Weekly Fundamental Forecast for Dollar Index (based on the article)
Dollar Index - "The best-case scenario for the greenback would see Yellen setting the stage to begin so-called “quantitative tightening” (QT) next month. That would leave room for another rate hike just before year-end if all goes well and the “idiosyncratic” forces holding down inflation evaporate, as the Fed seems to believe they will. Vague rhetoric on QT prospects and ebbing confidence in reflation are likely to hurt the US currency."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for GBP/USD (based on the article)
GBP/USD - "In the coming week, the key statistic will be the second reading of second-quarter GDP, which analysts will be watching for any deviation from the first estimates of 0.3% growth quarter/quarter and 1.7% year/year. Also on the calendar are the public finances on Monday and the Confederation of British Industry’s industrial and retail surveys on Tuesday and Thursday respectively."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)
USD/JPY - "The Yen weakened in the early portion of this week after this robust GDP print, and this was likely more-related to the easing of risk aversion after last week’s heightened worries around North Korea. U.S. stocks popped-higher on Monday, and held gains on Tuesday and going into Wednesday; mirroring the move of weakness in the Japanese Yen, even despite this stronger-than expected GDP report that opened the week. But after those FOMC meeting minutes were released on Wednesday, the tone changed: Yen strength showed-up again, stocks sold off, and we rallied off the lows as we move towards week-end."
Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/CNH (based on the article)
USD/CNH - "The Chinese Yuan lost against the U.S. Dollar this week, following five consecutive gains. The USD/CNH remained the bearish trend (bullish for the Yuan) amid the Dollar weakness and was testing the top 50% line of a parallel. Next week, China’s economic calendar is light; the primary external risk will come from the Jackson Hole Economic Symposium. In terms of risks from home, policies from China’s central bank as well as the development of China’s relationship with its counterparts will be top drivers for Yuan pairs."
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Wholesale Sales and range price movement
2017-08-21 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Wholesale Sales]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for CAD in our case)
[CAD - Wholesale Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the wholesale level.
From official report :
USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Wholesale Sales news event
EUR/USD - 'We Prefer to Buy' or stronger EURUSD-bullish story (based on the article)
Daily price is on bullish trend located above Ichimoku cloud: price is on ranging within narrow support/resistance levels waiting for the direction of the stronger trend to be started.
Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies
Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.12 08:59
What Does a Spread Tell Traders?
Spreads and Forex
has a spread and so does Forex. A spread is simply defined as the price
difference between where a trader may purchase or sell an underlying
asset. Traders that are familiar with equities will synonymously call
this the Bid: Ask spread.
Below we can see an example of the spread being calculated for the EURUSD.
First we will find the buy price at 1.35640 and then subtract the sell
price of 1.32626. What we are left with after this process is a reading
of .00014. Traders should remember that the pip value is then identified on the EURUSD as the 4th digit after the decimal, making the final spread calculated as 1.4 pips.
Now we know how to calculate the spread in pips, let’s look at the actual cost incurred by traders.
Spreads Costs and Calculations
Since the spread is just a
number, we now need to know how to relate the spread into Dollars and
Cents. The good news is if you can find the spread, finding this figure
is very mathematically straight forward once you have identified pip
cost and the number of lots you are trading.
Using the quotes above, we
know we can currently buy the EURUSD at 1.3564 and close the transaction
at a sell price of 1.35474.That means as soon as our trade is open, a
trader would incur 1.4 pips of spread. To find the total cost, we will
now need to multiply this value by pip cost while considering the total
amount of lots traded. When trading a 10k EURUSD lot with a $1 pip cost,
you would incur a total cost of $1.40 on this transaction.
Remember, pip cost is
exponential. This means you will need to multiply this value based off
of the number of lots you are trading. As the size of your positions
increase, so will the cost incurred from the spread.
Changes in the Spread
Scripts: News VLine
Sergey Golubev, 2014.01.30 09:25
Forex Spreads and the News (based on dailyfx article)
Financial markets have the ability to be drastically effected by
economic news releases. News events occur throughout the trading week,
as denoted by the economic calendar, and may increase market volatility
as well as increase the spreads you see on your favorite currency pairs.
It is imperative that new traders become familiar with what can happen
during these events. So to better prepare you for upcoming news, we are
going to review what happens to Forex spreads during volatile markets.
Spreads and the News
News is a notorious time of market uncertainty. These releases on the
economic calendar happen sporadically and depending if expectations are
met or not, can cause prices to fluctuate rapidly. Just like retail
traders, large liquidity providers do not know the outcome of news
events prior to their release! Because of this, they look to offset some
of their risk by widening spreads.
Above is an example of spreads during the January NFP employment number
release. Notice how spreads on the Major Forex pairs widened. Even
though this was a temporary event, until the market normalizes traders
will have to endure wider costs of trading.
Dealing with the Spread
It is important to remember that spreads are variable, meaning they will
not always remain the same and will change as liquidity providers
change their pricing. Above we can see how quickly spreads normalize
after the news. In 5 minutes, the spreads on the EURUSD moved from 6.4
pips back to 1.4 pips. So where does that leave traders wanting to
execute orders around the news?
Traders should always consider the risk of trading volatile markets. One
of the options for trading news events is to immediately execute orders
at market in hopes that the market volatility covers the increased
spread cost. Or, traders can wait for markets to normalize and then take
advantage of added liquidity once market activity subsides.
USD/CAD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Retail Sales and range price movement
2017-08-22 13:30 GMT | [CAD - Core Retail Sales]
[CAD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.
USD/CAD M5: range price movement by Canada's Retail Sales news event
AUD/USD - ranging for direction (based on the article)
Intra-day price on H4 chart is located within 100-SMA/200-SMA levels waiting for the direction of the trend to be started.
EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Canada's Retail Sales and range price movement
2017-08-23 08:30 GMT | [EUR - German Manufacturing PMI]
if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)
[EUR - German Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.
EUR/USD M5: range price movement by German Manufacturing PMI news event