Market / MetaTrader 4 / Indicators /

PriceProbabilities

60 USD

Demo downloaded: 46

Published: 3 June 2014

Current version: 1.5

PriceProbabilities

Indicators
Stanislav Korotky
Version: 1.5
Updated: 24 November 2021
Activations: 5

This is a signal indicator for automatic trading which shows probability measures for buys and sells for each bar. It is based on statistical data gathered on existing history and takes into account all observed price changes versus corresponding bar intervals in the past. The core of the indicator is the same as in PriceProbablility indicator intended for manual trading. Unlike PriceProbability this indicator should be called from MQL4 Expert Advisors or used for history visual analysis.

The indicator shows 2 measures:

Plain quantitative measure of buy and sell strengths (green and red thin histigrams), can be used as a secondary signal, or for aggressive trading;
Probability measure as a ratio of buy and sell probabilities (blue and yellow thick histograms), can be used as a primary signal;

It's important to note, that both measures are nondeterministic. Even if a measure counts for almost 100%, this does not guarantee that corresponding price movement does actually occur in near future. Due to the nature of probability, every single signal may behave differently, but overall they conform to general rules. So, in a long perspective the statistical approach yields more wins than losses.

Parameters:

HistoryDepth - number of bars to use for statistic calculations; by default - 5000; the larger - the better; please, make sure that there are no holes in history for the specified number of bars; minimum value is 1000;
ForecastDepth - number of bars to use for probability calculation; bar intervals up to ForecastDepth are taken into account; by default - 100, maximum - 1000; history should contain HistoryDepth plus ForecastDepth bars; NB: only ~1000 bars of history are available in tester at starting point;
MaxBar - number of bars to calculate indicator on; by default - 100; NB! Calculations are very time consuming, so setting MaxBar to 1000 may require minutes to finish processing! when used from an expert, please, set this parameter to 1;
Offset - number of bar to shift processing in history at; by default - 0;
Divider - step of points to use in calculations; by default - 1, which means most accurate calculations in expense of time; when set to a larger value, for example, 10, it will speed up calculations in the specified number of times but results will be rough;
Mode - mode of calculations; allowed values: 0 and 1; by default - 0;

The indicator can operate in 2 modes, any one selected by Mode parameter. The mode 0 is a default one calculating probabilities in a fairly straight-forward manner: any price change on last ForecastDepth bars is taken into account either for buy or sell hypothesis depending from its sign. The mode 1 is a tricky mode - it handles 2 hypotheses for buy and sell conditions separately, that is only positive changes are taken for buy and only negative for sell. The mode 0 better suits medium- and long-term trading, including trends. The mode 1 suits better short-term trading on local price oscillations, without a long-lasting trend conditions.

The indicator is calculated on every new bar, it does not process ticks.

Recommended timeframes: M15 - H1.

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This indicator is an extended implementation of Weis waves. It builds Weis waves on absolute volumes (which is the classical approach) or delta of volumes (unique feature) using different methods of wave formation and visualization. It works with real volumes, if available, or with tick volumes otherwise, but also provides an option to use so called "true volume surrogates", as an artificial substitution for missing real volumes (for example, for Forex symbols), which was introduced in correspo

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This is a demo version of a non-trading expert , which utilizes so called the custom symbols feature ( available in MQL as well ) to build renko charts based on historical quotes of selected standard symbol and to refresh renko in real-time according to new ticks. Also it translates real ticks to the renko charts, which allows other EAs and indicators to trade and analyze renko. Place the EA on a chart of a working instrument. The lesser timeframe of the source chart is, the more precise resulti

FREE

This indicator compares the price changes during the specified period for the current symbol and other reference symbol. It allows to analyze the similar movements of highly correlated symbols, such as XAUUSD and XAGUSD, and find their occasional convergences and divergences for trading opportunities. The indicator displays the following buffers: light-green thick line - price changes of the current symbol for TimeGap bars; light-blue thin line - price changes of the reference symbol ( LeadSymbo

FREE

Most of traders use resistance and support levels for trading, and many people draw these levels as lines that go through extremums on a chart. When someone does this manually, he normally does this his own way, and every trader finds different lines as important. How can one be sure that his vision is correct? This indicator helps to solve this problem. It builds a complete set of virtual lines of resistance and support around current price and calculates density function for spatial distributi

30 USD

Ever wondered why standard ADX is made unsigned and what if it would be kept signed? This indicator gives the answer, which allows you to trade more efficient. This indicator calculates ADX values using standard formulae, but excludes operation of taking the module of ADX values, which is forcedly added into ADX for some reason. In other words, the indicator preserves natural signs of ADX values, which makes it more consistent, easy to use, and gives signals earlier than standard ADX. Strictly s

30 USD

Classical ADX revamped to provide faster and more solid trading signals. This indicator calculates ADX values using standard formulae, but excludes operation of taking the module of ADX values, which is forcedly added into ADX for some reason. In other words, the indicator preserves natural signs of ADX values, which makes it more consistent, easy to use, and gives signals earlier than standard ADX. Strictly speaking, any conversion to an absolute value destroys a part of information, and it mak

30 USD

This indicator provides the analysis of tick volume deltas. It calculates tick volumes for buys and sells separately, and their delta on every bar, and displays volumes by price clusters (cells) within a specified bar (usually the latest one). This is a limited substitution of market delta analysis based on real volumes, which are not available on Forex. The indicator displays the following data in its sub-window: light-blue histogram - buy (long) volumes; orange histogram - sell (short) volumes

30 USD

Order Book, known also as Market Book, market depth, Level 2, - is a dynamically updated table with current volumes of orders to buy and to sell specific financial instument at price levels near Bid and Ask. MetaTrader 5 provides the means for receiving market book from your broker, but in real time only, without access to its history. This expert adviser OrderBook History Playback allows you to playback the market book events on the history using files, created by OrderBook Recorder . The exper

FREE

Order Book, known also as Market Book, market depth, Level 2, - is a dynamically updated table with current volumes of orders to buy and to sell specific financial instument at price levels near Bid and Ask. MetaTrader 5 provides the means for receiving market book from your broker in real time. The expert OrderBook Recorder records market book changes and stores them in local files for further usage in indicators and expert adviser, including testing in the tester. The expert stores market book

FREE

This is an adaptive ZigZag based on modification of HZZ indicator (original source code is available in this article ). Most important changes in this version: two additional indicator buffers added for zigzag evolution monitoring - they show cross signs at points where zigzag direction first changes; zigzag range (H) autodetection on day by day basis; time-dependent adjustment of zigzag range. Parameters: H - zigzag range in points; this parameter is similar to original HZZ, but it can take 0

FREE

The indicator calculates running total of linear weighted returns. It transforms rates into integrated and difference-stationary time series with distinctive buy and sell zones. Buy zones are shown in blue, sell zones in red. Parameters: period - number of bars to use for linear weighted calculation; default value - 96; smoothing - period for EMA; default value - 5; mode - an integer value for choosing calculation mode: 0 - long term trading; 1 - medium term trading; 2 - short term trading; defa

FREE

WalkForwardDemo is an expert adviser (EA) demonstrating how the built-in library WalkForwardOptimizer (WFO) for walk-forward optimization works. It allows you to easily optimize, view and analyze your EA performance and robustness in unknown trading conditions of future. You may find more details about walk-forward optimization in Wikipedia . Once you have performed optimization using WFO, the library generates special global variables (saved in an "archived" file with GVF-extension) and a CSV-f

FREE

This indicator provides a statistical analysis of price changes (in points) versus time delta (in bars). It calculates a matrix of full statistics about price changes during different time periods, and displays either distribution of returns in points for requested bar delta, or distribution of time deltas in bars for requested return. Please, note, that the indicator values are always a number of times corresponding price change vs bar delta occurred in history. Parameters: HistoryDepth - numbe

FREE

This indicator shows price changes for the same days in the past. This is a predictor that finds bars for the same days in past N years, quarters, months, weeks, or days (N is 10 by default) and shows their relative price changes on the current chart. Number of displayed buffers and historical time series for comparison is limited to 10, but indicator can process more past periods if averaging mode is enabled (ShowAverage is true) - just specify required number in the LookBack parameter. Paramet

30 USD

This non-trading expert utilizes so called custom symbols feature ( available in MQL as well ) to build renko charts based on historical quotes of selected standard symbol and to refresh renko in real-time according to new ticks. Also, it translates real ticks to the renko charts, which allows other EAs and indicators to trade and analyze renko. Place RenkoCharts on a chart of a work instrument. The lesser timeframe of the source chart is, the more precise resulting renko chart is, but the lesse

49 USD

If you like trading by candle patterns and want to reinforce this approach by modern technologies, this script is for you. In fact, it is a part of a toolbox, that includes a neural network engine implementing Self-Organizing Map (SOM) for candle patterns recognition, prediction, and provides you with an option to explore input and resulting data. The toolbox contains: SOMFX1Builder - this script for training neural networks; it builds a file with generalized data about most characteristic pric

FREE

OrderBook Utilities is a script, which performs several service operations on order book hob-files, created by OrderBook Recorder . The script processes a file for work symbol of the current chart. The file date is selected by means of the input parameter CustomDate (if it's filled in) or by the point where the script is dropped on the chart. Depending from the operation, useful information is written into the log, and optionally new file is created. The operation is selected by the input parame

FREE

This script allows performing a walk-forward analysis of trading experts based on the data collected by the WalkForwardLight MT5 library. The script builds a cluster walk forward report and rolling walk forward reports that refine it, in the form of a single HTML page. This script is optional, as the library automatically generates the report immediate after the optimization in the tester is complete. However, the script is convenient because it allows using the same collected data to rebuild th

FREE

This indicator shows price changes for the same days in past years. D1 timeframe is required. This is a predictor indicator that finds D1 bars for the same days in past 8 years and shows their relative price changes on the current chart. Parameters: LookForward - number of days (bars) to show "future" price changes; default is 5; Offset - number of days (bars) to shift back in history; default is 0; ShowAverage - mode switch; true - show mean value for all 8 years and deviation bounds; false - s

FREE

This indicator predicts rate changes based on the chart display principle. It uses the idea that the price fluctuations consist of "action" and "reaction" phases, and the "reaction" is comparable and similar to the "action", so mirroring can be used to predict it. The indicator has three parameters: predict - the number of bars for prediction (24 by default); depth - the number of past bars that will be used as mirror points; for all depth mirroring points an MA is calculated and drawn on the ch

30 USD

If you like trading crosses (such as AUDJPY, CADJPY, EURCHF, and similar), you should take into account what happens with major currencies (especially, USD and EUR) against the work pair: for example, while trading AUDJPY, important levels from AUDUSD and USDJPY may have an implicit effect. This indicator allows you to view hidden levels, calculated from the major rates. It finds nearest extremums in major quotes for specified history depth, which most likely form resistence or support levels, a

30 USD

The indicator displays most prominent price levels and their changes in history. It dynamically detects regions where price movements form attractors and shows up to 8 of them. The attractors can serve as resistance or support levels and outer bounds for rates. Parameters: WindowSize - number of bars in the sliding window which is used for detection of attractors; default is 100; MaxBar - number of bars to process (for performance optimization); default is 1000; when the indicator is called from

30 USD

This is an intraday indicator that uses conventional formulae for daily and weekly levels of pivot, resistance and support, but updates them dynamically bar by bar. It answers the question how pivot levels would behave if every bar were considered as the last bar of a day. At every point in time, it takes N latest bars into consideration, where N is either the number of bars in a day (round the clock, i.e. in 24h) or the number of bars in a week - for daily and weekly levels correspondingly. So,

30 USD

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Version 1.5 2021.11.24

Recompilation.

Version 1.4 2016.06.13

The minimum number of bars required to collect statistics has been reduced to 900 (quality of the statistics is low), which allows to run the indicator in the tester with the default settings. The tester initially contains only 1000 bars. HistoryDepth+ForecastDepth must be less than the number of available bars.

Version 1.3 2014.08.20

Fixed some errors in calculations, which may lead to inadequate values on symbols with high historical volatility.

Version 1.2 2014.06.16

1. Statistical data arrays are now allocated dynamically - this is required for some symbols with large price ranges (tens of thousands of points), such as XAUUSD (warning: arrays size may increase significantly);
2. Parameter Offset ignored in previous versions now works as intended;
3. New parameter Overflow added for choosing a method of processing spikes (exceeding array range); default value - false - recommended, as it demonstrates better results.

Version 1.1 2014.06.13

Fixed a redraw problem after terminal restart.