Press review - page 636

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.K. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2019-03-20 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the total value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.8% in February 2019, unchanged from January 2019."
  • "The Consumer Prices Index (CPI) 12-month rate was 1.9% in February 2019, up from 1.8% in January 2019."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily ranging near bullish reversal

2019-03-20 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

  • past data is -3.9M
  • forecast data is 0.5M
  • actual data is -9.6M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 9.6 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and range price movement  

2019-03-20 21:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "New Zealand economy grew 0.6 percent""service industries grew 0.9 percent, driving economic growth""agriculture, forestry, and fishing industry was down 0.6 percent""construction was up 1.8 percent""household spending was up 1.3 percent""investment spending was up 1.4 percent""GDP per capita rose 0.1 percent""real purchasing power of New Zealand’s income was down 0.2 percent."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

Gross domestic product | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
Find statistics on the gross domestic product (GDP), NZ's official measure of economic growth.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2019-03-21 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 38.3K
  • forecast data is 14.8K
  • actual data is 4.6K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

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From official report :

  • "Employment increased 4,600 to 12,763,400 persons. Full-time employment decreased 7,300 to 8,742,700 persons and part-time employment increased 11,900 to 4,020,700 persons."
  • "Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 pts to 4.9%."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
6202.0 - Labour Force, Australia, Feb 2019
  • www.abs.gov.au
FEBRUARY KEY FIGURES FEBRUARY KEY POINTS TREND ESTIMATES Employment increased 20,600 to 12,762,800 persons. Full-time employment increased 12,300 to 8,743,400 persons and part-time employment increased 8,200 to 4,019,300 persons. Unemployment increased 1,800 to 673,100 persons. Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.0%. Participation...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, Dax Index and Hang Seng IndexFederal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2019-03-20 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 2.50%
  • forecast data is 2.50%
  • actual data is 2.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

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From official report :

  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Dax Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Dax Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Hang Seng Index (HK50): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Hang Seng Index (HK50): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 
The Fed - Meeting calendars and information
  • www.federalreserve.gov
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

CAC 40 - daily strong bullish, weekly bullish reversal; 5443 is the key (based on the article)

CAC 40 weekly Ichimoku-Brainwashing chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The CAC backed off a little from around the trend-line extending over from May, but to keep it supported is the channel off the December low. It's one of the more impressive technical structures out there right now, with the ride higher having been extremely smooth. Stay within and the story remains the same, but fall outside then we may see some weakness set in. Generally speaking, market isn't very attractive from either side of the tape at the moment."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts – Backing Down into Important Channel Support
DAX 30 & CAC 40 Charts – Backing Down into Important Channel Support
  • Paul Robinson
  • www.dailyfx.com
It’s getting to be a thick spot for the DAX right here, with a lot going on big-picture and in the short to intermediate-term. Starting with the view from above, on the weekly chart the German benchmark is trading around the neckline of a broad head-and-shoulders pattern, the low from a year-ago, the 200-day, and underside of the trend-line...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

DAX Index - Daily Correction near Bearish Reversal; 11,239 is the key (based on the article)

DAX Index Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Last week’s strong closing candle is coming from a big area with long-term implications. The head-and-shoulders top I’ve been discussing for months had its neckline thoroughly tested after it broke in October. Retests are a common occurrence for these types of patterns before their full bearish potential is realized. In confluence with the neckline is the decisively falling 200-day MA, the underside of the 2011 trendline which was also broken in the fall, and the low from almost exactly one year ago today."
  • "What was helping keep sellers at bay in the interim, though, was the constructive trend off the December low, with the lower parallel of the channel acting the guide. With last week’s break of not only the lower parallel but also lows created over the past several weeks the path of least resistance is setting up for sellers to regain control."
  • "Given the magnitude of the topping pattern, anticipation is for the market to drop down to the 2009 bull market trend-line and lows from the 2015/16 sell-off. This would mean the DAX has another roughly 18-23% from current levels to go before possibly finding a bottom."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

DAX 30 Technical Outlook – Turn from Resistance Has Support Back in Focus
DAX 30 Technical Outlook – Turn from Resistance Has Support Back in Focus
  • Paul Robinson
  • www.dailyfx.com
, we discussed the obstacles which laid ahead in the form of confluent resistance between the trend-line running down off the June peak and the underside of the February 2016 trend-line. This turned out to be a key spot as anticipated, and with the quick trade lower has important support in focus. The area around 12100 put a floor in on a...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Official Cash RateRBNZ Rate Statement and range price movement  

2019-03-27 01:00 GMT | [NZD - RBNZ Official Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.75%
  • forecast data is 1.75%
  • actual data is 1.75% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - RBNZ Official Cash Rate] = Interest rate at which banks lend balances held at the RBNZ to other banks overnight.

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From official report :

  • "The Official Cash Rate (OCR) remains at 1.75 percent. Given the weaker global economic outlook and reduced momentum in domestic spending, the more likely direction of our next OCR move is down."
  • "We expect ongoing low interest rates, and increased government spending and investment, to support economic growth over 2019. Low interest rates, and continued employment growth, should support household spending and business investment. Government spending on infrastructure, housing, and transfer payments also supports domestic demand."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by RBNZ Official Cash Rate news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

EUR/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsECB President Draghi Speaks and range price movement 

2019-03-27 08:00 GMT | [EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks]

[EUR - ECB President Draghi Speaks] = As head of the ECB, which controls short term interest rates, he has more influence over the euro's value than any other person. Traders scrutinize his public engagements as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy.

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From rttnews article :

  • "European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Wednesday that the bank's monetary policy stance remained accommodative in the face of weaker growth outlook for the euro area and that the weakness in external demand is unlikely to be severe."
  • "Speaking at the ECB Watchers conference in Frankfurt, Draghi said, "We are now seeing a more persistent deterioration of external demand.""But a "soft patch" does not necessarily foreshadow a serious slump," he added."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB President Draghi Speaks news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread 
Monetary policy in the euro area
Monetary policy in the euro area
  • European Central Bank
  • www.ecb.europa.eu
The last year has seen a loss of growth momentum in the euro area, which has extended into 2019. This has been predominantly driven by pervasive uncertainty in the global economy that has spilled over into the external sector. So far, the domestic economy has remained relatively resilient and the drivers of the current expansion remain in...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113476
Sergey Golubev  

The Bank of England: A Forex Trader’s Guide (based on the article

WHAT IS THE BANK OF ENGLAND (BOE)?

Established in 1694, the Bank of England is the banker to, and owned by, the British government but is independent when setting monetary policy. Its roles include the setting of monetary policy - which includes targeting interest rates and using other tools to stimulate or contract the economy - producing the UK’s bank notes, supervising some bank payment systems, and ensuring the stability and safety of the financial system.

For traders, the BOE’s setting of monetary policy is a key factor to consider as it can have a big impact on the financial markets. Other factors, like the independence of the central bank are also important but are more prevalent issues in emerging market economies.

KEY ECONOMIC MANDATES OF THE BANK OF ENGLAND

According to the Bank of England, their two core purposes or mandates are:
1) Monetary stability - which is price stability or inflation
2) Financial stability - which is the stability and health of the economy 

February 2014 Bank of England Inflation Report:

February 2014 Bank of England Inflation Report



HOW BOE INTEREST RATES AFFECT THE POUND

Interest rate impact on the Pound

This is the general principle for how interest rates affect the Pound and stock market, although they sometimes react differently:

  • Higher interest rate expectations increase the strength of the Pound (GBP) and negatively affect equity values.
  • Lower interest rate expectations decrease the strength of the Pound (GBP) and positively affect equity values.

Interest rate impact on the economy

The Bank of England lowers interest rates when it is trying to stimulate the economy (GDP) and increases interest rates when it is trying to contain inflation caused by an economy operating above potential (overheating).

Lower interest rates stimulate an economy in a few ways:

  • Businesses can borrow money and invest in projects that will receive more than the risk borrowing rate.
  • When interest rates are lower the stock market is discounted at a lower rate, leading to an appreciation in stock market values which causes a wealth effect.
  • People invest their money into the economy (stocks and other assets) because they can earn more in these assets than at currently low interest rates.
The Bank of England: A Forex Trader’s Guide
The Bank of England: A Forex Trader’s Guide
  • David Bradfield
  • www.dailyfx.com
The Bank of England (BOE) is the UK’s central bank. Their mission is to promote and maintain monetary and financial stability. It is important for forex traders to keep up to date with the Bank of England’s latest changes to What is the Bank of England (BOE)? Established in 1694, the Bank of England is the banker to, and owned by, the British...