Press review - page 666

[Sergey Golubev]

Crypto News - Bitcoin: intra-day ranging within reversal area; weekly possible breakout to the bullish reversal; 11,000 is the next target (based on the article)

• "Bitcoin markets have been relatively calm since yesterday afternoon, when the digital currency fell more than 8% in a matter of hours."
• "The cryptocurrency declined to as little as $9,410.92 yesterday, down from an intra-day high of nearly $10,300, and has since been trading between $9,400 and $9,800, CoinDesk price data shows."
• "Going forward, bitcoin may benefit from strong support in the short-term and a bullish trend in the long-term, said analysts."
• "Kiana Danial, CEO of Invest Diva, also weighed in, noting that yesterday’s pullback certainly did not come as a surprise to her, as she was expecting such retracements. In spite of this recent decline, she believes that bitcoin is experiencing “a longer-term uptrend.” When asked what, in particular, made her think the digital currency was following this positive, upward movement, she pointed to the Ichimoku Cloud, a group of technical indicators that analysts use to get a better sense of what an asset will do in the future."
  

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Markit Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and range price movement

2020-02-21 08:30 GMT | [EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 45.3
• forecast data is 44.8
• actual data is 47.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

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From official report :

• "Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index (1) at 51.1 (Jan: 51.2). 2-month low."
• "Flash Germany Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 53.3 (Jan: 54.2). 2-month low."
• "Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 47.8 (Jan: 45.3). 13-month high."
• "Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 47.0 (Jan: 45.6). 9-month high."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Markit German PMI news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2020-02-24 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

• past data is 95.9
• forecast data is 95.0
• actual data is 96.1 according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers.

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From marketscreener article :

• "Eurozone: German IFO business climate better than estimates at 96.1. The consensus counted on 95.0. The previous publication was 95.9. This monthly indicator published by the IFO economic institute based in Frankfurt defines - via a survey of 7,000 entrepreneurs - the level of confidence in the German economy."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  German Ifo Business Climate news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Dow Jones Industrial Average - daily bearish breakdown; 27,906 is the key (based on the article)

• "This Daily Dow Jones Industrial chart highlights the huge Gap lower that took place early on Monday, February 24, 2020. This huge move resulted from an extended fear of a growing potential for a global pandemic event and a renewed fear that global economic activity may be greatly reduced over the next 12+ months."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket- indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): CB Consumer Confidence

2020-02-25 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 130.4
• forecast data is 132.6
• actual data is 130.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

• "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved slightly in February, following an increase in January. The Index now stands at 130.7 (1985=100), up from 130.4 in January. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 173.9 to 165.1. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 101.4 last month to 107.8 this month." 
• "Consumer confidence improved slightly in February, following an increase in January," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators. "Despite the decline in the Present Situation Index, consumers continue to view current conditions quite favorably. Consumers’ short-term expectations improved, and when coupled with solid employment growth, should be enough to continue to support spending and economic growth in the near term."
  

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AUD/USD: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - NZD/USD and Dollar Index (DXY): United States New Residential Sales

2020-02-26 15:00 GMT | [USD - New Home Sales]

• past data is 708K
• forecast data is 711K
• actual data is 764K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - New Home Sales] = Annualized number of new single-family homes that were sold during the previous month.

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From forbes article :

• "The number of new home sales hit an almost 13-year high last month, according to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau this morning. In total, new home sales were up 7.9% from December to January. There were 764,000 new, single-family units sold in the month—an 18.6% uptick over the year and a marked improvement over the Bureau’s predicted numbers of 711,000."

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NZD/USD: range price movement by United States New Home Sales news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States New Home Sales news events

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily/weekly bearish to be resumed with 53.09 target

2020-02-26 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 0.4M
• forecast data is 2.3M
• actual data is 0.5M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 500 thousand barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Facebook Stock (NASDAQ: FB): long-term bullish ascending triagle pattern with 224.20 resistance; 173.09 support for ranging bearish to be started (based on the article)

• "Facebook has seen significant growth of $43 billion in revenues over the last three years, with net revenue jumping from $27.6 billion in 2016 to $70.7 billion in 2019. The growth primarily came from the advertising segment, which makes up more than 98% of Facebook’s total revenue. Notably, the United States and Europe contribute almost 70% of the company’s top line." 

============

The chart was made on monthly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Sell Bonds Now (based on the article)

• "Let us look at the performance of the former month. If the month of February has been up in the past, March has been down in 17 of 20 years. (If the month had been up, then March has been down in in 10 of 17 cases). Note that the tendency for March to be down rises to 85% if the prior month has closed on the upside."
  
• "Notes had a strong day on Friday, hitting the objective set by the breakout from the 5-month range that had been confining price. The first half of March is likely to be very weak due to the seasonality and the falling cycles. Notes are likely to fall back to 132.0-132.5."
• "The period from the 18th through the 23rd has been one of the most bearish weeks in any year."
• "The monthly cycle already is in a falling phase."
  

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2020-03-03 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

• past data is 0.75%
• forecast data is 0.50%
• actual data is 0.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

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From official report :

• "At its meeting today, the Board decided to lower the cash rate by 25 basis points to 0.50 per cent. The Board took this decision to support the economy as it responds to the global coronavirus outbreak. The unemployment rate increased in January to 5.3 per cent and has been around 5¼ per cent since April last year. Wages growth remains subdued and is not expected to pick up for some time. A gradual lift in wages growth would be a welcome development and is needed for inflation to be sustainably within the 2–3 per cent target range. The global outbreak of the coronavirus is expected to delay progress in Australia towards full employment and the inflation target. The Board therefore judged that it was appropriate to ease monetary policy further to provide additional support to employment and economic activity. It will continue to monitor developments closely and to assess the implications of the coronavirus for the economy. The Board is prepared to ease monetary policy further to support the Australian economy."
  

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AUD/USD: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event 

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series