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Casual Channel

5

              The trends that you see on the charts are not always trends or, more precisely, trends on which you can make money. The point is that there are two kinds of trends:  1)   true trends that are caused by fundamental economic reasons that are stable and, therefore, can provide a reliable profit for the trader;  2)  and there are false trend sections that only look like a trend and arise due to chains of random events - moving the price (mainly) in one direction. These false trend sections are short and can reverse their direction at any time (and, as a rule, reverse immediately after their identification);  therefore, making money on them (not by chance) is impossible. Visually true and false trends are indistinguishable at the beginning. Moreover, random price movements or the false trends they generate are always superimposed on true trends, which, in particular, can create pullbacks in true trends that need to be identified and distinguished from reversals caused by new fundamental economic causes. 

             The Casual Channel indicator distinguishes between these two types of trends by plotting a random walk channel of the price.  If you attach this indicator to the charts of currency pairs, then these charts, as a rule, will be entirely inside the channel of random walks, within which many trend sections (but not all) are false. At the same time, the price will move from one channel border to another only touching the channel borders. If you attach the Casual Channel to the charts of indices, CFDs, or stocks on large timeframes, then in some cases you may find that their quotes in sufficiently long periods fall outside the random walk channel, namely at the top of the channel in an uptrend and below in a downtrend. In these cases, we have true trends and the higher the chart is above the upper line or below the lower line of the Casual Channel indicator, the stronger the true trend, which can be considered identified if the chart follows approximately one of the indicator lines. 

            The algorithm of this indicator is presented in the article. 

             When opening a buy position on a true uptrend, StopLoss should be placed on the lower line of the indicator, and when opening a sell position on a downtrend, StopLoss should be placed on the upper line of the indicator. In this case, the imposition of false trend sections or random price movements on the true trend, which manifest themselves as rollbacks, will not trigger StopLos, which will only work when the trend reversals. However, CFD trends grow very slowly, and pullbacks during this growth, as a rule, greatly exceed the growth itself, which makes a purely trending strategy low-profit and high-risk.  

             The indicator has a built-in money management function that allows you to calculate a lot for playing with a trend based on the StopLoss line, the deposit and the selected risk level. You can use the same lot value for playing on fluctuations within the channel from one line to another. But playing inside the channel is not recommended, because the inner part of the channel is filled with a purely random process, which does not have to follow exactly from one indicator line to another, but can move from one line into the channel and return to it again.             

          For a reliable game on currency pairs, a special trend-channel strategy has been developed, the essence of which is as follows.

             If there is a trend on a shorter timeframe (on which you open a position), then the price moving away from the channel border on a larger timeframe towards this trend will most likely reach the moving average line in this channel, where then you need to set a take profit.  If the price on a larger timeframe following a trend set on a smaller timeframe has moved away from the moving average along the trend, then it will reach the opposite border of the large channel, on which a take-profit must be set, since the boundaries of the random walk channel are calculated very accurately.

 

    Indicator settings.

  • The averaging period.   Values – any positive integer   (60 default).
  • Calculate the lot size from the risk, deposit and StopLoss? Valuestruefalse.
  • Allowable losses in % from Free Margin . Values: from 0 to 100 (2.0 default).


Reviews 1
keltonactis
1016
keltonactis 2022.11.16 10:47 
 

Very useful.

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Signal Bands
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Iterative Moving Average – IMA.   IMA is obtained by correcting the usual   MA.   The correction consists in addition   to MA averaged difference between the time series (X) and its MA, i.e.   IMA(X)=MA(X) + MA ( Х -MA(X)). Correction is done in several iterations (and, exactly, 2 iterations in this indicator) and with a change in the averaging period.               As a result, the time-series points begin to cluster around (on all sides) of the getting   IMA and with a smaller de
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Structure of the indicator.               The Cunning crocodile indicator consists of three moving averages (applied to the price   Median price   = (high + low)/2 ) :   1) the usual MA ( SMA , EMA , SMMA ,   LWMA )  or the mean <X> of the process X and her two generalizations 2) <XF> = <X / <X >> * <X> and 3) <XS> = <X * <X >> / <X> with the same averaging period. All three curves intersect at common points that (such an intersection in which the cunning crocodile, unlike the usual one, "never
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The principle of the indicator.               A simple moving average (SMA) with an averaging period (2n + 1) of bars is always obtained lagging by n bars. If SMA or other types of moving averages are the basis for making trading decisions, then their strong delay does not allow   to open positions in time and close positions, which leads to losses.                            The Estimation moving average without lag ( EMAWL ) indicator calculates the non-lagging moving average, which is calcula
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The principle of the indicator.               The Strong Trend Flat Signal (STFS) indicator is the intersection of two, developed by the author, non-lagging moving averages with averaging periods 21 and 63.               A simple moving average (SMA) with an averaging period (2n + 1) of bars is always obtained lagging by n bars. If SMA or other types of moving averages are the basis for making trading decisions, then their strong delay does not allow  to open positions in time and close positi
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The principle of the indicator.               The StatChannel ( SC ) indicator is a development of the Bollinger Bands indicator ( ВВ ).  BB is a moving average, on both sides of which two lines are drawn, separated from it by standard deviations std multiplied by the corresponding coefficient. At the same time, a moving average with an averaging period (2n + 1) bars is always obtained lagging behind n bars.  Sliding std is also lagging behind on n bars, also calculated by (2n + 1) points. Such
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The Signal Envelopes   indicator uses the robust filtering method based on: (1) the moving median Buff0 = <Median> = (Max {x} + Min {x}) / 2 and (2) the averaging algorithm developed by the author Buff1 = <(<Median> ) ^ (- 3)> * (<Median>) ^ 4  based on the moving median. The Signal Envelopes   indicator allows you to most accurately and with the minimum possible delay set the beginning of a new trend.  The Signal Envelopes indicator can be used both for trading according to scalpe
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Profit Trade
Aleksey Ivanov
The principle of constructing indicator lines .               Profit Trade  indicator is very effective for trading. Profit Trade  is a deep development of the well-known Donchian channel  indicator. The upper (BlueViolet color) Dup and the lower (IndianRed) Ddn lines of the indicator are constructed in the same way as in the Donchian channel , based on the highest (high of High) and lowest (low of Low) prices for the previous n1 = 20 periods. The middle line (Gold) Dm is constructed in the sam
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The principle of constructing indicator lines and their meaning .               The Signal Channel   indicator uses a robust filtering method based on two moving medians applicable to the High and Low prices, i.e. the lines <High> and <Low>, where <..> is the sign of linear averaging, which are shifted by certain values ​​in an uptrend and by opposite values ​​in a downtrend, which allows you to get a narrow channel, approximately outlining each bar. Sharp kinks of the lines of such a channel a
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Robust Filter
Aleksey Ivanov
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The Robust filter   indicator is based on the robust filtering algorithm developed by the author using the multi-period averaged moving median. The algorithm for this averaging is shown in the last screenshot.                The indicator calculates and shows: 1. The direction of the trend; 2. Entry and exit points of positions; 3. StopLoss   lines calculated from current price probability distributions and selected probability of closing an order by StopLoss before the trend revers
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This   indicator is intended for professionals assessing fundamental market trends.  This indicator calculates the index of any instrument and analyzes it.              The index of the state currency shows the real purchasing power of this currency, and the dynamics of this index shows the dynamics of the economic state of the corresponding state. An analysis of the indices of both currencies included in a currency pair makes it much more reliable to identify the trend of this cur
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The Multicurrency Trend Detector ( MTD ) indicator allows you to immediately and on one chart on a selected time interval (extending from a zero bar to a bar set in the settings by the value horizon) determine the presence, direction and strength of trends in all major currencies, as well as assess the reliability of these trends.               This is achieved by calculating indices (non-relative purchasing power) of eight major currencies, namely: AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, NZ
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StatZigZag
Aleksey Ivanov
The StatZigZag  indicator looks like a regular ZigZag , but is built on the basis of completely different algorithms. The StatZigZag  indicator is a broken line built from segments of regression lines of different lengths, the beginning of each of which comes from the end of the previous segment. Each regression segment is built until the variance or spread of price around it begins to exceed a certain critical value, after which the construction of this segment ends and the constr
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keltonactis
1016
keltonactis 2022.11.16 10:47 
 

Very useful.

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Version 1.20 2022.11.11
Added the ability to remove the logo from the chart
Version 1.10 2021.10.30
Small bug fixed.