Press review - page 672

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - bearish ranging; 36.37/39.68 are the keys (based on the article)

• "Crude failed to react the way OPEC members anticipated after widely publicized weekend reports of production cuts. Sunday night futures popped at the open and then retreated to the “just barely higher” level. And the Monday close actually took it lower. This is odd — many observers expected the reductions to take price much higher and quickly. But no."
• "It may be the case that the OPEC masterminds are missing how little demand is present right now for their favorite product. Note also how pleasing it is to see photos of Los Angeles without fossil fuel-induced smog. Also, Beijing and other formerly polluted major cities. What will be the ultimate effect on populations who notice the difference, post-pandemic?"

============

The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

USD/CNH Intra-Day Fundamentals: China Trade Balance and range price movement 

2020-04-14 04:47 GMT | [CNY - Trade Balance]

• past data is -43B
• forecast data is 175B
• actual data is 139B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for CNY in our case)

[CNY - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods during the previous month.

==========

From markets.businessinsider article :

• "China's exports and imports declined at a slower than expected pace in March despite the spread of coronavirus, or covid-19 among its major trading partners. In dollar terms, exports decreased 6.6 percent on a yearly basis in March, data from the General Administration of Customs revealed Tuesday. This was slower than the expected decrease of 14 percent. Imports were down 0.9 percent versus the expected decline of 9.5 percent. As a result, the trade balance showed a surplus of $19.9 billion compared to economists' forecast of $18.5 billion."

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by China  Trade Balance news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Netflix Stock: Higher Than Before Coronavirus (based on the article)

• "As coronavirus keeps people indoors, Netflix’s weakness — its total reliance on streaming memberships for revenue — has become its strength as it hit a two-year high in the market on Tuesday while other media companies fret over lost advertising dollars and shut movie theaters."
• "The stock closed at more than $413 per share, its highest price since July 2018."
  

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and NZD/USD: United States Retail Sales Ex Autos

2020-04-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Core Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.4%
• forecast data is -4.9%
• actual data is -4.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Core Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level, excluding automobiles.

==========

From npr.org article :

• "Retail spending is in a free fall — nosediving a record 8.7% last month — as more companies continue to furlough workers as stores, malls and restaurants remain shuttered across the country during the coronavirus pandemic. The March drop was the largest monthly fall since the Commerce Department began tracking retail sales three decades ago. The previous record was a 3.9% drop in November 2008, during the Great Recession. Economists are warning that April might show an even bigger decline in retail spending as shutdowns continue — and in some areas didn't begin in earnest until late March." 
• "Best Buy, for example, said on Wednesday that it's temporarily furloughing 51,000 workers, including almost all part-time workers. It's retaining 82% of the chain's workforce, but many other retailers have fared worse. Macy's and other department stores have temporarily closed and furloughed millions of workers. J.C. Penney is considering filing for bankruptcy, Reuters reported on Tuesday."

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

NZD/USD: range price movement by United States Retail Sales Ex Autos news events

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news event: bearish ranging; 36.37 is the key for the daily price to be reversed

2020-04-15 15:30 GMT | [USD - Crude Oil Inventories]

• past data is 15.2M
• forecast data is 12.1M
• actual data is 19.2M according to the latest press release

[USD - Crude Oil Inventories] = Change in the number of barrels of crude oil held in inventory by commercial firms during the past week.

==========

"U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 19.2 million barrels from the previous week."

==========

Crude Oil: range price movement by  U.S. Commercial Crude Oil Inventories news events 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Quick ZigZag plus DiNapoli - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth 
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2020-04-16 02:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

• past data is 25.6K
• forecast data is -33.0K
• actual data is 5.9K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

• "Unemployment rate remained steady at 5.2%."
• "Employment increased 5,900 to 13,017,600 persons. Full-time employment decreased 400 to 8,882,200 persons and part-time employment increased 6,400 to 4,135,400 persons".
  
• "Unemployment increased 20,300 to 718,600 persons."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia  Employment Change news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• AbsoluteStrengthMarket - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Crude Oil - bearish ranging; 21.64 is the key support level for the primary bearish trend to be continuing; 36.36 is the key resistance for the rally to the bullish reversal to be started (based on the article)

• "Oil has dropped to a twenty-one-year low today. Bears are out for blood. The WTI West Texas Crude Oil dropped over 18% today and reached a low of $14.45, a price level that has surprised traders. The steep fall in price is due to the lack of sufficient demand and lack of storage given that the production cut has failed to address the supply glut. There is a strong possibility that WTI Crude Oil prices will drop to $10. Yes, I mean $10! And, here is why."

• "During the 2015 oil supply glut, there was a heavy focus on the U.S. rig count. As shown in the chart below, the rig count fell to its lowest level in late June 2016. It took a long time for this rig count to reach this level in just under one year. The same rig count measure has started to fall from its peak level, but we are still nowhere close to reaching the same level that pushed oil prices high in 2016. To put things in perspective, the U.S. total rig count is down (from its December 2018 peak) 51%, but it is still up over 25% from its recent low. What’s interesting about the rig count is that it does not work like a light switch, meaning it doesn’t instantly change. It takes time for rigs to go offline due to the complexities of the business, such as terms of contracts and rigs’ operation levels."

• "The bottom line is that there is no doubt that oil prices are way oversold at the current level, but given the circumstances, it is likely that the price may continue to fall further because the rig count hasn’t touched its bottom yet. But, for an investor with a long-term plan, a time frame of twelve to twenty-four months, the current plunge in oil price represents an opportunity."

============

The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Price prediction by Nearest Neighbor found by a weighted correlation coefficient - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Alain Verleyen]

Books will be written about today’ — Oil’s incredible plunge leaves people shocked, searching for answers

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Unemployment Change and range price movement  

2020-04-21 07:00 GMT | [GBP - Claimant Count Change]

• past data is 6.0K
• forecast data is 21.0K
• actual data is 12.2K according to the latest press release

if actual < forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - Claimant Count Change] = Change in the number of people claiming unemployment-related benefits during the previous month.

==========

From forexcrunch article :

• "UK March jobless claims change 12.2K vs +172.5K expected. The UK wages excluding bonuses rose by 2.9% YoY vs. +3.0% expected. The unemployment rate in the UK rose to 4.0% in February."
• "The Office for National Statistics (ONS) showed on Tuesday, The UK’s official jobless rate rose from the previous 3.9% to 4.0% in February, while the claimant count change showed a much smaller-than-expected increase."

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Unemployment Change news event 

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• GMMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After

• The main AscTrend thread is this one.
• Asctrend indicator in depth
• ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included)
• Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

GBP/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: UK Consumer Price Index (CPI) and range price movement  

2020-04-22 07:00 GMT | [GBP - CPI]

• past data is 1.7%
• forecast data is 1.9%
• actual data is 1.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for GBP in our case)

[GBP - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

• "The Consumer Prices Index including owner occupiers’ housing costs (CPIH) 12-month inflation rate was 1.5% in March 2020, down from 1.7% in February 2020."
• "The largest contribution to the CPIH 12-month inflation rate in March 2020 came from housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels (0.51 percentage points)."
• "Falls in the price of motor fuels and clothing resulted in the largest downward contributions to the change in the CPIH 12-month inflation rate between February and March 2020."
  

==========

GBP/USD: range price movement by UK Consumer Price Index news event 

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5