Forecast and levels for JPY - page 14

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.27 15:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): Unites States Durable Goods Orders

2019-11-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -1.2%
• forecast data is 0.0%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From cnbc article :

• "Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rebounded last month on a surge in demand for military aircraft. The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods — which are meant to last at least three years — rose 0.6% in October after dropping 1.4% in September. Orders for military aircraft soared 18.1%. Excluding defense, durable goods orders blipped up 0.1%."

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.11 16:09

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and USD/JPY: United States  Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2019-12-11 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

• past data is 0.4%
• forecast data is 0.1%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

• "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) rose 0.3 percent in November on a seasonally adjusted basis, after rising 0.4 percent in October, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index increased 2.1 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

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USD/CAD: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States  Consumer Price Index news event 

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread
   

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.10 15:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/JPY and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-01-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 256K
• forecast data is 162K
• actual data is 145K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.28 15:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): Unites States Durable Goods Orders

2020-01-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -2.1%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 2.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From fxstreet article :

• "Durable Goods Orders in the United States rose 2.4% on a monthly basis in December following November's decline of 3.1% (revised from 2%), the data published by the US Census Bureau showed on Tuesday. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.5%."

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.14 15:37

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and USD/CAD: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-02-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.6%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From marketwatch article :

• "Retail sales in the U.S. rose modestly in January as Americans spent more money eating out and furnishing their homes, but spending was relatively soft at the start of the new year."
  
• "Retail sales climbed 0.3% last month, the government said Thursday, matching the MarketWatch forecast."
  
• "Retail sales didn’t appear to add much to the economy in January. A more narrow measure of sales that is used in the government’s calculation of gross domestic product was basically flat in the month."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.04 18:17

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2020-03-04 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 55.5
• forecast data is 54.9
• actual data is 57.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

• "The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI® registered 57.3 percent, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the January reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.8 percent, 3.1 percentage points lower than the January reading of 60.9 percent, reflecting growth for the 127th consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 63.1 percent; 6.9 percentage points higher than the reading of 56.2 percent in January. The Employment Index increased 2.5 percentage points in February to 55.6 percent from the January reading of 53.1 percent. The Prices Index reading of 50.8 is 4.7 percentage points lower than the January’s 55.5 percent, indicating that prices increased in February for the 33rd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector reflected continued growth in February. Most respondents are concerned about the coronavirus and its supply chain impact. They also continue to have difficulty with labor resources. They do remain positive about business conditions and the overall economy."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

=========

The charts were made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.26 16:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-03-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

• past data is 282K
• forecast data is 1648K
• actual data is 3283K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

From official report :

• "In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,283,000, an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 695,000 in October of 1982. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 281,000 to 282,000. The 4-week moving average was 998,250, an increase of 765,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 232,250 to 232,500."
  
• "The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending March 14, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 14 was 1,803,000, an increase of 101,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since April 14, 2018 when it was 1,824,000. The previous week's level was revised up 1,000 from 1,701,000 to 1,702,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,731,000, an increase of 27,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 1,703,250 to 1,703,500."
  

==========

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download)
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ChandeQStick - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install
  

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.02 17:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-04-02 13:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

• past data is 3307K
• forecast data is 3600K
• actual data is 6648K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

From official report :

• "In the week ending March 28, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 6,648,000, an increase of 3,341,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous week's level was revised up by 24,000 from 3,283,000 to 3,307,000. The 4-week moving average was 2,612,000, an increase of 1,607,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 6,000 from 998,250 to 1,004,250."
  

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket- indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.15 17:29

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and NZD/USD: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-04-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.4%
• forecast data is -4.9%
• actual data is -4.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From npr.org article :

• "Retail spending is in a free fall — nosediving a record 8.7% last month — as more companies continue to furlough workers as stores, malls and restaurants remain shuttered across the country during the coronavirus pandemic. The March drop was the largest monthly fall since the Commerce Department began tracking retail sales three decades ago. The previous record was a 3.9% drop in November 2008, during the Great Recession. Economists are warning that April might show an even bigger decline in retail spending as shutdowns continue — and in some areas didn't begin in earnest until late March." 
• "Best Buy, for example, said on Wednesday that it's temporarily furloughing 51,000 workers, including almost all part-time workers. It's retaining 82% of the chain's workforce, but many other retailers have fared worse. Macy's and other department stores have temporarily closed and furloughed millions of workers. J.C. Penney is considering filing for bankruptcy, Reuters reported on Tuesday."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.30 19:08

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY and Dollar Index (DXY): United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-04-30 13:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

• past data is 4442K
• forecast data is 3500K
• actual data is 3839K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

From official report :

• "In the week ending April 25, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,839,000, a decrease of 603,000 from the previous week's revised level. The previous week's level was revised up by 15,000 from 4,427,000 to 4,442,000. The 4-week moving average was 5,033,250, a decrease of 757,000 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 3,750 from 5,786,500 to 5,790,250."
  

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket- indicator for MetaTrader 5