Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

Just because ticks are constantly flowing in doesn’t mean every moment is an opportunity to trade. Today, we take an in-depth study into the art of timing—focusing on developing a time isolation algorithm to help traders identify and trade within their most favorable market windows. Cultivating this discipline allows retail traders to synchronize more closely with institutional timing, where precision and patience often define success. Join this discussion as we explore the science of timing and selective trading through the analytical capabilities of MQL5.

Discover how to fix a critical flaw in financial machine learning that causes overfit models and poor live performance—label concurrency. When using the triple-barrier method, your training labels overlap in time, violating the core IID assumption of most ML algorithms. This article provides a hands-on solution through sample weighting. You will learn how to quantify temporal overlap between trading signals, calculate sample weights that reflect each observation's unique information, and implement these weights in scikit-learn to build more robust classifiers. Learning these essential techniques will make your trading models more robust, reliable and profitable.

This article helps new community members search for and discover their own candlestick patterns. Describing these patterns can be daunting, as it requires manually searching and creatively identifying improvements. Here, we introduce the engulfing candlestick pattern and show how it can be enhanced for more profitable trading applications.

This time I will analyze the Ant Colony optimization algorithm. The algorithm is very interesting and complex. In the article, I make an attempt to create a new type of ACO.

In this article, we will explore what pair trading is and how correlation trading works. We will also create an EA for automating pair trading and add the ability to automatically optimize this trading algorithm based on historical data. In addition, as part of the project, we will learn how to calculate the differences between two pairs using the z-score.

These advanced gradient-boosted decision tree techniques offer superior performance and flexibility, making them ideal for financial modeling and algorithmic trading. Learn how to leverage these tools to optimize your trading strategies, improve predictive accuracy, and gain a competitive edge in the financial markets.

Before we can even begin to make use of ML in our trading on MetaTrader 5, it’s crucial to address one of the most overlooked pitfalls—data leakage. This article unpacks how data leakage, particularly the MetaTrader 5 timestamp trap, can distort our model's performance and lead to unreliable trading signals. By diving into the mechanics of this issue and presenting strategies to prevent it, we pave the way for building robust machine learning models that deliver trustworthy predictions in live trading environments.

Price action can be effectively analyzed by identifying divergences, with technical indicators such as the RSI providing crucial confirmation signals. In the article below, we explain how automated RSI divergence analysis can identify trend continuations and reversals, thereby offering valuable insights into market sentiment.

Ridge regression is a simple technique to reduce model complexity and prevent over-fitting which may result from simple linear regression

Let's start by clarifying the current situation, because we didn't start in the best way. If we don't do it now, we'll be in trouble soon.

Developing a trading robot based on machine learning: A detailed guide. The first article in the series deals with collecting and preparing data and features. The project is implemented using the Python programming language and libraries, as well as the MetaTrader 5 platform.

In this article I will show the first part of the improvements that allowed me not only to close the entire automation chain for MetaTrader 4 and 5 trading, but also to do something much more interesting. From now on, this solution allows me to fully automate both creating EAs and optimization, as well as to minimize labor costs for finding effective trading configurations.

Metamodels in machine learning: Auto creation of trading systems with little or no human intervention — The model decides when and how to trade on its own.

Decision trees imitate the way humans think to classify data. Let's see how to build trees and use them to classify and predict some data. The main goal of the decision trees algorithm is to separate the data with impurity and into pure or close to nodes.

In this article, we will create a mathematical model for simulating multicurrency pricing and complete the study of the diversification principle as part of the search for mechanisms to increase the trading efficiency, which I started in the previous article with theoretical calculations.

Fibonacci tools are among the most popular instruments used by technical analysts. In this article, we’ll build an Interactive Fibonacci EA that draws retracement and extension levels that react dynamically to price movement, delivering real‑time alerts, stylish lines, and a scrolling news‑style headline. Another key advantage of this EA is flexibility; you can manually type the high (A) and low (B) swing values directly on the chart, giving you exact control over the market range you want to analyze.

The article considers the probabilistic price field evolution equation and the upcoming price spike criterion. It also reveals the essence of price values on charts and the mechanism for the occurrence of a random walk of these values.

In this article, we will create an arbitration system that remains legal in the eyes of brokers, creates thousands of synthetic prices on the Forex market, analyzes them, and successfully trades for profit.

This study introduces a novel methodology for the development of trend-following trading strategies. This section describes the process of annotating training data and using it to train classifiers. This process yields fully operational trading systems designed to run on MetaTrader 5.

Knowing how to input data from the Web into an Expert Advisor is not so obvious. It is not so easy to do without understanding all the possibilities offered by MetaTrader 5.

Forecasting the movements of currency pairs is an important factor in trading success. This article explores various price movement models, analyzes their advantages and disadvantages, and explores their practical application in trading strategies. We will consider approaches that allow us to identify hidden patterns and improve the accuracy of forecasts.

Self-training EA with a neural network based on a state matrix. We combine Markov chains with a multilayer neural network MLP developed using the ALGLIB MQL5 library. How can Markov chains and neural networks be combined for Forex forecasting?

As a price action observer and trader, I've noticed that when a trend is confirmed by multiple timeframes, it usually continues in that direction. What may vary is how long the trend lasts, and this depends on the type of trader you are, whether you hold positions for the long term or engage in scalping. The timeframes you choose for confirmation play a crucial role. Check out this article for a quick, automated system that helps you analyze the overall trend across different timeframes with just a button click or regular updates.