Forecast and levels for NZD - page 14

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.19 06:55

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand GDP and range price movement  

2020-03-18 21:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

  • past data is 0.8%
  • forecast data is 0.5%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was up 0.5 percent in the December 2019 quarter. This follows a revised quarterly growth rate of 0.8 percent in the September 2019 quarter. On an annual basis, GDP grew 2.3 percent over the year ended December 2019."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand GDP news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand GDP news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.31 10:06

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement  

2020-03-31 01:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

  • past data is -19.4
  • forecast data is -24.1
  • actual data is -63.5 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

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From roymorgan article :

  • "Confidence declined by 9.8% over the past week and is now at its lowest level since the inception of this survey in 1973. ‘Future financial conditions’ was the only subcomponent which was positive, gaining 0.6%. ‘Current financial conditions’ fell 16.1%. ‘Current economic conditions’ declined by 9.5%, following last week’s 37% decline. This is by far the weakest component of the survey. ‘Future economic conditions’ were a bit calmer, falling just 2.4%. ‘Time to buy a major household item’ fell the most over the past week, dropping by 23.8%. The four-week moving average for ‘inflation expectations’ was up by 0.1ppt to 4.1%."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.03 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, NZD/USD and Hang Seng Index (HSI): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-04-03 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 275K
  • forecast data is 163K
  • actual data is -701K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Hang Seng Index (HSI): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

Hang Seng Index (HSI): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.15 17:29

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and NZD/USD: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-04-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

  • past data is -0.4%
  • forecast data is -4.9%
  • actual data is -4.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From npr.org article :

  • "Retail spending is in a free fall — nosediving a record 8.7% last month — as more companies continue to furlough workers as stores, malls and restaurants remain shuttered across the country during the coronavirus pandemic. The March drop was the largest monthly fall since the Commerce Department began tracking retail sales three decades ago. The previous record was a 3.9% drop in November 2008, during the Great Recession. Economists are warning that April might show an even bigger decline in retail spending as shutdowns continue — and in some areas didn't begin in earnest until late March." 
  • "Best Buy, for example, said on Wednesday that it's temporarily furloughing 51,000 workers, including almost all part-time workers. It's retaining 82% of the chain's workforce, but many other retailers have fared worse. Macy's and other department stores have temporarily closed and furloughed millions of workers. J.C. Penney is considering filing for bankruptcy, Reuters reported on Tuesday."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

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NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

The forum threads
  1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
  2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
  3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
  4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

  1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
  2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
  3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
  4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
  5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.29 07:37

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement  

2020-04-28 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 531M
  • forecast data is 700M
  • actual data is 672M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Goods exports rose $215 million (3.8 percent) to $5.8 billion."."Goods imports rose $369 million (7.7 percent) to $5.1 billion."."The monthly trade balance was a surplus of $672 million.".

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Trade Balance news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Trade Balance news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.11 09:03

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement  

2020-05-11 02:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

  • past data is -66.6
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is -45.6 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "New Zealand business confidence improved strongly in May as the economy emerges from lockdown, a preliminary business outlook survey from ANZ showed Tuesday. The business confidence index surged 21 points to -45.6 in May from -66.6 in April. The 'own activity outlook' index advanced 13 points, still a net 42 percent expects lower activity for their firms in the year ahead."

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.13 06:56

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash Rate, RBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and range price movement  

2020-05-13 03:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Monetary Policy Committee has agreed to significantly expand the Large Scale Asset Purchase (LSAP) programme potential to $60 billion, up from the previous $33 billion limit. The LSAP programme includes NZ Government Bonds, Local Government Funding Agency Bonds and, now, NZ Government Inflation-Indexed Bonds."
  • "The Official Cash Rate (OCR) is being held at 0.25 percent in accordance with the guidance issued on 16 March. The Monetary Policy Committee is prepared to use additional monetary policy tools if and when needed, including reducing the OCR further, adding other types of assets to the LSAP programme, and providing fixed term loans to banks. The Committee’s decisions are guided by the Reserve Bank’s mandate and our decision making principles on the use of alternative monetary policy instruments."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by RBNZ  Official Cash Rate news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

New Zealand Producer Price Outputs Add 0.1% In Q1

Sergey Golubev, 2020.05.19 09:45

New Zealand Producer Price Outputs Add 0.1% In Q1


Producer price outputs in New Zealand were up 0.1 percent on quarter in the first quarter of 2020, Statistics New Zealand said on Tuesday - slowing from 0.4 percent in the three month prior.
Producer price inputs fell 0.3 percent on quarter after rising 0.1 percent in the previous three months.

On a yearly basis, outputs gained 2.2 percent and inputs were up 1.2 percent.
Farm expenses price index (FEPI) were flat on quarter and up 1.0 percent on year, while capital goods price index (CGPI) rose 0.6 percent on quarter and 2.9 percent on year.
Salaries and wages rose 0.3 percent on quarter and 2.5 percent on year.

source..


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.01 16:57

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and USD/JPY: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2020-06-01 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 41.5
  • forecast data is 43.5
  • actual data is 43.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The May PMI® registered 43.1 percent, up 1.6 percentage points from the April reading of 41.5 percent. This figure indicates expansion in the overall economy after April’s contraction, which ended a period of 131 consecutive months of growth. The New Orders Index registered 31.8 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the April reading of 27.1 percent."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

AUD/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

=========

The charts were made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.12 17:13

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD, USD/JPY and Brent Crude Oil: Michigan Consumer Sentiment

2020-06-12 15:00 GMT | [USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - UoM Consumer Sentiment] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed consumers.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "The preliminary report showed the consumer sentiment index for June climbed to 78.6 from 72.3 in May and 71.8 in April. Economists had expected the index to rise 75.0."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news events

==========

Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news events

rent Crude Oil: range price movement by UoM Consumer Sentiment news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

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