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Montecarlo forecast

FREE

Published: 21 December 2025

Current version: 1.0

Montecarlo forecast

Indicators
Giuseppe Pajusco
Giuseppe Pajusco
Italy

1036
About Me
I entered the trading world in 2020 and quickly developed a strong passion for market analysis and algorithmic trading. Over the years, I have explored a wide range of approaches—from footprint-based scalping and market microstructure techniques to macro-driven position trading.
Version: 1.0

Description of the MonteCarloBands Indicator

The MonteCarloBands indicator is a forward-looking analytical tool that employs the Monte Carlo method to project potential future price scenarios of a financial asset. It appears as a set of five percentile bands extending into the future, visualizing a "probability cone" based on the historical behavior of the market.

Visual Appearance:

P50 (Median): Solid green line at the center, representing the expected median path
P25 and P75: Two orange dotted lines marking the interquartile range (25th-75th percentile)
P5 and P95: Two red dashed lines defining the 90% confidence interval (5th-95th percentile)

Core Functionality:
The indicator analyzes the historical returns of the asset (over a configurable period) and, through thousands of random simulations, generates a distribution of possible future trajectories. The bands represent the statistical percentiles of this distribution, providing a probabilistic visualization of where the price might be located in the future.

Configurable Parameters:

Lookback Period: Number of historical bars analyzed
Future Horizon: Number of bars projected forward
Simulation Count: Number of scenarios generated (higher = more accurate but slower)
Return Type: Option to use logarithmic or simple returns

Interpretation:

The inner bands (P25-P75) represent the most probable area (50% of scenarios)
The outer bands (P5-P95) show more extreme but possible scenarios
The width of the cone indicates expected uncertainty/volatility
The slope of the cone suggests the probable trend direction

Practical Applications:

Risk assessment and potential price range evaluation
Identification of probable future support/resistance levels
Analysis of expected volatility
Support for positioning decisions with a probabilistic approach

The indicator is particularly useful for traders and investors seeking to incorporate a statistical perspective into their analysis, remembering that these are probabilistic projections based on past behavior, not certain predictions.

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Montecarlo forecast

Giuseppe Pajusco