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StatPredict

Introduction.

            The indicator predicts the price in accordance with the prevailing trend  and its own small statistical price fluctuations around this trend. At the same time, in StatPredict, you need to set the time horizon of the forecasted events, which is set by the parameter settings of the “ Length of forecast in bars” indicator and determined by the characteristic time scale of the current  trend, which is best measured by the ProfitMACD indicator or by the previous price consolidation period, from which as a forecast horizon, you can take one-fourth.    

             

           The final calculation of the indicator readings after installing it on the chart occurs when a new tick arrives.

             Information about the operation mode of the indicator is printed when it is installed on a chart in the “expert” tab.

       

1. Purpose of the indicator.

             Using mathematical methods for predicting random processes, StatPredict  indicator predicts the most probable values ​​of the future price and calculates the confidence interval for them.

             The StatPredict indicator works on all time scales and is suitable for both long-term play and scalpers. 

             In addition to the position of the most likely forecast points (indicated by arrows oriented by the calculated price movement at the corresponding future bar), considered for the median price (high + low) / 2, StatPredictcalculates the limits of the confidence interval for the predictions that are indicated by triangles and are considered at the top of the confidence channel for maximum price, and at the bottom of the channel for the minimum price. The value of the confidence probability used in the algorithm is specified in the indicator settings.

            Additionally, the indicator also draws an unbiased average curve, which allows for a better determination of the scale of trend movements.

 

2. The use of the indicator in the trade.   

     

             The StatPredict indicator predicts the future emerging from the already established trend trends and steady own “statistical fluctuations” of prices. The prediction algorithm cannot deliberately take into account the strong effects on the price caused by large events that have not yet occurred, such as important news, etc. Therefore, it is incorrect to use StatPredict for the forecast before the release of important news and immediately after their release (it is advisable to wait for the volatility to decrease). It is also incorrect, using the indicator on small timeframes, to capture with its horizon of forecasting the future moments of the release of important news.             

               The use of the indicator is very simple. The indicator with arrows draws the trajectory of the future price movement, on which TakeProfit of the opened positions are placed, and StopLoss are placed on the boundaries of the confidence level channel. With an increase in the forecast price, positions are opened on Buy, and when they fall on Sell.

             StatPredict also provides the option to calculate the lot, based on the positions of the last points of the calculated channel of confidence probability, as well as the size of the deposit and the allowable risk, which are specified in the indicator settings. Lot sizes are printed in the comments (on the MT screen) along with the positions of the corresponding StopLoss.

 

3. Indicator settings.   

  • Length of forecast in bars  - The number of bars that are forecasted. Values: any positive integer    (7 default).
  • Confidence probability - Values:  any real number  from  0  to  0.999 (0.67 default).
  • Global indicator shift (to estimate the forecast)  - Shift indicator to adjust its operation. Values: any positive integer    (0 default).
  • Dimensions of markers  - Marker sizes to display forecast points. Values: any positive integer   from 0 to 5 (3 default). 
  • Calculate the lot size from the risk, deposit and CP*? – Calculate the size of the lot, based on the risk, the size of deposit and channel size of confidence probability level? Values: true, false(default).  
  • Deposit in $ - Deposit amount in dollars (5000 $ default).
  • Allowable losses in % - Permissible loss as the percentage of the deposit (2% default). 


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TPA True Price Action indicator reveals the true price action of the market makers through 100% non-repainting signals (except early signals mode) strictly at the close of a candle! TPA shows entries and re-entries, every time the bulls are definitely stronger than the bears and vice versa. Not to confuse with red/green candles. The shift of power gets confirmed at the earliest stage and is ONE exit strategy of several. There are available now two free parts of the TPA User Guide for our custo
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Aleksey Ivanov
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The Identify Market State   indicator allows you to set the beginning of a new trends and pullbacks on an existing trend. This indicator can be used both for trading on scalper strategies and for long-term trading strategies.               The indicator is based on the 14 periodic DeMarker   indicator and the 8 periodic simple moving average from this indicator. Statistical studies have shown that the sharp peaks of the DeMarker   indicator curve when they drop below its minimum li
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Aleksey Ivanov
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The trends that you see on the charts are not always trends or, more precisely, trends on which you can make money. The point is that there are two kinds of trends:  1)   true trends that are caused by fundamental economic reasons that are stable and, therefore, can provide a reliable profit for the trader;  2)  and there are false trend sections that only look like a trend and arise due to chains of random events - moving the price (mainly) in one direction. These false trend sec
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Aleksey Ivanov
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The Identify Trend indicator, using fairly simple but robust filtering methods (based on the moving median – algorithm XM )  and more complex algorithms (XC, XF, XS, four types of non-lagging moving averages   SMAWL, EMAWL,  SSMAWL, LWMAWL ) developed by the author , allows determined (1) the beginning of a true trend movement very precisely and, most importantly, with a small delay, and (2) identifying the flat. Such an indicator can be used for trading scalper strategies as well
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Quality trend
Aleksey Ivanov
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The Quality trend indicator expresses the ratio of the strength of a trend or the speed of its growth (fall) to the degree of its noisiness or a certain norm of amplitudes of chaotic fluctuations of a growing (falling) price. The position of the indicator line above zero shows an increasing trend, below zero - a falling trend, the fluctuation of the indicator line near zero shows a flat. If the indicator line begins to fluctuate rapidly around zero and approach it, then this indica
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Aleksey Ivanov
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I present an indicator for professionals. ProfitMACD is very similar to classic MACD in appearance and its functions . However, ProfitMACD is based on completely new algorithms (for example, it has only one averaging period) and is more robust, especially on small timeframes, since it filters random price walks. The classic MACD indicator (Moving Average Convergence / Divergence) is a very good indicator following the trend, based on the ratio between two moving averages, namely the EM
Iterative Moving Average – IMA.   IMA is obtained by correcting the usual   MA.   The correction consists in addition   to MA averaged difference between the time series (X) and its MA, i.e.   IMA(X)=MA(X) + MA ( Х -MA(X)). Correction is done in several iterations (and, exactly, 2 iterations in this indicator) and with a change in the averaging period.               As a result, the time-series points begin to cluster around (on all sides) of the getting   IMA and with a smaller de
TrueChannel
Aleksey Ivanov
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The TrueChannel   indicator shows us the true price movement channels. This indicator resembles Donchian Channel   in its appearance, but is built on the basis of completely different principles and gives (in comparison with Donchian Channel , which is better just to use to assess volatility) more adequate trading signals.              As shown in the article , the price actually moves in channels parallel to the time axis and jumps abruptly from the previous channels to the subsequ
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Scientific trade
Aleksey Ivanov
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An extremely convenient indicator that truly makes the process of making money on the exchange easy. It is based on the scientifically rigorous theory of the market developed by the author, the beginning of which is presented here .                The full algorithm of this indicator operation is presented in the article .               The indicator calculates the most probable price movement trajectory and displays it on the chart. Based on the predicted price movement trajectory
Asummetry
Aleksey Ivanov
The principle of the indicator.                             The Asummetry  indicator allows you to predict the beginning of a change in the direction of trends, long before their visual appearance on the price chart.               The author statistically revealed that before changing the direction of the trend, the probability distribution function of the price is made as asymmetric as possible. More precisely, the price movement in any direction always pulls sideways the function of its dis
Absolute Bands
Aleksey Ivanov
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Principles of construction of the indicator.               The Absolute Bands (AB) indicator is reminiscent of the Bollinger Bands indicator with its appearance and functions, but only more effective for trading due to the significantly smaller number of false signals issued to them. This effectiveness of the Absolute Bands indicator is due to its robust nature.               In the Bollinger Bands indicator, on both sides of the moving average - Ma, there are lines spaced from Ma by the standa
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Sensitive Signal
Aleksey Ivanov
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The Sensitive Signal ( SS ) indicator, using the filtering methods  (which includes cluster multicurrency analysis) developed by the author, allows, with a high degree of probability, to establish the beginning of the true (filtered from interference - random price walks) trend movement. It is clear that such an indicator is very effective for trading on the currency exchange , where signals are highly distorted by random noise. The filtration developed by the author is carried out
The Signal Envelopes   indicator uses the robust filtering method based on: (1) the moving median Buff0 = <Median> = (Max {x} + Min {x}) / 2 and (2) the averaging algorithm developed by the author Buff1 = <(<Median> ) ^ (- 3)> * (<Median>) ^ 4  based on the moving median. The Signal Envelopes   indicator allows you to most accurately and with the minimum possible delay set the beginning of a new trend.  The Signal Envelopes indicator can be used both for trading according to scalpe
Firstly , the script estimates how many Mx bars of the chart (on which this script is applied) the future trend will most likely continue and what is its quality. Secondly (and most importantly), the script is an auxiliary tool for the extremely mathematically advanced and extremely effective ScientificTrade indicator in trading. The script calculates the optimal averaging period, which is also equal to Mx, of the ScientificTrade indicator, which gives the maximum profit according to the strate
Profit Trade
Aleksey Ivanov
The principle of constructing indicator lines .               Profit Trade  indicator is very effective for trading. Profit Trade  is a deep development of the well-known Donchian channel  indicator. The upper (BlueViolet color) Dup and the lower (IndianRed) Ddn lines of the indicator are constructed in the same way as in the Donchian channel , based on the highest (high of High) and lowest (low of Low) prices for the previous n1 = 20 periods. The middle line (Gold) Dm is constructed in the sam
Robust Filter
Aleksey Ivanov
5 (1)
The Robust filter   indicator is based on the robust filtering algorithm developed by the author using the multi-period averaged moving median. The algorithm for this averaging is shown in the last screenshot.                The indicator calculates and shows: 1. The direction of the trend; 2. Entry and exit points of positions; 3. StopLoss   lines calculated from current price probability distributions and selected probability of closing an order by StopLoss before the trend revers
Alligator Analysis
Aleksey Ivanov
4.75 (4)
Indicator description.            The “ Alligator Analysis ” ( AA ) indicator allows you to build various (by averaging types and by scales) “ Alligators ” and their combinations, i.e. allows you to analyze the state of the market based on the correlation of this state with a whole range of different " Alligators ".  The classic " Alligator " by Bill Williams is based on moving averages and Fibonacci numbers, which makes it one of the best indicators now. The classic " Alligator "   is based on
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The indicator visualizes the result of the   CalculateScientificTradePeriod    script (which, of course, also needs to be downloaded), which, firstly , estimates how many Mx bars of the active chart the future trend will most likely continue and what is its quality, and, secondly , calculates the optimal the averaging period (which is also equal to Mx) of the ScientificTrade   indicator, which gives the maximum profit according to the extremely effective   ScientificTrade strategy. For the FindS
Channel Builder
Aleksey Ivanov
4.67 (6)
The Channel Builder (CB) or Ivanov Bands indicator is a broad generalization of the Bollinger Bands indicator. First, in CB, the mean line <X> is calculated using various averaging algorithms. Secondly, the mean deviations calculated by Kolmogorov averaging are plotted on both sides of the middle line <X>.                The middle line <X>, besides the standard SMA, EMA, SMMA and LWMA averaging algorithms, can be Median = (Max + Min) / 2 sliding median (which is the default). In
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PDP indicator is used for: defining price probability distributions. This allows for a detailed representation of the channel and its borders and forecast the probability of a price appearing at each segment of its fluctuations; defining the channel change moment. Operation principles and features PDP analyzes a quote history on lower timeframes and calculates a price probability distribution on higher ones. Forecast algorithms allow the indicator to calculate probability distributions and m
Signal Bands
Aleksey Ivanov
Signal Bands is a sensitive and convenient indicator, which performs deep statistical processing of information. It allows to see on one chart (1) the price trend, (2) the clear price channel and (3) latent signs of trend change. The indicator can be used on charts of any periods, but it is especially useful for scalping due to its high sensitivity to the current market state. The functions of the indicator : First, the Signal Bands indicator draws channels into which all price fluctuations ex
Structure of the indicator.               The Cunning crocodile indicator consists of three moving averages (applied to the price   Median price   = (high + low)/2 ) :   1) the usual MA ( SMA , EMA , SMMA ,   LWMA )  or the mean <X> of the process X and her two generalizations 2) <XF> = <X / <X >> * <X> and 3) <XS> = <X * <X >> / <X> with the same averaging period. All three curves intersect at common points that (such an intersection in which the cunning crocodile, unlike the usual one, "never
The principle of the indicator.               A simple moving average (SMA) with an averaging period (2n + 1) of bars is always obtained lagging by n bars. If SMA or other types of moving averages are the basis for making trading decisions, then their strong delay does not allow   to open positions in time and close positions, which leads to losses.                            The Estimation moving average without lag ( EMAWL ) indicator calculates the non-lagging moving average, which is calcula
The principle of the indicator.               The Strong Trend Flat Signal (STFS) indicator is the intersection of two, developed by the author, non-lagging moving averages with averaging periods 21 and 63.               A simple moving average (SMA) with an averaging period (2n + 1) of bars is always obtained lagging by n bars. If SMA or other types of moving averages are the basis for making trading decisions, then their strong delay does not allow  to open positions in time and close positi
StatChannel
Aleksey Ivanov
5 (1)
The principle of the indicator.               The StatChannel ( SC ) indicator is a development of the Bollinger Bands indicator ( ВВ ).  BB is a moving average, on both sides of which two lines are drawn, separated from it by standard deviations std multiplied by the corresponding coefficient. At the same time, a moving average with an averaging period (2n + 1) bars is always obtained lagging behind n bars.  Sliding std is also lagging behind on n bars, also calculated by (2n + 1) points. Such
Indicator is used for: defining price probability distributions. This allows for a detailed representation of the channel and its borders and forecast the probability of a price appearing at each segment of its fluctuations; defining the channel change moment.   Operation principles and features Indicator analyzes a quote history on lower timeframes and calculates a price probability distribution on higher ones. Forecast algorithms allow the indicator to calculate probability distributions and m
The principle of constructing indicator lines and their meaning .               The Signal Channel   indicator uses a robust filtering method based on two moving medians applicable to the High and Low prices, i.e. the lines <High> and <Low>, where <..> is the sign of linear averaging, which are shifted by certain values ​​in an uptrend and by opposite values ​​in a downtrend, which allows you to get a narrow channel, approximately outlining each bar. Sharp kinks of the lines of such a channel a
This   indicator is intended for professionals assessing fundamental market trends.  This indicator calculates the index of any instrument and analyzes it.              The index of the state currency shows the real purchasing power of this currency, and the dynamics of this index shows the dynamics of the economic state of the corresponding state. An analysis of the indices of both currencies included in a currency pair makes it much more reliable to identify the trend of this cur
The Multicurrency Trend Detector ( MTD ) indicator allows you to immediately and on one chart on a selected time interval (extending from a zero bar to a bar set in the settings by the value horizon) determine the presence, direction and strength of trends in all major currencies, as well as assess the reliability of these trends.               This is achieved by calculating indices (non-relative purchasing power) of eight major currencies, namely: AUD, CAD, CHF, EUR, GBP, JPY, NZ
StatZigZag
Aleksey Ivanov
The StatZigZag  indicator looks like a regular ZigZag , but is built on the basis of completely different algorithms. The StatZigZag  indicator is a broken line built from segments of regression lines of different lengths, the beginning of each of which comes from the end of the previous segment. Each regression segment is built until the variance or spread of price around it begins to exceed a certain critical value, after which the construction of this segment ends and the constr
The Velocity of price change   ( VP ) indicator shows the average rate of price change at those characteristic time intervals where this rate was approximately constant. The robust algorithm used in VP   to smooth out the price from its random jumps, ensures the reliability of the indicator reading, which does not react to simple price volatility and its insignificant movements.             The indicator allows you to track trends and the moments of their reversals , during which t
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Version 2.10 2020.08.22
Improved lot calculation algorithm.
Version 2.0 2019.12.06
1. Improved forecast algorithm.
2. Improved confidence interval calculation for the forecast.
3. Improved visualization of predictive information.
Version 1.10 2019.11.24
Fixed a small bug.