Forecast and levels for AUD - page 16

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.06 12:42

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Interest Rate Decision, RBA Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-11-06 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries. 

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
  • "The Australian economy is performing well. Over the past year, GDP increased by 3.4 per cent and the unemployment rate declined to 5 per cent, the lowest in six years. The forecasts for economic growth in 2018 and 2019 have been revised up a little. The central scenario is for GDP growth to average around 3½ per cent over these two years, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy, as is growth in resource exports. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined. The drought has led to difficult conditions in parts of the farm sector."
  • "Inflation remains low and stable. Over the past year, CPI inflation was 1.9 per cent and, in underlying terms, inflation was 1¾ per cent. These outcomes were in line with the Bank's expectations and were influenced by declines in some administered prices due to changes in government policies. Inflation is expected to pick up over the next couple of years, with the pick-up likely to be gradual. The central scenario is for inflation to be 2¼ per cent in 2019 and a bit higher in the following year."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Interest Rate Decision news event 

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by RBA Interest Rate Decision news event

==========

The charts were made on MT5 with MA Channel Stochastic system uploaded on this post, and using standard indicators from Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.11.15 16:31

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, NZD/USD and Dow Jones Index: United States Advance Retail Sales

2018-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From morningstar article :

  • "Retail sales in the US increased by more than anticipated in the month of October, the Commerce Department revealed in a report released on Thursday. The Commerce Department said retail sales advanced by 0.8% in October following a revised 0.1% dip in September."
  • "The bigger than expected increase in retail sales was partly due to a spike in sales by motor vehicle and parts dealers, which surged up by 1.1% in October after dipping by 0.1% in September."

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news eventsAUD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

==========

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

NZD/USD M5: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

==========

Dow Jones Index H4: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

Dow Jones Index H4: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.03 20:10

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD and AUD/USD: United States Manufacturing ISM Report On Business

2018-12-03 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

  • "Economic activity in the manufacturing sector expanded in November, and the overall economy grew for the 115th consecutive month, say the nation’s supply executives in the latest Manufacturing ISM® Report On Business®."
  • "The report was issued today by Timothy R. Fiore, CPSM, C.P.M., Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: “The November PMI® registered 59.3 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 57.7 percent. The New Orders Index registered 62.1 percent, an increase of 4.7 percentage points from the October reading of 57.4 percent. The Production Index registered 60.6 percent, a 0.7 percentage-point increase compared to the October reading of 59.9 percent. The Employment Index registered 58.4 percent, an increase of 1.6 percentage points from the October reading of 56.8 percent. The Supplier Deliveries Index registered 62.5 percent, a 1.3-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 63.8 percent. The Inventories Index registered 52.9 percent, an increase of 2.2 percentage points from the October reading of 50.7 percent. The Prices Index registered 60.7 percent, a 10.9-percentage point decrease from the October reading of 71.6 percent, indicating higher raw materials prices for the 33rd consecutive month."

==========

GBP/USD M1: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

GBP/USD M1: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

AUD/USD M5: range price movement by ISM Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.04 10:28

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: RBA Cash Rate, Rate Statement and range price movement 

2018-12-04 03:30 GMT | [AUD - Cash Rate]

  • past data is 1.50%
  • forecast data is 1.50%
  • actual data is 1.50% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Cash Rate] = Interest rate charged on overnight loans between financial intermediaries.

==========

From official report :

  • "At its meeting today, the Board decided to leave the cash rate unchanged at 1.50 per cent."
  • "The Australian economy is performing well. The central scenario is for GDP growth to average around 3½ per cent over this year and next, before slowing in 2020 due to slower growth in exports of resources. Business conditions are positive and non-mining business investment is expected to increase. Higher levels of public infrastructure investment are also supporting the economy, as is growth in resource exports. One continuing source of uncertainty is the outlook for household consumption. Growth in household income remains low, debt levels are high and some asset prices have declined. The drought has led to difficult conditions in parts of the farm sector."

==========

AUD/USD M1: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event  

AUD/USD M1: range price movement by RBA Cash Rate news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5: 


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.05 09:24

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2018-12-05 00:30 GMT | [AUD - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

==========

From official report :

  • "The Australian economy grew by 0.3% in seasonally adjusted chain volume terms in the September quarter."
  • "Compensation of employees increased by 1.0%."

==========

AUD/USD M15: range price movement by Australia Gross Domestic Product news event 

AUD/USD M15: range price movement by Australia Gross Domestic Product news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After



 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.12.14 18:47

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index and AUD/USD: U.S. Retail Sales

2018-12-14 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "Advance estimates of U.S. retail and food services sales for November2018, adjusted for seasonal variation and holiday and trading-day differences, but not for price changes, were $513.5 billion, an increase of 0.2 percent (±0.5 percent) from the previous month, and 4.2 percent (±0.5 percent) above November 2017. Total sales for the September 2018 through November 2018 period were up 4.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from the same period a year ago. The September 2018 to October 2018 percent change was revised from up 0.8 percent(±0.5 percent) to up 1.1 percent (±0.2 percent)."
  • "Retail trade sales were up 0.3 percent (±0.5 percent) from October 2018, and 4.0 percent(±0.5 percent) above last year. Nonstore Retailers were up10.8 percent (±1.4 percent) from November 2017, while Gasoline Stations were up 8.2 percent (±1.6 percent) from last year."

==========

Dollar Index M1: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

Dollar Index M5: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

==========

AUD/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

AUD/USD M1: range price movement by U.S. Advance Retail Sales news events

=========

The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.08 09:28

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Trade Balance and range price movement 

2019-01-08 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Trade Balance]

  • past data is 2.01B
  • forecast data is 2.18B
  • actual data is 1.93B according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Trade Balance] = Difference in value between imported and exported goods and services during the reported month.

==========

From official report :

  • "In trend terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $2,259m in November 2018, a decrease of $7m on the surplus in October 2018."
  • "In seasonally adjusted terms, the balance on goods and services was a surplus of $1,925m in November 2018, a decrease of $88m on the surplus in October 2018."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Trade Balance news event

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.11 10:03

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Retail Sales and range price movement 

2019-01-11 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Retail Sales]

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

==========

From official report :

  • "The trend estimate rose 0.2% in November 2018. This follows a rise of 0.2% in October 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in September 2018."
  • "The seasonally adjusted estimate rose 0.4% in November 2018. This follows a rise of 0.3% in October 2018, and a rise of 0.2% in September 2018."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Retail Sales news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.24 09:35

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Employment Change and range price movement 

2019-01-24 00:30 GMT | [AUD - Employment Change]

  • past data is 39.0K
  • forecast data is 17.3K
  • actual data is 21.6K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month.

==========

From official report :

  • "Employment increased 21,600 to 12,714,100. Full-time employment decreased 3,000 to 8,678,800 and part-time employment increased 24,600 to 4,035,300."
  • "Unemployment rate decreased 0.1 percentage points (pts) to 5.0%."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Employment Change news event 

AUDUSD chart by Metatrader 5

============

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


 

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.01.30 10:51

AUD/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Australia Consumer Price Index and range price movement 

2019-01-30 00:30 GMT | [AUD - CPI]

  • past data is 0.4%
  • forecast data is 0.4%
  • actual data is 0.5% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for AUD in our case)

[AUD - CPI] = Change in the price of goods and services purchased by consumers.

==========

From official report :

  • "rose 0.5% this quarter, compared with a rise of 0.4% in the September quarter 2018."
  • "rose 1.8% over the twelve months to the December quarter 2018, compared with a rise of 1.9% over the twelve months to the September quarter 2018."

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Consumer Price Index news event 

AUD/USD: range price movement by Australia Consumer Price Index news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

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