Forecast and levels for Oil - page 15

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.07 08:06

Crude Oil - bullish trend to be started; 69.44 is the bullish target for Brent Crude Oil; 66.56 is the bullish target for West Texas Intermediate (based on the article)

• "Succumbing to market pressure, crude producers' group OPEC and its 10 non-OPEC allies intervened to deepen their ongoing output cuts of 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) by another 500,000 bpd on Friday (December 6) following the conclusion of their meeting of ministers in Vienna, Austria. In a surprise for the market, OPEC revealed that bulk of the burden will largely fall on Saudi Arabia's shoulders, with the kingdom announcing it would cut "voluntarily" by 400,000 bpd. That marks an increase of 167,000 bpd and would keep Riyadh's headline production at 9.744 million bpd. Many OPEC members, often accused of non-compliance with the promised cuts, came out to say they would be pitching in."
• "For now though, oil benchmarks have responded positively. At 17:37 GMT on Friday, the Brent front-month contract was up +1.20% or 76 cents to $64.15 per barrel, while the West Texas Intermediate was trading 1.01% or 59 cents higher at $59.02 per barrel."

• "Short-term gains are there for the taking with this surprise to the upside, but the real test would come early in the New Year. For now, OPEC and its allies have given up yet more ground and risked market share for the sake of gains that remain uncertain."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.09 08:07

Crude Oil - the price is moving higher; 64.84 is the key resistance with 69.64 as a bullish target (based on the article)

• "Oil rose in November, normally a weak month. When oil has risen in the month of November in the past, it has increased in 10 of 13 cases in the month of December. (When oil has fallen in past Novembers, oil has risen in only 9 of 23 cases in December.)."
• "In the average month, December has been up in 53% of all cases. The monthly cycle is in an ascending mode and rises into February."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.18 17:09

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish breakout with 66.39 resistance as a next target; daily bullish reversal

2019-12-18 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 0.8M
• forecast data is -3.7M
• actual data is -1.1M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

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"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 1.1 million barrels from the previous week."

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Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

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Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.16 15:38

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CAD and Brent Crude Oil: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-01-16 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

• past data is 0.0%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From reuters article :

• "U.S. retail sales rose for a third straight month in December, with households buying a range of goods even as they cut back on purchases of motor vehicles, which could strengthen the view that the economy maintained a moderate growth pace at the end of 2019. The Commerce Department said on Thursday retail sales increased 0.3% last month. Data for November was revised up to show retail sales gaining 0.3% instead of rising 0.2% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast retail sales would gain 0.3% in December. Compared to December last year, retail sales accelerated 5.8%."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by United States Core Retail Sales news events

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USD/CAD: range price movement by United States Core Retail Sales news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by United States Core Retail Sales news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.05 16:01

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, NZD/USD and Brent Crude Oil: ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-02-05 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 199K
• forecast data is 157K
• actual data is 291K according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

==========

From official report :

• "Private-sector employment increased by 291,000 from December to January, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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NZD/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.12 18:23

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day ranging; daily bear market rally to be started

2020-02-12 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 3.4M
• forecast data is 3.1M
• actual data is 7.5M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.5 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.20 19:21

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bullish rangingranging; daily bear market rally with 60 key level

2020-02-20 16:00 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 7.5M
• forecast data is 3.3M
• actual data is 0.4M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 400 thousand barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.26 19:05

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: daily/weekly bearish to be resumed with 53.09 target

2020-02-26 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 0.4M
• forecast data is 2.3M
• actual data is 0.5M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 500 thousand barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.06 15:12

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/CNH, Brent Crude Oil and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-03-06 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 273K
• forecast data is 175K
• actual data is 273K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 273,000 in February, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in health care and social assistance, food services and drinking places, government, construction, professional and technical services, and financial activities."

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USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Brent Crude Oil: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.11 16:46

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: intra-day bearish ranging within 39.68/31.26 support/resistance; 45.11 is the target for the bear market rally

2020-03-11 14:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 0.8M
• forecast data is 2.0M
• actual data is 7.7M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 7.7 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5