Forecast and levels for CAD - page 13

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.19 16:30

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada  Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement 

2020-02-19 13:30 GMT | [CAD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.0%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 2.4% on a year-over-year basis in January, up from a 2.2% gain in December. Excluding gasoline, the CPI rose 2.0% in January. On a seasonally adjusted monthly basis, the CPI rose 0.1% in January, following a 0.4% increase in December."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada CPI news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada CPI news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.04 17:37

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Overnight Rate and BOC Rate Statement

2020-03-04 15:00 GMT | [CAD - BoC Overnight Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 1.25%
  • actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - BoC Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to 1 ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly 1 ½ percent and the deposit rate is 1 percent. While Canada’s economy has been operating close to potential with inflation on target, the COVID-19 virus is a material negative shock to the Canadian and global outlooks, and monetary and fiscal authorities are responding. Before the outbreak, the global economy was showing signs of stabilizing, as the Bank had projected in its January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). However, COVID-19 represents a significant health threat to people in a growing number of countries. In consequence, business activity in some regions has fallen sharply and supply chains have been disrupted. This has pulled down commodity prices and the Canadian dollar has depreciated. Global markets are reacting to the spread of the virus by repricing risk across a broad set of assets, making financial conditions less accommodative. It is likely that as the virus spreads, business and consumer confidence will deteriorate, further depressing activity."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.26 16:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: United States Initial Jobless Claims

2020-03-26 12:30 GMT | [USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims]

  • past data is 282K
  • forecast data is 1648K
  • actual data is 3283K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - United States Initial Jobless Claims] = The number of individuals who filed for unemployment insurance for the first time during the past week.

==========

From official report :

  • "In the week ending March 21, the advance figure for seasonally adjusted initial claims was 3,283,000, an increase of 3,001,000 from the previous week's revised level. This marks the highest level of seasonally adjusted initial claims in the history of the seasonally adjusted series. The previous high was 695,000 in October of 1982. The previous week's level was revised up by 1,000 from 281,000 to 282,000. The 4-week moving average was 998,250, an increase of 765,750 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 232,250 to 232,500."
  • "The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 1.2 percent for the week ending March 14, unchanged from the previous week's unrevised rate. The advance number for seasonally adjusted insured unemployment during the week ending March 14 was 1,803,000, an increase of 101,000 from the previous week's revised level. This is the highest level for insured unemployment since April 14, 2018 when it was 1,824,000. The previous week's level was revised up 1,000 from 1,701,000 to 1,702,000. The 4-week moving average was 1,731,000, an increase of 27,500 from the previous week's revised average. The previous week's average was revised up by 250 from 1,703,250 to 1,703,500."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Initial Jobless Claims news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.27 15:34

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Overnight Rate and BOC Rate Statement

2020-03-27 13:00 GMT | [CAD - BoC Overnight Rate]

  • past data is 0.75%
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - BoC Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Bank of Canada today lowered its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points to ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent. This unscheduled rate decision brings the policy rate to its effective lower bound and is intended to provide support to the Canadian financial system and the economy during the COVID-19 pandemic. The Bank is playing an important complementary role in this effort. Its interest rate setting cushions the impact of the shocks by easing the cost of borrowing. Its efforts to maintain the functioning of the financial system are helping keep credit available to people and companies. The intent of our decision today is to support the financial system in its central role of providing credit in the economy, and to lay the foundation for the economy’s return to normalcy."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.03 15:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CAD, NZD/USD and Hang Seng Index (HSI): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-04-03 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 275K
  • forecast data is 163K
  • actual data is -701K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment fell by 701,000 in March, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.4 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. The changes in these measures reflect the effects of the coronavirus (COVID-19) and efforts to contain it. Employment in leisure and hospitality fell by 459,000, mainly in food services and drinking places. Notable declines also occurred in health care and social assistance, professional and business services, retail trade, and construction."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Hang Seng Index (HSI): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

Hang Seng Index (HSI): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.09 15:34

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Employment Change and range price movement 

2020-04-09 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 30.3K
  • forecast data is -427.0K
  • actual data is -1010.7K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment fell by more than one million in March (-1,011,000 or -5.3%). The employment rate—or the proportion of people aged 15 and older who were employed—fell 3.3 percentage points to 58.5%, the lowest rate since April 1997." 
  • "Of those who were employed in March, the number who did not work any hours during the reference week (March 15 to 21) increased by 1.3 million, while the number who worked less than half of their usual hours increased by 800,000. These increases in absences from work can be attributed to COVID-19 and bring the total number of Canadians who were affected by either job loss or reduced hours to 3.1 million." 
  • "The unemployment rate increased by 2.2 percentage points to 7.8%, the largest one-month increase since comparable data became available in 1976. Unemployment increased by 413,000 (+36.4%), largely due to temporary layoffs. In addition, the number of Canadians who had worked recently and wanted to work, but did not meet the official definition of unemployed, increased by 193,000."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada  Employment Change news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada Employment Change news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.03 16:25

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Overnight Rate and BOC Rate Statement

2020-06-03 15:00 GMT | [CAD - BoC Overnight Rate]

  • past data is 0.25%
  • forecast data is 0.25%
  • actual data is 0.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - BoC Overnight Rate] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent. The Bank Rate is correspondingly ½ percent and the deposit rate is ¼ percent."

==========

USD/CAD: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by BoC Overnight Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.06.30 19:26

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada GDP and range price movement 

2020-06-30 13:30 GMT | [CAD - GDP]

  • past data is -7.5%
  • forecast data is -12.5%
  • actual data is -11.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) dropped 11.6% in April, following a 7.5% decline in March. April marked the first full month of measures put in place to slow the spread of COVID-19. All 20 industrial sectors of the Canadian economy were down, producing the largest monthly decline since the series started in 1961. The economy was 18.2% below its February level, the month before the COVID-19 measures began."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada GDP news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada GDP news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.16 16:37

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and USD/CAD: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-07-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

  • past data is 12.1%
  • forecast data is 5.0%
  • actual data is 7.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Reflecting the reopening of businesses following the coronavirus-induced lockdowns, the Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing another substantial increase in U.S. retail sales in the month of June. The report said retail sales soared by 7.5 percent in June after skyrocketing by an upwardly revised 18.2 percent in May. The report showed a notable slowdown in the pace of growth by motor vehicles and parts dealers, although auto sales still jumped by 8.2 percent in June after spiking by 48.7 percent in May. Excluding sales by motor vehicles and parts dealers, retail sales shot up by 7.3 percent in May after soaring by 12.1 percent in May. Ex-auto sales were also expected to surge up by 5.0 percent."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

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NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.07.21 14:57

USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada Core Retail Sales and range price movement 

2020-07-21 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m]

  • past data is -22.0%
  • forecast data is 11.9%
  • actual data is 10.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CAD in our case)

[CAD - Core Retail Sales m/m] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From official report :

  • "Retail sales were up 18.7% in May to $41.8 billion. Motor vehicle and parts dealers led the growth, followed by an increase in sales in almost all other subsectors. Although sales increased in May, retail sales remain 20.0% below February levels."

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USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada Core Retail Sales news event 

USD/CAD: range price movement by Canada Core Retail Sales news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:


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