Forecast and levels for EURO - page 13

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 17:36

EUR/USD - bullish ranging near intra-day bearish ranging reversal (based on the article)

Intra-day H4 price is above 200 SMA and near above 100 SMA in the primary bullish area of the chart. The price is testing 1.1935 support level to below for the ranging market condition with 1.1890 bearish reversal level as a nearest taregt in this case.


  • "The reaction to the FOMC meeting on Wednesday may dictate which way the euro heads for the foreseeable future.” That was indeed the case for the week in terms of ‘tug-of-war’ as both top and bottom-side levels proved even further to be formidable to both sides of the market. The reaction to a directly hawkish Fed came just as the euro had been edging higher along the underside of a trend-line on the 4-hr chart. The sharp move lower quickly found support on the April trend-line where a bounce ensued on the two days to conclude the week where the euro ended up closing unchanged Friday."
  • "Something has to give at this point – either a strong breakout to the top-side or a clean slice through the April trend-line. Then we can likely expect momentum to pick up. It won’t be long before top and bottom-side thresholds intersect, and with a few more sessions of the same ole back-and-forth trading that will be the case. A ‘head-and-shoulders’ (H&S) formation is still in the works with the lower close on Friday. If we continue to jostle around it would be a welcomed event as pressure would be pent up into a wedge formation, leading to a potentially explosive move. The trend suggests a break higher, but with these type of funneling situations it is wise to wait for a break. A breakout above the 9/8 swing-high at 12092 will bring into focus the June 2010 monthly closing print at 12236, while an April trend-line break will quickly find 11825 to contend with (H&S neckline, a break below will confirm pattern), but not likely hold given the growing importance of the trend-line. On the downside in the event of a break, the area between 11700/11600 will come into focus as support."


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 08:25

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, September 24 - October 01 (based on the article)

EUR/USD dropped to lower ground, but gradually recovered, holding onto known ranges. The German elections provide a strong start to the week, which continues with inflation figures and other data. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. German elections: Sunday, results are due before markets open in Asia.All in all, a victory for Merkel would be positive for the euro, but this is mostly priced in.
  2. German Ifo Business Climate: Monday, 8:00. Germany’s No. 1 Think-tank’s business climate measure has been beating expectations in the past few months, pointing to optimism about the economy. The figure stood at 115.9 points in August, sticking to the highs.
  3. Italian CPI: Tuesday, 9:00. The third-largest economy in the euro-zone saw prices rising by 0.3% in August, better than early predictions. It is the first major country to publish inflation figures this month.
  4. Monetary data: Wednesday, 8:00. 
  5. German GfK Consumer Climate: Thursday, 6:00. A similar level is likely now.
  6. Spanish CPI (preliminary): Thursday, 7:00. In August, prices rose by 1.6%.
  7. German CPI (preliminary): Thursday: the German states release the data during the morning and the all-German figure is published at 12:00. Germany saw a modest rise in prices in August: 0.1%. The figure from Europe’s largest economy has the biggest weight in the euro-zone CPI.
  8. German Retail Sales: Friday, 6:00. 
  9. German Import Prices: Friday, 6:00.Import prices fell by 0.4% in July.
  10. French CPI (preliminary): Friday, 6:45. The second-largest economy in the euro-zone releases its initial estimate a few hours before the all-European number. Prices rose by 0.5% m/m in August. A slower level is likely now.
  11. French Consumer Spending: Friday, 6:45. Also in France, consumer spending is quite volatile: sales rose by 0.7% in July after a drop of the same scale in June.
  12. German Unemployment Change: Friday, 7:55. Germany enjoys a consistent drop in unemployment. The number of the unemployed dropped by 5K in July.
  13. CPI (preliminary): Friday, 9:00. After all four major countries released their data, we get the preliminary estimate for the full 19-country bloc. Headline CPI rose by 1.5% in August, higher than beforehand. Core CPI held its ground at 1.2%.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.25 17:18

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB President Draghi Speech and range price movement 

2017-09-25 14:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speech] = Speech about the economy and monetary policy before the European Parliament Economic and Monetary Affairs Committee, in Brussels. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "Euro area economic recovery is now firm and broad-based, and the latest data suggest the momentum is set to continue in the period ahead, European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said Monday."
  • "The ongoing recovery is, crucially, driven by domestic forces, and the labor market has notably improved. Overall, we are becoming more confident that inflation will eventually head to levels in line with our inflation aim, but we also know that a very substantial degree of monetary accommodation is still needed for the upward inflation path to materialize."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speech news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.26 16:53

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD: The Conference Board Consumer Confidence

2017-09-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 120.4
  • forecast data is 119.9
  • actual data is 119.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index®, which had improved marginally in August, declined slightly in September. The Index now stands at 119.8 (1985=100), down from 120.4 in August. The Present Situation Index decreased from 148.4 to 146.1, while the Expectations Index rose marginally from 101.7 last month to 102.2."

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EUR/USD M15: range price movement by The Conference Board Consumer Confidence news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.28 14:48

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and GBP/USD: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-09-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Final GDP]

  • past data is 3.0%
  • forecast data is 3.0%
  • actual data is 3.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Final GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased at an annual rate of 3.1 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "third" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent."

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EUR/USD M15: range price movement by U.S. Final GDP news events


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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Final GDP news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.30 08:19

EURUSD Weekly - daily ranging near bearish ranging reversal (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart is located near and above Senkou Span line this is the virtual border between the primary bearish and the primary bullish trend. If the price breaks 1.1730/1.1661 resistance levels so the daily bearish reversal will be started, otherwise - ranging within the levels.


  • "Looking ahead to next week the euro is set up for further losses as the path of least resistance has turned lower. Looking to a capper on any further strength there is resistance in the 11825-11880 area (old support becomes new resistance). As long as the euro stays below this area a downward bias will remain firmly intact.
  • Looking lower towards support eyes will be on the August low at 11662 and the 2016 high of 11616, of which the latter just happens to align almost precisely with the measured move target of the ‘head-and-shoulders’ pattern (determined by subtracting the height of the pattern from the neckline)."
  • "Bottom line: Shorts look set to have the upperhand as a fresh month gets underway as long as the euro remains capped by resistance. On weakness, we’ll be watching how the euro responds to a drop into support levels."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


 

As we can see on the chart:

already three-week candles go from the maximum all the lower and lower. But usually on Mondays there is a correction. Therefore, on Monday there will be a correction, and then from Tuesday the price will be lower and lower.

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.02 16:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD: ISM Manufacturing PMI

2017-10-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

  • past data is 58.8
  • forecast data is 57.9
  • actual data is 60.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in September, and theoverall economy grew for the 100th consecutive month, say the nation's supply executives in the latestManufacturing ISM® Report On Business®."
  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The September PMI® registered 60.8 percent, an increase of 2 percentage points from the August reading of 58.8 percent. The New Orders Index registered 64.6 percent, an increase of 4.3 percentage points from the August reading of 60.3 percent."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.06 14:53

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and USD/CNH: Non-Farm Payrolls

2017-10-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "The unemployment rate declined to 4.2 percent in September, and total nonfarm payroll employment changed little (-33,000), the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A sharp employment decline in food services and drinking places and below-trend growth in some other industries likely reflected the impact of Hurricanes Irma and Harvey."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.07 08:25

Weekly EUR/USD Outlook: 2017, October 08 - October 15 (based on the article)

EUR/USD was under pressure once again, dropping for the second week in a row. The upcoming week’s highlight is a speech by Mario Draghi. Here is an outlook for the highlights of this week.


  1. German Industrial Production: Monday, 6:00.
  2. Sentix Investor Confidence: Monday, 8:30. This 2800 strong survey has stabilized on high ground in recent months. Back in September, it reached 28.2 points. Another small rise to 28.6 is on the cards for October.
  3. German Trade Balance: Tuesday, 6:00. German exports keep its trade balance positive. In July, the country recorded a surplus of 19.5 billion, slightly below expectations. A surplus of 20.1 billion is expected now.
  4. French Industrial Production: Tuesday, 6:45. The second-largest economy in the euro-zone saw its industrial output rise by 0.5% in July. The same rate is expected now.
  5. French CPI (final): Thursday, 6:45. This is the final read for September. The drop of 0.1% that was originally reported will likely be confirmed in the final read.
  6. Industrial Production: Thursday, 9:00. The euro-zone saw a modest growth in in its industrial production in July: 0.1%. A higher growth rate of 0.6% is on the cards now, but it is important to note that expectations may change after both Germany and France release their own numbers.
  7. Mario Draghi talks: Thursday, 14:15. The President of the European Central Bank will participate in a panel in Washington. Draghi has an opportunity to hint about the upcoming ECB meeting, where a decision on reducing QE is expected. In early September, Draghi complained about the exchange rate, over and over again. While the markets ignored him at the time, EUR/USD is some 300 pips lower since then. Will he lower his tone about the euro? He may also be asked about the latest political developments, but will probably dodge these questions.
  8. German CPI (final): Friday, 6:00.Germany reported a small rise in price in September, 0.1%. The final read will likely confirm the initial one.

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


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