EURUSD moves back toward trend line and MA resistance (based on forexlive article)
'The EURUSD was able to move back above the 100 day MA at the 1.10379 level
and we are now seeing a further move higher in the pair. Earlier today,
the price extended to the 100 hour MA (blue line in the chart below)
and a topside trend line (see blue circles) and held. The price is
looking toward that same combination. This time it is a bit lower at the
Deutsche Bank - What Risk Resilience Implies For Grexit & The EUR (based on efxnews article)
Trade Ideas For EUR/USD, AUD/USD, NZD/USD - UBS (based on efxnews article)
EUR/USD: "It looks like summer markets have kicked in,
but the Greek uncertainty is keeping things alive. We still prefer
shorts even though the range play will most likely continue. Sell at
1.1055 and add at 1.1090 with stops above 1.1125. Flows are mixed with
no clear direction."
AUD/USD: "The RBA kept the target rate on hold, as
expected. Stay short and add on rallies to 0.7550 with stops through
0.7625, targeting 0.7200."
NZD/USD: "price action remains very soft after the pair
got capped above 0.6710 yesterday. We prefer to remain short and add on
rallies toward 0.6750 with stops through 0.6850."
EURUSD has a squeeze higher and a rotation back lower (based on forexlive article)
'The EURUSD moved above the 100 bar MA on the intraday 5-minute chart and
the 50% of the last leg down. That was enough to trigger some stops
above 1.0958. The move back above the 50% of the move up from the March
2015 low at 1.1063 (not shown) also contributed to the rise and the
price scooted to 1.09749.'
EURUSD can't do what it should do technically (based on forexlive article)
"We are midway through the trading week and the EURUSD has a trading
range of 191 pips. ON May 24, the range was 190 pips. ON Feb 8 and Feb
15 the range for the week was 173 and 172 pips. If the EURUSD stayed
inside the current range with 1.10945 as the high and 1.10915 as the
low, it would be the 4th lowest range week this year (we are half way
through). Can it remain low (i.e., keep the same range)? Yes. It it
likely? UMMM.... I like to think at some point a boundary will be
JP Morgan about EUR/USD: Levels & Targets (based on efxnews article)
"EUR/USD overnight break above 1.0983/1.1002 (minor 38.2 %/pivot)
eased some downside pressure, but only through clear moves above 1.1094
and 1.1108 (h.Ich.-lagging/h. trend) we’d reach neutral territory," says JP Morgan.
the downside, JPM sees the next T-zone between 1.0815 and
1.0783/72/44/04 (May low/c=a/d. Ich.-lagg./int. 76.4 %//daily trend)."
Trading news events - Bank of England (BoE) Interest Rate Decision (based on dailyfx article)
The Bank of England (BoE) interest rate decision may offer little relief
to recent decline in GBP/USD as the central bank is widely expected to
retain its current policy in July, and the committee may continue to
endorse a wait-and-see approach amid the growing threat of a Greek exit.
Why Is This Event Important:
Heightening uncertainties surrounding the Euro-Zone – the U.K.’s
largest trading partner – may prompt the BoE to further delay its
normalization cycle, and the British Pound may face additional headwinds
in the second-half of the year should Governor Mark Carney highlight a
more dovish outlook for monetary policy.
However, the BoE may largely retain its current policy throughout the
remainder of the year as the geopolitical risks surrounding the U.K.
dampens the outlook for growth and inflation, and the central bank may
carry the record-low interest rate into 2016 in an effort to encourage a
How To Trade This Event Risk
Bullish GBP Trade: BoE to Stay on Course to Remove Record-Low Interest Rate
Credit Agricole - Keep Selling Rallies In EUR & AUD (based on efxnews article)
"Although such an outcome would trigger EUR upside, we remain of the view that rallies should be sold.
This is due to investors’ preference of using the single currency for
funding investments in riskier assets such as equities and as the ECB is
unlikely to turn less dovish anytime soon."
"In Australia June employment data was released above
expectations. This in turn supports expectations of stabilizing price
developments to the benefit of investors’ central bank rate
expectations. This in combination with stabilizing China-related
sentiment has been keeping the AUD in demand."
"In the short-term we do not expect further upside on the back
of further improving risk sentiment. From a broader angle, however,
rallies should still be sold as any tightening of monetary conditions on
the back of a further appreciating currency is unlikely welcomed by the
BNP Paribas - How To Trade Greece's End-Game (based on efxnews article)
1. Sell EUR relief rallies against USD, GBP:
"This scenario produces a relief rally across most asset classes.
European equities would rally and peripheral spreads would narrow. It is
unlikely the EUR would appreciate broadly as it is difficult to argue
that the single currency is trading at a discount to valuation. Outcome 1 would provide a catalyst for the re-establishment of EUR-funded carry trades," BNPP advises.
"Accordingly, the EUR should depreciate, especially against higher yielders such as the USD and GBP. A
clear exception would be EURCHF, which is likely to rally in this
scenario. The CHF has served as a safe-haven – as indicated by the net
long exposure of +24.," BNPP projects.
2. Sell EUR/JPY:
"This is the scenario the market fears...We view that EURJPY
shorts would perform even better in this scenario, as an anticipated
delay to Fed tightening would weaken the USD," BNPP advises.
Morgan Stanley evaluated some long-term/short term scenarios concerning EUR in case of Greece (based on efxnews article)