them to algorithmic trading. This series of articles will take a step-by-step approach to achieve this goal.
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Developing a Replay System (Part 48): Understanding the concept of a service

Developing a Replay System (Part 48): Understanding the concept of a service

How about learning something new? In this article, you will learn how to convert scripts into services and why it is useful to do so.
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Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 13): Calendar Events with Database Schemas

Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 13): Calendar Events with Database Schemas

This article, that follows Category Theory implementation of Orders in MQL5, considers how database schemas can be incorporated for classification in MQL5. We take an introductory look at how database schema concepts could be married with category theory when identifying trade relevant text(string) information. Calendar events are the focus.
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Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 20): Algorithmic Trading Insights, A Faceoff Between LDA and PCA in MQL5

Data Science and Machine Learning (Part 20): Algorithmic Trading Insights, A Faceoff Between LDA and PCA in MQL5

Uncover the secrets behind these powerful dimensionality reduction techniques as we dissect their applications within the MQL5 trading environment. Delve into the nuances of Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), gaining a profound understanding of their impact on strategy development and market analysis.
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Developing a Replay System (Part 74): New Chart Trade (I)

Developing a Replay System (Part 74): New Chart Trade (I)

In this article, we will modify the last code shown in this series about Chart Trade. These changes are necessary to adapt the code to the current replay/simulation system model. The content presented here is intended solely for educational purposes. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.
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Turtle Shell Evolution Algorithm (TSEA)

Turtle Shell Evolution Algorithm (TSEA)

This is a unique optimization algorithm inspired by the evolution of the turtle shell. The TSEA algorithm emulates the gradual formation of keratinized skin areas, which represent optimal solutions to a problem. The best solutions become "harder" and are located closer to the outer surface, while the less successful solutions remain "softer" and are located inside. The algorithm uses clustering of solutions by quality and distance, allowing to preserve less successful options and providing flexibility and adaptability.
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Market Simulation (Part 15): Sockets (IX)

Market Simulation (Part 15): Sockets (IX)

In this article, we will discuss one of the possible solutions to what we have been trying to demonstrate—namely, how to allow an Excel user to perform an action in MetaTrader 5 without sending orders or opening or closing positions. The idea is that the user employs Excel to conduct fundamental analysis of a particular symbol. And by using only Excel, they can instruct an expert advisor running in MetaTrader 5 to open or close a specific position.