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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Employment Change and range price movement  

2019-02-06 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Employment Change]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Employment Change] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the reported month.

==========

From official report :

  • "The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in the December 2018 quarter, up from 4.0 percent (revised) last quarter, Stats NZ said today.""The rise in the unemployment rate reflected higher growth in unemployment (up 10,000), as a share of the overall growth in the labour force (up 12,000). Unemployment was largely influenced by more unemployed men (up 8,000). For women, unemployment rose 2,000. For men and women combined, there were 12,000 more unemployed youth (15–24-year-olds)."
  • "In the latest quarter, we adjusted some high-level data to improve its accuracy. This included figures for employed people, those not in the labour force, and hours worked. While this is not the first time we’ve made this type of adjustment, it is the first time we’ve done it before publishing. Previously, we made the adjustment a few quarters later."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Employment Change news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Employment Change news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Unemployment rate up to 4.3 percent | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose to 4.3 percent in the December 2018 quarter, up from 4.0 percent (revised) last quarter.
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

Your Bond Strategy For 2019 (based on the article)

Your Bond Strategy For 2019

Your Bond Strategy For 2019

  • "What might 2019 hold for the bond markets and how should you invest for it? The U.S. bond market in 2019 is getting perhaps a bit more interesting for investors. Yields aren't enticing by historical standards. Yet, they are higher than they have been for much of the decade given we're currently closer to 3% than 2% on Treasury 10-year bonds. Plus, if we truly are at the top of the cycle as the markets, and yield curve, seem to be suggesting, then perhaps bonds will form a more important part of your portfolio in 2019.” 
  • "First off, a quick reminder on what determines returns to a bond investment. First off, the current yield. This is, in a sense, your baseline. If you buy a bond with a current yield of 3% and essentially nothing happens over the coming months and years, then you'll earn 3%. But it's important not to fixate on current yield alone. On top of that initial yield there are two other things to consider that can move prices over the shorter term."
  • "So for, 2019 fixed income yields in the U.S. are potentially better than for some years over the last decade, but remain muted by historical standards. If you have confidence in a continuing expansion, then shorter-term bonds with some credit risk may make sense. If you see a recession coming, then intermediate government bonds may be the better move. If you are unsure, then various exchange-traded bond funds track the broader market without forcing you to take a view on specific market moves."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD - Slightly Bearish (based on the article)

  • "The near-term uptrend in the Australian Dollar quite literally fell apart this past week. AUD/USD descended through a rising trend line as it cleared a horizontal range of support between 0.71645 – 0.71452. However, the pair appeared to struggle achieving a daily close under the January 24 low at 0.7081. This further reinforced this area as support."
  • "A descent through it would probably be the confirmation needed to argue technically that the pair may extend its declines. This places near-term support as a range between 0.70211 and 0.69819 next. Meanwhile, a climb back above resistance would expose the late January/early February highs (0.72729 – 0.73). With that in mind, the AUD/USD technically outlook appears slightly bearish."

=========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108354
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - daily breakdown (based on the article

EURUSD daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Last week, the Euro furthered weakness off confluent trend-line resistance. The move from resistance already has big support in view as the trading range remains quite narrow in historical terms. Only a small handful of times has the 6-month range ever been this tight."
  • "In the current environment fade trades off significant levels have been the only tactical approach working. Next week may bring another such opportunity if either the lower parallel holds or price maintains the zone from around 11320 down to 11268, with price support the most meaningful."
  • "The 11300-level became important back in August, with the area just surrounding it having become an inflection point of support on numerous occasions since late October. The more times a level or price zone is tested the more meaningful it becomes."

============

The charts were made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Euro to Bounce off Support Next?
Euro to Bounce off Support Next?
  • Paul Robinson
  • www.dailyfx.com
Last week, the Euro furthered weakness off confluent trend-line resistance. The move from resistance already has big support in view as the trading range remains quite narrow in historical terms. Only a small handful of times has the 6-month range ever been this tight. In the current environment fade trades off significant levels have been the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108354
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: United Kingdom Gross Domestic Product (GDP) q/q and range price movement 

2019-02-11 09:30 GMT | [GBP - GDP]

  • past data is 0.6%
  • forecast data is 0.3%
  • actual data is 0.2% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From theguardian article :

  • "The Office for National Statistics reports that GDP shrank by 0.4% in the final month of 2018. That’s worse than expected -- economists had predicted that the economy might have flatlined during the month. This will intensify fears that Britain’s economy is suffering from Brexit anxiety, the trade war between the US and China, and weakness in the eurozone (where Italy has fallen into recession) and beyond."
  • "The UK economy suffered a sharp slowdown in the last quarter of 2018, only expanding by 0.2%."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. GDP news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. GDP news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
GDP q/q - economic news from the United Kingdom
GDP q/q - economic news from the United Kingdom
  • www.mql5.com
Gross Domestic Product q/q reflects the market value of all goods and services produced by all UK residents during a given quarter compared to the previous one. There are three approaches to the calculation of GDP: from production perspective, in terms of revenues received and in terms of expenditures incurred. Production approach is based on...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108354
Sergey Golubev  

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2014.05.23 17:02

Should You Exit Your FX Trade On Strength Or Weakness? (based on dailyfx article)

  • Why Traders Neglect the Exit
  • Two Exit Approaches
  • Specific Tools for Both Exit Strategies

“You can’t control what the market does, but you can control your reaction to the market. I examine what I do all the time. That’s what trading is all about.”
-Steve Cohen, Hedge Fund Manager


In my experience, the more years a trader has under their belt, the more attention they pay to the exit on their trade. It’s not that the entry isn’t important, it’s just that there’s a direct profit impact based on your exit. This article will breakdown two methodologies for exiting your forex trades so that you can choose the one that aligns best with your personality & goals.

Why Traders Neglect the Exit

As a trader, it’s easy to focus on entering the trade. After all, you’ve got to be in it to when it and the only way to be in it is to find an entry. And when it comes to entering into a trade, your mind is likely to race to different outcomes about whether or not this trade will be a home-run that “can’t fail” or whether you’re not 100% sure on the trade and therefore, should either hold-off or enter with a smaller trade size. For what it’s worth, regardless of your analysis, the second attitude used as an example is the healthier approach


However, it’s probably best to take the pressure of yourself regarding the entry. Why? Because, you likely will get at best a decent entry unless you’re counter-trend trading. It’s an irony or paradox of trading that most new traders fret about the entries but where they decide to exit is the most crucial point.

Two Exit Approaches

This part is simple. As far as I’m concerned, there are only two ways that you can decide to exit a trade (well, three if not having a plan is a way to exit). The first method benefits short term traders and that is exiting on strength in the direction of your entry. Therefore, if you’re buying, you can look for clear resistance points or other methods to exit when others are jumping in. The drawback to this methodology is that you could be exiting as the move is just getting started.

The second method is to the benefit of swing style or longer term traders. The preferred exit methodology for longer-term traders is to exit on weakness or a correction in the trend that you’re entering. Exiting on weakness has two distinct drawbacks and that is you either get taken out on a wick low before the trend resumes and / or, you find yourselves leaving a large portion of your paper profits on the table.

Specific Tools for Both Exit Strategies

We just discussed that you can either decide to exit your trades on strength or weakness. To exit on strength, here are a few methodologies you can use that I’ve found favorable over the years:

My preferred methodology is Pivot targets. In a normal uptrend, I’ll look to exit at the weekly R1 level and in a strong uptrend, my preferred exit is the R2 (reversed for downtrends with S1 & S2). The other two methods have been used successfully by many traders.

Emotionally, I believe it’s harder for new traders to exit on weakness. The reason is that it’s easy to beat yourself up for letting so much of your paper profits go away. In order to be comfortable exiting on strength, it’s best to not look at the chart after you exit for a few hours because you don’t want to beat yourself for taking money out of the market. That’s what we’re doing here in the first place!


Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108354
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBNZ Official Cash RateRBNZ Monetary Policy Statement and range price movement  

2019-02-13 01:00 GMT | [NZD - Official Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent. We expect to keep the OCR at this level through 2019 and 2020. The direction of our next OCR move could be up or down."
  • "Employment is near its maximum sustainable level. However, core consumer price inflation remains below our 2 percent target mid-point, necessitating continued supportive monetary policy."

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108354
Sergey Golubev  
What Does a Forex Spread Tell Traders (based on the article)

What is a spread in forex trading?

Every market has a spread and so does forex. A spread is simply defined as the price difference between where a trader may purchase or sell an underlying asset. Traders that are familiar with equities will synonymously call this the Bid: Ask spread. 

Below we can see an example of the forex spread being calculated for the EUR/USD. First, we will find the buy price at 1.13398 and then subtract the sell price of 1.3404. What we are left with after this process is a reading of .00006. Traders should remember that the pip value is then identified on the EUR/USD as the 4th digit after the decimal, making the final spread calculated as 0.6 pips. 


How to calculate the forex spread and costs

Before we calculate the cost of a spread, remember that the spread is just the ask price less (minus) the bid price of a currency pair. So, in our example above, 1.13404-1.13398 = 0.00006 or 0.6 pips.

Using the quotes above, we know we can currently buy the EUR/USD at 1.13404 and close the transaction at a sell price of 1.13398. That means as soon as our trade is open, a trader would incur 0.6 pips of spread. 

To find the total spread cost, we will now need to multiply this value by pip cost while considering the total amount of lots traded. When trading a 10k EUR/USD lot, you would incur a total cost of 0.00006 (0.6pips) X 10,000 (10k lot) = $0.6. If you were trading a standard lot (100,000 units of currency) your spread cost would be 0.00006pips (0.6pips) X 100,000 (1 standard lot) = $6.

If your account is denominated in another currency, like GBP, you would have to convert it to US Dollars.


Understanding a high spread and a low spread

It’s important to note that the FX spread can vary over the course of the day, ranging between a ‘high spread’ and a ‘low spread’.

This is because the spread can be influenced by multiple factors like volatility or liquidity. You will notice that some currency pairs, like emerging market currency pairs, have a greater spread than major currency pairs. Your major currency pairs trade in higher volumes compared to emerging market currencies, and higher trade volumes tend to lead to lower spreads under normal conditions.

High spread

A high spread means there is a large difference between the bid and the ask price. Emerging market currency pairs generally have a high spread compared to major currency pairs.

Low spread

A low spread means there is a small difference between the bid and the ask price. It is preferable to trade when spreads are low like during the major forex sessions. A low spread generally indicates that volatility is low and liquidity is high.

Keeping an eye on changes in the spread

News is a notorious time of market uncertainty. Releases on the economic calendar happen sporadically and depending if expectations are met or not, can cause prices to fluctuate rapidly. Just like retail traders, large liquidity providers do not know the outcome of news events prior to their release! Because of this, they look to offset some of their risk by widening spreads.

Spreads can cause margin calls

If you are currently holding a position and the spread widens dramatically, you may be stopped out of your position or receive a margin call. The only way to protect yourself during times of widening spreads is to limit the amount of leverage used in your account. It is also sometimes beneficial to hold onto a trade during times of spread-widening until the spread has narrowed.

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.22 13:12

Spread


The forum

  • spreadometer_v2.01 indicator fixed version - the post.
  • Spread recording fail - the thread with the indicator (fixing bug thread).
  • Spread and StopLoss indicator with alert - the thread 
  • Tools to monitor spread and swap - the thread with many good tools
  • Spread monitoring and show leverage tools - the thread 
  • FunIndicator indicator - the thread (monitor spread, swap etc for many pairs in one window).
  • Meh Spread Indicator thread 

The articles

CodeBase

============


What Does a Forex Spread Tell Traders?
What Does a Forex Spread Tell Traders?
  • David Bradfield
  • www.dailyfx.com
It’s important for traders to be familiar with FX spreads as they are the primary cost of trading currencies. In this article we explore how forex spreads work, and how to calculate costs and keep an eye on changes in the spread to maximize your trading success. What is a spread in forex trading? . A spread is simply defined as the price...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
108354
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD - bearish ranging for direction; 1.1440 and 1.1569 are the keys for the bullish reversal (based on the article)

EUR/USD chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Heading into last Monday, given the way the Euro has traded in recent months in this low volatility environment, the expectation was for a bounce from support instead of slicing on through. The bounce on Tuesday started to look like other prior lows in recent months, but the final days of the week began to demonstrate a change in character."
  • "The fact that EURUSD is struggling to bounce after selling off and hitting support suggests that sellers are growing in number and that a breakdown of meaning could be just around the bend. As long as price on a closing basis stays below the weekly high at 11341, a neutral bias at the least will be intact."
  • "A drop below 11215, the November low, will leave behind the support we saw hold last week and have the worst levels since June 2017 in play. As discussed on numerous occasions in recent weeks, Euro volatility is very low and due for a pop. A break of key support levels may do the trick in the days ahead."
  • "All-in-all, price action is showing signs of changing from the recent norm, which should have traders on higher-than-normal alert for momentum to develop. It could be another false signal, but then again it might not, and as the saying goes, ‘chance favors the prepared mind.’"

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro Flirting with Support Break
EURUSD Weekly Technical Forecast: Euro Flirting with Support Break
  • Paul Robinson
  • www.dailyfx.com
, the expectation was for a bounce from support instead of slicing on through. The bounce on Tuesday started to look like other prior lows in recent months, but the final days of the week began to demonstrate a change in character The fact that EURUSD is struggling to bounce after selling off and hitting support suggests that sellers are...
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