Forecast and levels for Dollar Index - page 6

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.16 14:51

Weekly Outlook: 2017, September 17 - September 24 (based on the article)

The US dollar staged an impressive recovery, based on better data, political calm and more. Is this a correction or a total change of trend? The highly anticipated Fed decision is easily the most important event.


  1. US housing data: Tuesday, 12:30. Housing starts were somewhat lower, at 1.16 million and are now projected to rise to 1.18 million.
  2. US Existing Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00. They are expected to increase to 5.46 million now.
  3. Fed decision: Wednesday, 18:00, press conference at 18:30. The Fed is expected to announce the beginning of Quantitative Tightening or the beginning of reducing its 4.5 trillion dollar balance sheet. Fed Chair Janet Yellen said it will be akin to “watching paint dry” and in any case, that will not be a surprise after the Fed talked about it for long months. The focus will be on the timing of the next interest rate hike. Will it happen in December, completing three hikes in 2017? Or has recently weak inflation undermined the chances? This is the big question for skeptical markets and the US dollar. The Fed will also release updated forecasts for growth, employment, and inflation. The biggest focus will be on the interest rate forecast, which will contain hints about future moves. Yellen will begin speaking at 18:30. Reporters will likely press her on the next rate hikes. The usual phrase about the Fed being “data dependent” will probably be heard more than once, but the general stance about the economy will set the tone. Other topics of interest will be comments about the stock market, the global economy, and oil prices. Markets could freeze just before the publication and go wild afterward.
  4. New Zealand GDP: Wednesday, 22:45.
  5. Japanese rate decision: Thursday, early morning, the exact time is unavailable. 
  6. US jobless claims: Thursday, 12:30. At 284K last week, it is now expected to rise to 300K.
  7. Canadian inflation data: Friday, 12:30.

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.16 10:39

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


Dollar Index - "The big U.S. data point for this week was Thursday’s release of inflation for the month of August. And while this came-out in a rather encouraging format, with headline printing at 1.9% versus an expectation of 1.8% while core came-in at 1.7% versus the 1.5% estimate, bulls were unable to hold on to the previous week’s gains as sellers took over ahead of a pivotal Federal Reserve meeting next week. This better-than-expected inflation print is the second consecutive month of higher prices for the U.S. economy; and this comes after a troubling turn in the beginning of the year that saw inflation swan-dive from a 2.7% high in February down to a low of 1.6% in June. Normally – a print such as we saw yesterday would bring at least a day’s worth of strength into the Dollar; but the context with which we are currently operating can’t quite be considered normal as a huge FOMC meeting looms on the docket for next week, when the bank may announce the start of Quantitative Tightening."


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.19 18:41

Dollar Index Intra-Day Fundamentals: U.S. Residential Building Permits and range price movement 

2017-09-19 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

  • past data is 1.23M
  • forecast data is 1.22M
  • actual data is 1.30M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month. 

==========

From Forbes article :

  • "Housing starts in August came in at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.18 million. Starts slid 0.8% from a revised July estimate of 1.19 million. Nevertheless, August starts were 1.4% higher than the August 2016 rate 0f 1.164 million and starts on single-family homes was even strong, increasing 17.1% from a year ago. Meanwhile, 5.7% more building permits were issued in August than in July, with 1.3 million authorizations. Last month was also 8.3% above the August 2016 rate of 1.2 million."
  • "Nevertheless, economists expect housing overall to continue its long-term positive march. "The trend in housing starts should continue to be upward over the remainder of this year and in 2018, as housing demand rises -- boosted by the solid job market, wage gains that are edging higher, low mortgage rates, and accelerating household formations," says David Berson, chief economist at insurer Nationwide."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Residential Building Permits news event 


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 08:15

Weekly Outlook: 2017, September 24 - October 01 (based on the article)

The US dollar rallied on the Fed decision but its strength faded away. What’s next? The German elections, durable goods orders, and several GDP publications stand out as Q3 draws to a close. Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


    1. New Zealand elections: Saturday. The polls indicate that everything is possible.
    2. German elections: Sunday, results are due before markets open in Asia. All in all, a victory for Merkel would be positive for the euro, but this is mostly priced in.
    3. US CB Consumer Confidence: Tuesday, 14:00. A score of 119.6 is projected.
    4. US New Home Sales: Tuesday, 14:00. An increase to 591K is on the cards.
    5. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. A more modest rise of 0.2% is forecast.
    6. New Zealand rate decision: Wednesday, 20:00. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to leave the interest rate at 1.75% once again. The RBNZ likes to complain about the strength of the currency, and this time, the elections will have a material effect on the exchange rate, thus determining the reaction from Graeme Wheeler and his colleagues. They usually “make the trend their friend”. So, a drop in the NZD could provide an opportunity to push it even lower, while a rise in the currency would be hard to mitigate.
    7. US GDP (final): Thursday, 12:30. A small upgrade to 3.1% is on the cards.
    8. UK GDP (final): Friday, 8:30. This will likely be confirmed in the final read.
    9. Euro-zone inflation (flash): Friday, 9:00. Higher levels of inflation can shorten the process, while protracted low inflation can slow it down.
    10. US Core PCE Price Index: Friday, 12:30. A monthly rise of 0.2% is expected.
    11. Canadian GDP: Friday, 12:30.

     

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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2017.09.23 19:08

    Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


    Dollar Index - "The US Dollar was spared a fifth consecutive week of losses, with the Fed monetary policy announcement helping prices to rebound from a 15-month low. Chair Janet Yellen and company stood by near- to medium-term rate hike projections despite disinflation in the first half of the year, which markets saw as comparatively hawkish (as expected). They also announced the start of “quantitative tightening” (QT). The Eurozone’s monetary authority will decide on the fate of its QE asset purchases next month, with many market participants seemingly primed for a cutback. Meanwhile, the BOC has launched its own rate hike cycle recently and the BOE has signaled it is preparing to follow suit in the near term. Bargain-hunting in the early stages of tightening outside the US may prove too compelling to pass up for investors."

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    Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


     

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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.01 08:06

    Dollar Index - ranging bearish; 90.98/94.05 are the keys (based on the article)


    Weekly price is located very far below from Ichimoku cloud in the primary bearish area of the chart: the price is on ranging within 90.98 bearish continuation support level and 94.05 resistance level for the secondary rally to be started.

    • "For much of 2015 and 2016, the U.S. Dollar Index traded in a range between the 93 support and 100 resistance. The post-U.S. presidential election breakout proved to be short-lived, and the Dollar Index has fallen back to its old support level at 93 (and even broke below it recently). The index is now at a critical juncture because how it acts at this level will determine its next major move. If the index is able to break back above 93 in a convincing manner, then it has a fighting chance of staging a bounce off of this level. If the index is not able to stage a successful breakout, however, then further weakness becomes more likely."
    • "The U.S. dollar's weakness since the start of the year has corresponded with strength in the euro, which recently broke out of its two-and-a-half-year-old trading range. This breakout creates a bullish bias in the euro and a bearish bias in the dollar as long as it remains intact. If the euro manages to correct back to the 1.1500 support level and break below, that would be a bearish signal for the euro and a bullish signal for the dollar."

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    Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

    Same system for MT4:

    1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
    2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
    3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
    4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

     

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    Press review

    Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.07 08:17

    Weekly Outlook: 2017, October 08 - October 15 (based on the article)

    The US dollar remained strong and enjoyed mostly upbeat data. Can we expect further gains? The focus remains on the greenback with the FOMC minutes, US retail sales and the all-important inflation figures Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


      1. JOLTS Job Openings: Wednesday, 14:00. A level of 6.06 is on the cards now.
      2. FOMC Meeting Minutes: Wednesday, 18:00. In the September, meeting, the announced the beginning of reducing its balance sheet, as widely expected. They also left their rate hike projections unchanged for 2017 (one more hike) and 2018 (3 hikes). The eagerness to continue raising rates comes despite slower inflation, something that Fed Chair Yellen described as a “mystery”. The minutes from that meeting are released now. It is important to note that the text is edited until the very last minute, leaving room for sending the desired message to markets. The focus will be on how worried they are of low inflation.
      3. US PPI: Thursday, 12:30. Headline PPI is expected to rise by 0.4% while the core number is predicted to advance by 0.2%.
      4. Mario Draghi talks: Thursday, 14:15. The President of the ECB will talk in a panel in Washington and may shed some more light on the upcoming decision to reduce its bond-buying scheme. Will he still express concern about the exchange rate? EUR/USD is lower since he voiced his complaints.
      5. Lael Brainard talks: Thursday, 14:15. Brainard is a permanent voter in the FOMC and her opinions are in line with the majority. She could provide a valuable to the latest jobs report and more importantly, about the potential rate hike in December.
      6. Jerome Powell talks: Thursday, 14:30 and also Friday at 17:00. Powell is also a Fed Governor who rarely discusses monetary policy. Nevertheless, his words are of higher importance now as he is one of the candidates to head the Fed. In his previous appearance, Powell did not offer insights about interest rates.
      7. US CPI: Friday, 12:30. Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.6% this time, while core CPI by only 0.2%.
      8. US retail sales: Friday, 12:30.Overall sales volume is predicted to bounce back by 1.5% and core sales by 0.9%.
      9. US consumer sentiment: Friday, 14:00. We now get the preliminary release for October which is forecast to be very similar: 95.4 points.

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      The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


       

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      Press review

      Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.07 16:50

      Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)


      Dollar Index - "The week ahead offers plenty of fodder for continued speculation. Minutes from September’s FOMC meeting will help clarify policymakers’ thinking but a wealth of commentary since the sit-down has already established a clearly hawkish bias. That stance is by no means unanimous, but the driving core of the rate-setting committee seems to buy the case for on-coming reflation and the resulting need to tighten."

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      Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


       

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      Press review

      Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.15 18:02

      Weekly Outlook: 2017, October 15 - October 22 (based on the article)

      The greenback was unable to hold onto its rally as weak inflation continues weighing. What’s next? We will hear some Fed reactions and also a wide variety of figures from all over the world Here are the highlights for the upcoming week.


        1. Janet Yellen talks: Sunday, 13:00, before markets open. The Chair of the Fed will address a forum of the G-30 and may provide some hints about the next moves coming from the central bank. She will have an opportunity to respond to the inflation figures.
        2. UK inflation data: Tuesday, 8:30. The data for August showed an annual rise of 2.9%, which is quite rapid. A rise to 3% is expected.
        3. Bill Dudley talks: Wednesday, 12:00. Dudley is, in effect, No. 2 in the Fed, as Vice Chair Stanley Fischer is stepping down. He has been quite upbeat about the economy, contrary to his previous dovish stance. Like Yellen, he will have an opportunity to comment on the inflation data.
        4. US housing data: Wednesday, 12:30. Building permits are projected to tick down to 1.25 million while housing starts are forecast to remain unchanged.
        5. Australian jobs report: Thursday, 00:30. The unemployment rate stood at 5.6% and no change is on the cards now.
        6. Chinese GDP: Thursday, 2:00. The publication comes as the Chinese Communist Party convenes for its twice a decade Congress. In addition, the country will publish industrial output, retail sales, and other figures.
        7. US Existing Home Sales: Friday, 14:00. A level of 5.32 million is expected now.

        ==========

        The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


         

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        Press review

        Sergey Golubev, 2017.10.22 08:46

        Weekly Outlook: 2017, October 22 - October 29 (based on the article)

        The US dollar advanced against most currencies, but the moves were limited.The upcoming week is quite busy, featuring initial GDP reads from the US and the UK, rate decisions from the BOC and the ECB, and more. 


          1. Japanese elections: Sunday, results expected before markets open.
          2. Australian CPI: Wednesday, 00:30. Headline CPI is expected to rise by 0.8% and core CPI by 0.5%.
          3. UK GDP (first release): Wednesday, 8:30. Has the economy picked up in Q3? Expectations are for 0.3% q/q once again.
          4. US Durable Goods Orders: Wednesday, 12:30. Headline orders are predicted to advance by 1.1% while core orders carry expectations for 0.5%.
          5. Canadian rate decision: Wednesday, 14:00, press conference at 15:15. 
          6. US New Home Sales: Wednesday, 14:00.
          7. ECB Rate decision: Thursday, the decision is at 11:45, press conference at 12:30. This time, no new forecasts are planned, so Draghi’s words carry more weight.
          8. US GDP (first release): Friday, 12:30. An annualized growth rate of 2.7%is on the cards. 

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