Forecast and levels for NZD - page 8

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.28 11:47

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Rate Statement, Official Cash Rate and range price movement 

2018-06-27 22:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Official Cash Rate (OCR) will remain at 1.75 percent for now. However, we are well positioned to manage change in either direction – up or down – as necessary."
  • "Our outlook for the New Zealand economy, as detailed in the May Monetary Policy Statement, remains intact. Employment is around its sustainable level and consumer price inflation remains below the 2 percent mid-point of our target, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy for some time to come."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Official Cash Rate news event 

NZD/USD intra-day chart by Metatrader 5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.12 16:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and GOLD: United States Consumer Price Index (CPI)

2018-07-12 13:30 GMT | [USD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.2%
  • forecast data is 0.2%
  • actual data is 0.1% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) increased 0.1 percent in June on a seasonally adjusted basis after rising 0.2 percent in May, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Over the last 12 months, the all items index rose 2.9 percent before seasonal adjustment."

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AUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

AUD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events

NZD/USD chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M5: range price movement by United States Consumer Price Index (CPI) news events


==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.25 07:28

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-07-24 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "New Zealand posted a merchandise trade deficit of NZ$113 million in June, Statistics New Zealand said on Wednesday - representing 2.3 percent on exports."
  • "The headline figure missed expectations for a surplus of NZ$200 million following the downwardly revised NZ$208 million surplus in May (originally NZ$294 million)."

==========

NZD/USD M1: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 

NZD/USD chart by MT5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.16 10:57

NZD/USD - bearish breakdown; 0.6544 is the key (based on the article)

NZD/USD Brainwashing chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The New Zealand Dollar may have scope for a corrective recovery before resuming the four-month down trend against its US counterpart. Downside momentum has stalled after prices plunged to the lowest level in close to three years, undone by the combination of a dovish RBNZ and global risk aversion."
  • "As it stands, near-term support is marked by the 50% Fibonacci expansion at 0.6505. A daily close below that exposes the 61.8% level at 0.6422. Alternatively, a turn back above the 38.2% Fib at 0.6589 paves the way for a test of the 0.6688-0.6738 zone (former range floor support, falling trend resistance)."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.22 07:02

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: NZ Retail Trade and range price movement 

2018-08-21 23:45 GMT | [NZD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of inflation-adjusted sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "The total volume of retail sales rose 1.1 percent."
  • "11 of the 15 retail industries had higher sales volumes."

==========

NZD/USD M15: range price movement by NZ Retail Trade news event 

NZD/USD M15 by Metatrader 5

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicator:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.09.26 11:51

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ANZ Business Confidence and range price movement 

2018-09-26 02:00 GMT | [NZD - ANZ Business Confidence]

  • past data is -50.3
  • forecast data is n/a
  • actual data is -38.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - ANZ Business Confidence] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, retailers, agricultural firms, and service providers.

==========

From official report :

  • "Headline business confidence bounced 12 points to -38 in September, its highest level since May. Firms’ views of their own activity lifted 4 points to a net 8% of firms expecting an improvement."
  • "Employment intentions and profit expectations also lifted, but investment intentions dropped further."
  • "The retail sector remains particularly downbeat in terms of their expectations about both their own activity and profitability."

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by ANZ Business Confidence news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.05 16:51

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and NZD/USD: Non-Farm Payrolls

2018-10-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

  • past data is 270K
  • forecast data is 185K
  • actual data is 134K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From forbes article :

  • "The old adage about not judging a book by its cover probably applies to Friday’s September payrolls report. Though the headline jobs growth number slid dramatically, there may be enough to paint a relatively positive picture about the economy."
  • "Most importantly, the report might push back some of the inflation fears that plagued Wall Street on Thursday. While payrolls rose a relatively muted 134,000 during the month, wages climbed only 2.8% year over year. That was down from 2.9% in August and basically in line with analysts’ expectations. Going into the report, there was a lot of concern that if wages rose faster than in August, the market might interpret that as a sign of the economy getting too hot. Judging from Friday’s data, it doesn’t look like there’s any need to turn up the air conditioning."
  • "Looking deeper into the data, the government upwardly revised job growth for both July and August, meaning that combined growth in those two months is now 87,000 above the previous mark. In August, a massive 270,000 jobs were created, while July was subdued at 165,000 but up nearly 20,000 from the previous report."

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GBP/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

GBP/USD M1: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

============

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

NZD/USD M1: range price movement by Non-Farm Employment Change news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 
Hi, how is the currency likely to be affected by the Trump's move to impose tariffs on some goods?
 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.10.25 06:16

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Overseas Merchandise Trade and range price movement 

2018-10-24 22:45 GMT | [NZD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is -1470M
  • forecast data is -1365M
  • actual data is -1560M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "New Zealand had a merchandize trade deficit of NZ$1.560 billion in September, Statistics New Zealand said on Thursday."
  • "Exports climbed an annual 14.0 percent to NZ$4.33 billion, beating forecasts for NZ$4.20 billion and up from NZ$4.05 billion in the previous month. Imports jumped 19.0 percent on year to NZ$5.89 billion versus forecasts for NZ$5.60 billion and up from NZ$5.54 billion a month earlier."

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by Overseas Merchandise Trade news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by Overseas Merchandise Trade news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.07 09:39

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Jobless Rate and range price movement 

2018-11-06 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Unemployment Rate]

if actual < forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Unemployment Rate] = Percentage of total work force that is unemployed and actively seeking employment during the previous quarters.

==========

From official report :

  • "The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent in the September 2018 quarter, Stats NZ said today. This is down from 4.4 percent last quarter and is the lowest unemployment rate since the June 2008 quarter, when it was 3.8 percent."
  • "The fall in the unemployment rate in the latest quarter reflected a fall in the number of unemployed people (down 13,000) and a strong rise in employment (up 29,000). This quarter’s employment rate rose to 68.3 percent, the highest rate since the series began more than 30 years ago."

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Jobless Rate news event 

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by New Zealand Jobless Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 


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