Forecast and levels for AUD - page 18

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.16 10:18

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2019-05-16 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 27.7K
  • forecast data is 15.2K
  • actual data is 28.4K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment increased 28,400 to 12,822,900 persons. Full-time employment decreased 6,300 to 8,792,700 persons and part-time employment increased 34,700 to 4,030,200 persons."
  • "Unemployment rate increased 0.1 pts to 5.2%."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Fundamental Analysis - AUD

Sarowar Jahan, 2019.05.28 21:54

Date: 28-May-2019

AUD - Very Bearish


At their May meeting, the RBA stressed that in order to avoid any future easing, there would have to be a marked improvement in Australia's labour market.


However, last week's employment report for April saw the Unemployment Rate tick higher to 5.2% from March's 5.0%. Furthermore, although Employment Change was positive, a deeper look into the report shows a gloomier picture than the headline would suggest with Full-Time Employment Change printing at -6.3K.


Given Australia's overall disappointing April employment report, the market now expects the RBA to ease rates at their June meeting. According to ASX 30 Day Interbank Cash Rate Futures, as of 20th May, the market is pricing in a 69% probability of a 25 basis point cut on June 4th.


Elsewhere, tensions between the US and China over trade negotiations continue to escalate, further supporting our bearish bias.

What do you think?


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.30 08:29

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and range price movement 

2019-05-30 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

  • past data is -13.4%
  • forecast data is 0.1%
  • actual data is -4.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

==========

From official report :

  • "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 0.6% in April."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved fell 4.7% in April."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.04 07:36

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia Interest Rate Decision and range price movement 

2019-06-04 04:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.25%
  • actual data is 1.25% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.25 per cent. The Board took this decision to support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target."
  • "Today's decision to lower the cash rate will help make further inroads into the spare capacity in the economy. It will assist with faster progress in reducing unemployment and achieve more assured progress towards the inflation target. The Board will continue to monitor developments in the labour market closely and adjust monetary policy to support sustainable growth in the economy and the achievement of the inflation target over time."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Cash Rate news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.05 07:12

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and range price movement 

2019-06-05 01:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Australian economy grew by 0.4% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the March quarter."
  • "Government final consumption expenditure contributed 0.2 percentage points to GDP growth."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia GDP news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia GDP news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.06.09 08:44

AUD/USD - bear market rally; 0.7068 is the key for the bullish reversal (based on the article)

AUD/USD Brainwashing chart by Metatrader 5

  • "The Australian Dollar is retesting support-turned-resistance marking the underside of a broken Descending Triangle chart formation in the 0.6978-0.7021 area. Prices bounced after finding support above the 0.68 figure, marking a bottom with the formation a bullish Morning Star candlestick pattern and a break of trend line resistance set from the mid-April swing high. A push beyond this barrier would cast doubt on the Triangle breakout’s validity as a bearish continuation signal. Neutralizing the near-term downside bias in earnest will probably require a step further to clear downward-sloping resistance capping gains since December 2018, now just above the 0.71 figure. However, zooming into the 4-hour chart hints that upside momentum may already be fading."
  • "AUDUSD put in a dramatic-looking Shooting Star candlestick on a test of resistance at the 0.7008. This coupled with overt negative RSI divergence suggests the move higher has run out of steam. Confirming that the broader downtrend has commenced calls for a break of upward-sloping support guiding gains from late-May lows, now at 0.6951."
  • "If a bearish reversal does materialize – cementing recent gains as corrective in the context of an ongoing decline – then there seems to be scope for significant follow-on weakness. Initial support lines up in the 0.6827-64 area, running from the January 2016 low to last month’s swing bottom. Triangle setup calls for deeper losses however, implying a measured move to the 0.67 figure."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread



 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.02 15:51

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Cash Rate and range price movement 

2019-07-02 04:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.25%
  • forecast data is 1.00%
  • actual data is 1.00% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 1.00 per cent. This follows a similar reduction at the Board's June meeting. This easing of monetary policy will support employment growth and provide greater confidence that inflation will be consistent with the medium-term target."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Cash Rate news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.03 10:03

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Building Approvals and range price movement 

2019-07-03 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Building Approvals]

  • past data is -3.4%
  • forecast data is 0.0%
  • actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Building Approvals] = Change in the number of new building approvals issued.

==========

From official report :

  • "The trend estimate for total dwellings approved fell 0.5% in May."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate for total dwellings approved rose 0.7% in May."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Building Approvals news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Building Approvals news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.10 10:22

AUD/USD - bearish trend to be started; 0.6831 is the key (based on  the article)

AUD/USD market condition charts by Metatrader 5

  • "The Australian Dollar tracked lower after a retest of support-turned-resistance at the bottom of a bearish Descending Triangle chart pattern, as expected. Prices attempted to recover after breaking counter-trend support and even managed to set a higher swing top, but the effort fizzled. A bearish Evening Star coupled with negative RSI divergence now reinforces the case for a reversal."
  • "From here, the next significant layer of support seems to be in the 0.6827-65 area, marked by recent attempts to challenge trend-defining support at the January 2016 low. Securing a break below that on a daily closing basis probably opens the door for a challenge of the 2019 spike low at 0.6744. The outermost layer of downward-sloping trend resistance is now at 0.7088."
  • "Zooming out to the weekly chart, overall technical positioning continues to suggest the AUDUSD downtrend started in early 2018 has resumed following a period of congestion. While the support at 0.6827 is yet to be broken, measuring the width of the Descending Triangle pattern defining the digestive period prior to breakdown implies a steeper decline to test the 0.67 figure."

=========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.07.18 08:27

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2019-07-18 01:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 45.3K
  • forecast data is 27.8K
  • actual data is 0.5K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment increased 500 to 12,871,700 persons. Full-time employment increased 21,100 to 8,815,600 persons and part-time employment decreased 20,600 to 4,056,100 persons."
  • "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Employment Change news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 


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