Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

For decades, traders have been using the Kelly Criterion formula to determine the optimal proportion of capital to allocate to an investment or bet to maximize long-term growth while minimizing the risk of ruin. However, blindly following Kelly Criterion using the result of a single backtest is often dangerous for individual traders, as in live trading, trading edge diminishes over time, and past performance is no predictor of future result. In this article, I will present a realistic approach to applying the Kelly Criterion for one or more EA's risk allocation in MetaTrader 5, incorporating Monte Carlo simulation results from Python.

Artificial Cooperative Search (ACS) is an innovative method using a binary matrix and multiple dynamic populations based on mutualistic relationships and cooperation to find optimal solutions quickly and accurately. ACS unique approach to predators and prey enables it to achieve excellent results in numerical optimization problems.

In the previous article, we made some fixes and added tests to our replication system to ensure the best possible stability. We also started creating and using a configuration file for this system.

We consider XLY, SPDR’s consumer discretionary spending ETF and see if with tools in MetaTrader’s IDE we can sift through an array of data sets in selecting what could work with a forecasting model with a forward outlook of not more than a year.

In our series on integrating MQL5 with data processing packages, we delve in to the powerful combination of machine learning and predictive analysis. We will explore how to seamlessly connect MQL5 with popular machine learning libraries, to enable sophisticated predictive models for financial markets.

In this article, we’ll advance the News Headline EA by introducing a dedicated indicator insights lane—a compact, on-chart display of key technical signals generated from popular indicators such as RSI, MACD, Stochastic, and CCI. This approach eliminates the need for multiple indicator subwindows on the MetaTrader 5 terminal, keeping your workspace clean and efficient. By leveraging the MQL5 API to access indicator data in the background, we can process and visualize market insights in real-time using custom logic. Join us as we explore how to manipulate indicator data in MQL5 to create an intelligent and space-saving scrolling insights system, all within a single horizontal lane on your trading chart.

We continue our experiment that aims to examine the behavior of population optimization algorithms in the context of their ability to efficiently escape local minima when population diversity is low and reach global maxima. Research results are provided.

Finally, our Chart Trade indicator starts interacting with the EA, allowing information to be transferred interactively. Therefore, in this article, we will improve the indicator, making it functional enough to be used together with any EA. This will allow us to access the Chart Trade indicator and work with it as if it were actually connected with an EA. But we will do it in a much more interesting way than before.

The article considers an interesting algorithm derived from inanimate nature - intelligent water drops (IWD) simulating the process of river bed formation. The ideas of this algorithm made it possible to significantly improve the previous leader of the rating - SDS. As usual, the new leader (modified SDSm) can be found in the attachment.

The first part was devoted to the well-known and popular algorithm - simulated annealing. We have thoroughly considered its pros and cons. The second part of the article is devoted to the radical transformation of the algorithm, which turns it into a new optimization algorithm - Simulated Isotropic Annealing (SIA).

In this article, we will implement the first solution that will allow us to determine when a new bar may appear on the chart. This solution is applicable in a wide variety of situations. Understanding its development will help you grasp several important aspects. The content presented here is intended solely for educational purposes. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.

Data classification for purposes of analysis and forecasting is a very diverse arena within machine learning and it features a large number of approaches and methods. This piece looks at one such approach, namely Agglomerative Hierarchical Classification.

We will solve the chart ID problem and at the same time we will begin to provide the user with the ability to use a personal template for the analysis and simulation of the desired asset. The materials presented here are for didactic purposes only and should in no way be considered as an application for any purpose other than studying and mastering the concepts presented.

Restricted Boltzmann Machines are a form of neural network that was developed in the mid 1980s at a time when compute resources were prohibitively expensive. At its onset, it relied on Gibbs Sampling and Contrastive Divergence in order to reduce dimensionality or capture the hidden probabilities/properties over input training data sets. We examine how Backpropagation can perform similarly when the RBM ‘embeds’ prices for a forecasting Multi-Layer-Perceptron.

In this discussion, we take a step further in breaking down our MQL5 program into smaller, more manageable modules. These modular components will then be integrated into the main program, enhancing its organization and maintainability. This approach simplifies the structure of our main program and makes the individual components reusable in other Expert Advisors (EAs) and indicator developments. By adopting this modular design, we create a solid foundation for future enhancements, benefiting both our project and the broader developer community.

Previously, we evaluated the selection of a group of trading strategy instances, with the aim of improving the results of their joint operation, only on the same time period, in which the optimization of individual instances was carried out. Let's see what happens in the forward period.

In strategy development, there are many intricate details to consider, many of which are not highlighted for beginner traders. As a result, many traders, myself included, have had to learn these lessons the hard way. This article is based on my observations of common pitfalls that most beginner traders encounter when developing strategies on MQL5. It will offer a range of tips, tricks, and examples to help identify the disqualification of an EA and test the robustness of our own EAs in an easy-to-implement way. The goal is to educate readers, helping them avoid future scams when purchasing EAs as well as preventing mistakes in their own strategy development.

Strategies that are based on multiple time frames cannot be tested in wizard assembled Expert Advisors by default because of the MQL5 code architecture used in the assembly classes. We explore a possible work around this limitation for strategies that look to use multiple time frames in a case study with the quadratic moving average.

Proximal Policy Optimization is another algorithm in reinforcement learning that updates the policy, often in network form, in very small incremental steps to ensure the model stability. We examine how this could be of use, as we have with previous articles, in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.

This article describes the fundamentals of portfolio-level statistical arbitrage. Its goal is to facilitate the understanding of the principles of statistical arbitrage to readers without deep math knowledge and propose a starting point conceptual framework. The article includes a working Expert Advisor, some notes about its one-year backtest, and the respective backtest configuration settings (.ini file) for the reproduction of the experiment.

The Fractals by Bill Williams is a potent indicator that is easy to overlook when one initially spots it on a price chart. It appears too busy and probably not incisive enough. We aim to draw away this curtain on this indicator by examining what its various patterns could accomplish when examined with forward walk tests on all, with wizard assembled Expert Advisor.

Tired of wasting time searching for that very file that you application needs in order to work? How about including everything in the executable? This way you won't have to search for the things. I know that many people use this form of distribution and storage, but there is a much more suitable way. At least as far as the distribution of executable files and their storage is concerned. The method that will be presented here can be very useful, since you can use MetaTrader 5 itself as an excellent assistant, as well as MQL5. Furthermore, it is not that difficult to understand.

Most people who want or dream of learning to program don't actually have a clue what they're doing. Their activity consists of trying to create things in a certain way. However, programming is not about tailoring suitable solutions. Doing it this way can create more problems than solutions. Here we will be doing something more advanced and therefore different.

In this article, we will begin to address the issue of tick excess that can impact application performance when using real data. This excess often interferes with the correct timing required to construct a one-minute bar in the appropriate window.

In this series of articles, we have considered multiple different ways of identifying the best period to use our technical indicators with. Today, we shall demonstrate to the reader how they can instead perform the opposite logic, that is to say, instead of picking the single best period to use, we will demonstrate to the reader how to employ all available periods effectively. This approach reduces the amount of data discarded, and offers alternative use cases for machine learning algorithms beyond ordinary price prediction.

The article considers the Atomic Orbital Search (AOS) algorithm, which uses the concepts of the atomic orbital model to simulate the search for solutions. The algorithm is based on probability distributions and the dynamics of interactions in the atom. The article discusses in detail the mathematical aspects of AOS, including updating the positions of candidate solutions and the mechanisms of energy absorption and release. AOS opens new horizons for applying quantum principles to computing problems by offering an innovative approach to optimization.

The article considers a metaheuristic Artificial Ecosystem-based Optimization (AEO) algorithm, which simulates interactions between ecosystem components by creating an initial population of solutions and applying adaptive update strategies, and describes in detail the stages of AEO operation, including the consumption and decomposition phases, as well as different agent behavior strategies. The article introduces the features and advantages of this algorithm.

Economic Calendar Data is not available for testing with Expert Advisors within Strategy Tester, by default. We look at how Databases could help in providing a work around this limitation. So, for this article we explore how SQLite databases can be used to archive Economic Calendar news such that wizard assembled Expert Advisors can use this to generate trade signals.

The article explores the bird swarm-based algorithm (BSA) inspired by the collective flocking interactions of birds in nature. The different search strategies of individuals in BSA, including switching between flight, vigilance and foraging behavior, make this algorithm multifaceted. It uses the principles of bird flocking, communication, adaptability, leading and following to efficiently find optimal solutions.

After improving the C_Mouse class, we can focus on creating a class designed to create a completely new framework fr our analysis. We will not use inheritance or polymorphism to create this new class. Instead, we will change, or better said, add new objects to the price line. That's what we will do in this article. In the next one, we will look at how to change the analysis. All this will be done without changing the code of the C_Mouse class. Well, actually, it would be easier to achieve this using inheritance or polymorphism. However, there are other methods to achieve the same result.

Regularization is a form of penalizing the loss function in proportion to the discrete weighting applied throughout the various layers of a neural network. We look at the significance, for some of the various regularization forms, this can have in test runs with a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.

In this article, we will consider the Artificial Bee Hive Algorithm (ABHA) developed in 2009. The algorithm is aimed at solving continuous optimization problems. We will look at how ABHA draws inspiration from the behavior of a bee colony, where each bee has a unique role that helps them find resources more efficiently.