Analysis of Federal Funds Rate changes and their effect on currency markets and trading strategies.

Sergey Golubev 2018.12.20 08:56 #131

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.20 08:39

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and Crude Oil: Federal Funds Rate

2018-12-19 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 2.25%
forecast data is 2.50%
actual data is 2.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"Information received since the Federal Open Market Committee met in November indicates that the labor market has continued to strengthen and that economic activity has been rising at a strong rate. Job gains have been strong, on average, in recent months, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Household spending has continued to grow strongly, while growth of business fixed investment has moderated from its rapid pace earlier in the year. On a 12-month basis, both overall inflation and inflation for items other than food and energy remain near 2 percent. Indicators of longer-term inflation expectations are little changed, on balance."
"Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. The Committee judges that some further gradual increases in the target range for the federal funds rate will be consistent with sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective over the medium term. The Committee judges that risks to the economic outlook are roughly balanced, but will continue to monitor global economic and financial developments and assess their implications for the economic outlook."
"In view of realized and expected labor market conditions and inflation, the Committee decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate to 2-1/4 to 2‑1/2 percent."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Crude Oil: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2018.12.24 13:48 #132

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

USD

Saheb Hemati, 2018.12.24 13:22

In the new year, I expect the dollar to fall, what's your opinion about the dollar?

Sergey Golubev 2019.01.10 10:57 #133

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.10 10:14

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and S&P 500: Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) Minutes

2019-01-09 19:00 GMT | [USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes]

past data is n/a
forecast data is n/a
actual data is n/a according to the latest press release

[USD - FOMC Meeting Minutes] = It's a detailed record of the FOMC's most recent meeting, providing in-depth insights into the economic and financial conditions that influenced their vote on where to set interest rates.

==========

From rttnews article :

"Minutes from the Federal Open Market Committee's latest meeting confirmed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's recent remarks suggesting the central bank will take a patient approach to further interest rate increases. The minutes of the FOMC's December meeting showed participants saw the appropriate extent and timing of future rate hikes as less clear than earlier."
"The Fed decided to raise rates by a quarter point at the meeting, but the minutes suggest volatility in financial markets and increased concerns about global economic growth have clouded the outlook for rates. "Against this backdrop, many participants expressed the view that, especially in an environment of muted inflation pressures, the Committee could afford to be patient about further policy firming," the minutes said."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

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S&P 500: range price movement by FOMC Meeting Minutes news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2019.01.31 07:36 #134

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.31 07:15

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, Dollar Index and S&P 500: Federal Funds Rate

2019-01-30 19:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 2.50%
forecast data is 2.50%
actual data is 2.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

S&P 500: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2019.02.21 11:23 #135

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.02.21 11:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD and Dollar Index: Markit Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI)

2019-02-21 08:30 GMT | [EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI]

past data is 49.7
forecast data is 49.7
actual data is 47.6 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

"The IHS Markit Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI dropped to a 74-month low of 47.6 in February."
"The IHS Markit Flash Germany Composite Output Index registered a reading of 52.7 in February, up from 52.1 in January and its highest since last October."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Markit German PMI news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Markit German PMI news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Press review Forecast and levels for

Sergey Golubev 2019.03.09 14:10 #136

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.09 13:24

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and USD/JPY: Non-Farm Payrolls

2019-03-08 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 311K
forecast data is 180K
actual data is 20K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment changed little in February (+20,000), and the unemployment rate declined to 3.8 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment in professional and business services, health care, and wholesale trade continued to trend up, while construction employment decreased."

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Dollar Index H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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EUR/USD H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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USD/JPY H1: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2019.03.17 06:39 #137

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.17 06:36

Dollar Index - bullish ranging for direction; 97.66 is the key (based on the article)

"On a strictly statistical basis, the Dollar closed out a particularly painful week. Yet, the context of its broader technical patterns and environment suggests we are not yet in a position to expect the revival of a genuine trend. Extending its impressively precise range reversal from 97.75, the DXY dove back into the middle of its congestion pattern stretching all the way down to support defined by the confluence of the trendline reaching back to May and the 200-day simple moving average now at 95.80. From Friday close to Friday close, the index dropped approximately 0.8 percent for the worst slide since the week of August the 20th. Before that, we don’t have a comparable performance until February of last year – when the currency was searching out the bottom of its 14-month bear trend. This move promises little for the development of a new phase beyond the established range. On the other hand, volatility applied to tightly bound spaces runs a greater and greater risk of prompting a breakout – especially as key events like this coming week’s FOMC rate decision pop up."

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4
Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

The main AscTrend thread is this one.
Asctrend indicator in depth
ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

Press review Forecast and levels for Brainwashing System / Asctrend

Sergey Golubev 2019.03.21 09:46 #138

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.03.21 09:29

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, Dax Index and Hang Seng Index: Federal Funds Rate and FOMC Statement

2019-03-20 18:00 GMT | [USD - Federal Funds Rate]

past data is 2.50%
forecast data is 2.50%
actual data is 2.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Federal Funds Rate] = Interest rate at which depository institutions lend balances held at the Federal Reserve to other depository institutions overnight.

==========

From official report :

"Consistent with its statutory mandate, the Committee seeks to foster maximum employment and price stability. In support of these goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 2-1/4 to 2-1/2 percent. The Committee continues to view sustained expansion of economic activity, strong labor market conditions, and inflation near the Committee's symmetric 2 percent objective as the most likely outcomes. In light of global economic and financial developments and muted inflation pressures, the Committee will be patient as it determines what future adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate may be appropriate to support these outcomes."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Dax Index: range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Hang Seng Index (HK50): range price movement by Federal Funds Rate news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4
Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

The main AscTrend thread is this one.
Asctrend indicator in depth
ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2019.05.04 09:17 #139

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.04 08:32

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, EUR/USD and USD/CNH: Non-Farm Payrolls

2019-05-03 12:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

past data is 189K
forecast data is 181K
actual data is 263K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

"Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 263,000 in April, and the unemployment rate declined to 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in professional and business services, construction, health care, and social assistance."

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Dollar Index M30: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

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EUR/USD M30: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

============

USD/CNH M30: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Forecast and levels for Forecast and levels for Press review

Sergey Golubev 2019.05.28 17:09 #140

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.05.28 17:02

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/CAD and GOLD: CB Consumer Confidence

2019-05-28 14:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

past data is 129.2
forecast data is 130.1
actual data is 134.1 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

"The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved in May, following an increase in April. The Index now stands at 134.1 (1985=100), up from 129.2 in April. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – increased from 169.0 to 175.2. The Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 102.7 last month to 106.6 this month."
"Consumer Confidence posted another gain in May and is now back to levels seen last Fall when the Index was hovering near 18-year highs,” said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators at The Conference Board. “The increase in the Present Situation Index was driven primarily by employment gains. Expectations regarding the short-term outlook for business conditions and employment improved, but consumers’ sentiment regarding their income prospects was mixed. Consumers expect the economy to continue growing at a solid pace in the short-term, and despite weak retail sales in April, these high levels of confidence suggest no significant pullback in consumer spending in the months ahead."

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Dollar Index H1: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events