Press review - page 628

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: New Zealand Overseas Current Account and range price movement 

2018-12-18 21:45 GMT | [NZD - Current Account]

  • past data is -1.63B
  • forecast data is -5.94B
  • actual data is -6.15B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - Current Account] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods, services, income flows, and unilateral transfers during the previous quarter.

==========

From official report :

  • "New Zealand’s seasonally adjusted current account deficit narrowed to $2.6 billion, $102 million smaller than the June 2018 quarter deficit ($2.7 billion)."
  • "The annual current account deficit widened to $10.5 billion for the year ended September 2018 (3.6 percent of GDP) from the $7.4 billion deficit for the September 2017 year (2.7 percent of GDP)."

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NZD/USD M1: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Current Account news event 

NZD/USD M1: range price movement by New Zealand Overseas Current Account news event

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Balance of payments | Stats NZ
  • www.stats.govt.nz
Find statistics on the balance of payments (BoP) – a comprehensive record of NZ's economic relationship with the rest of the world.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

GBP/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsU.K. Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2018-12-19 09:30 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "UK consumer price inflation slowed in November to its lowest level in twenty months, in line with economists' expectations, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday."
  • "The consumer price index rose 2.3 percent year-on-year following a 2.4 percent increase in October. The latest inflation rate was the lowest since March 2017, when inflation was at the same level."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event 

GBP/USD: range price movement by U.K. Consumer Price Index news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

UK CPI Inflation At 20-Month Low
UK CPI Inflation At 20-Month Low
  • 2018.12.19
  • www.rttnews.com
UK consumer price inflation slowed in November to its lowest level in twenty months, in line with economists' expectations, data from the Office for National Statistics showed on Wednesday.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsNew Zealand Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-12-19 21:45 GMT | [NZD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for NZD in our case)

[NZD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Economic activity, as measured by gross domestic product (GDP), was up 0.3 percent in the September 2018 quarter. Growth eased after a 1.0 percent increase in the June 2018 quarter.."
  • "GDP grew 3.0 percent over the year ended September 2018."
  • "Primary industries had the largest growth this quarter, up 2.2 percent. Growth in the service industries eased to 0.5 percent, following broad-based 1.0 percent growth in the June 2018 quarter. Goods-producing industries dropped 1.0 percent."

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event 

NZD/USD: range price movement by New Zealand Gross Domestic Product news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After 

Business Outlook Survey | ANZ
  • www.anz.co.nz
ANZ surveys 1,500 NZ businesses and analyses where the economy will be going over the next year. Business confidence, exports, labour market and more.
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USDDollar Index and Crude OilFederal Funds Rate

2018-12-19 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

  • past data is 2.25%
  • forecast data is 2.50%
  • actual data is 2.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

  • "Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance."
  • "Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. The Committee judges that risks to the economic outlook are roughly balanced, but will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook."
  • "In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2‑1/2 percent."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Crude Oil: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

Crude Oil: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
The Fed - Meeting calendars and information
  • www.federalreserve.gov
The FOMC holds eight regularly scheduled meetings during the year and other meetings as needed. Links to policy statements and minutes are in the calendars below. The minutes of regularly scheduled meetings are released three weeks after the date of the policy decision. Committee membership changes at the first regularly scheduled meeting of...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD)United States Gross Domestic Product

2018-12-21 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product (GDP) increased 3.4 percent in the third quarter of 2018, according to the “third” estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The growth rate was revised down 0.1 percentage point from the “second” estimate released in November. In the second quarter, real GDP increased 4.2 percent."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

GBP/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Gross Domestic Product news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

News Release Schedule | U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA)
  • www.bea.gov
2019 Release Title Date Time
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  
Market Trends To Watch In 2019 - Relatively High Valuation Of The U.S. Market (based on the article)


S&P 500

  • "This trend has persisted for longer than many expected, but remains notable in a historical context. At the time of writing, the S&P 500 trades at a PE of 18x, with other metrics telling a similar story. That's high by historical standards. On the other hand, developed markets outside of the U.S. trade at around 12x earnings, closer to average. That means that the U.S. market is trading at a 50% premium to other developed markets. Historically, that premium hasn't persisted. In fact we've seen times when foreign markets traded at level above the U.S. It's hard to call when this trend may turn, but history seems to be on the side of overseas markets and American investors may be underexposed to this potential move."

============

The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  
Market Trends To Watch In 2019 - Low European Bond Yields (based on the article)


European Bond

  • "Even though bond yields have risen at least in the U.S. in recent years, it remains true that yields on government debt are low by historical standards. The yield on 10-year Swiss government debt is negative, and many European countries have very low yields. Again, we're a decade into this trend, a have seen four decades of generally declining yields globally as inflation has been tamed. Nonetheless, broader history, and the fact that U.S. inflation is around 2%, suggests this may not last."

============

The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

Crypto News - Bitcoin: Stronger Bitcoin-Bearish; 3,122 is the key (based on the article)

Bitcoin/USD weekly chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Retail trader data shows 77.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.44 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.4% lower than yesterday and 6.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.7% lower than yesterday and 6.4% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests Bitcoin prices may continue to fall. Traders are further net-long than yesterday and last week, and the combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a stronger Bitcoin-bearish contrarian trading bias."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

Stronger Bitcoin-Bearish: Most Traders Stay Net-Long
Stronger Bitcoin-Bearish: Most Traders Stay Net-Long
  • Fan Xu
  • www.dailyfx.com
Bitcoin: Retail trader data shows 77.5% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 3.44 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.4% lower than yesterday and 6.2% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 2.7% lower than yesterday and 6.4% lower from last week. Bitcoin Sentiment Suggests a Stronger...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

NZD/USD - bearish ranging (based on the article)

NZD/USD daily chart by Metatrader 5

  • "NZDUSD has consistently traded lower in recent weeks and now trades below resistance from the trendline originating on December 4th. The head and shoulders pattern sent the pair lower and after a strong Friday performance, the Kiwi looks poised to test the trendline next week. A failed test would serve as strong confirmation for a sustained move lower and continuation of the recent trend."
  • "Another price point to watch in the week ahead includes 0.6700, a round number that has provided moderate support and resistance in the past six months. Coupled with nearby resistance from the December 4th trendline, a break below 0.6700 could serve to drive the pair lower in earnest."

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread
New Zealand Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast: NZDUSD to Continue Slide, NZDCAD Faces 2016 Resistance
New Zealand Dollar Weekly Technical Forecast: NZDUSD to Continue Slide, NZDCAD Faces 2016 Resistance
  • Peter Hanks
  • www.dailyfx.com
sent the pair lower and after a strong Friday performance, the Kiwi looks poised to test the trendline next week. A failed test would serve as strong confirmation for a sustained move lower and continuation of the recent trend. NZD/USD Price Chart 4-Hour, June 2018 to January 2019 (Chart 1) A failed test would also serve to strengthen the...
Sergey Golubev
Moderator
113479
Sergey Golubev  

AUD/USD Intra-Day FundamentalsAustralia Trade Balance and range price movement 

2019-01-08 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 2.01B
  • forecast data is 2.18B
  • actual data is 1.93B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

==========

From official report :

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,259m in November 2018, a decrease of $7m on the surplus in October 2018."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,925m in November 2018, a decrease of $88m on the surplus in October 2018."

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AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

5368.0 - International Trade in Goods and Services, Australia, Nov 2018
  • www.abs.gov.au
NOVEMBER KEY FIGURES NOVEMBER KEY POINTS BALANCE ON GOODS AND SERVICES In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,259m in November 2018, a decrease of $7m on the surplus in October 2018. In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,925m in November 2018, a decrease of...