Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

Principal Component Analysis, a dimensionality reducing technique in data analysis, is looked at in this article, with how it could be implemented with Eigen values and vectors. As always, we aim to develop a prototype expert-signal-class usable in the MQL5 wizard.

In this article, I will introduce a very important tool for developers. If you are not familiar with GIT, read this article to get an idea of what it is and how to use it with MQL5.

Discover the secrets of algorithmic alchemy as we guide you through the blend of artistry and precision in decoding financial landscapes. Unearth how Random Forests transform data into predictive prowess, offering a unique perspective on navigating the complex terrain of stock markets. Join us on this journey into the heart of financial wizardry, where we demystify the role of Random Forests in shaping market destiny and unlocking the doors to lucrative opportunities

Here we are going to develop a script from scratch that simplifies unloading print screens of deals for analyzing trading entries. All the necessary information on a single deal is to be conveniently displayed on one chart with the ability to draw different timeframes.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful statistical tools that identify underlying market states by analyzing observable price movements. In trading, HMMs enhance volatility prediction and inform trend-following strategies by modeling and anticipating shifts in market regimes. In this article, we will present the complete procedure for developing a trend-following strategy that utilizes HMMs to predict volatility as a filter.

The article observes classical tools of correlation analysis. An emphasis is made on brief theoretical background, as well as on the practical implementation of the Pearson chi-square test of independence and the correlation ratio.

Here we'll see how custom events are triggered and how the indicator reports the state of the replay/simulation service.

You might not have noticed that the matrix modeling was a little strange, since only columns were specified, not rows and columns. This looks very strange when reading the code that performs matrix factorizations. If you were expecting to see the rows and columns listed, you might get confused when trying to factorize. Moreover, this matrix modeling method is not the best. This is because when we model matrices in this way, we encounter some limitations that force us to use other methods or functions that would not be necessary if the modeling were done in a more appropriate way.

Linear Kernels are the simplest matrix of its kind used in machine learning for linear regression and support vector machines. The Matérn kernel on the other hand is a more versatile version of the Radial Basis Function we looked at in an earlier article, and it is adept at mapping functions that are not as smooth as the RBF would assume. We build a custom signal class that utilizes both kernels in forecasting long and short conditions.

Determining market direction can be straightforward, but knowing when to enter can be challenging. As part of the series titled "Price Action Analysis Toolkit Development", I am excited to introduce another tool that provides entry points, take profit levels, and stop loss placements. To achieve this, we have utilized the MQL5 programming language. Let’s delve into each step in this article.

The ATR oscillator is a very popular indicator for acting as a volatility proxy, especially in the forex markets where volume data is scarce. We examine this, on a pattern basis as we have with prior indicators, and share strategies & test reports thanks to the MQL5 wizard library classes and assembly.

Today we will remove a limitation that has been preventing simulations based on the Last price and will introduce a new entry point specifically for this type of simulation. The entire operating mechanism will be based on the principles of the forex market. The main difference in this procedure is the separation of Bid and Last simulations. However, it is important to note that the methodology used to randomize the time and adjust it to be compatible with the C_Replay class remains identical in both simulations. This is good because changes in one mode lead to automatic improvements in the other, especially when it comes to handling time between ticks.

Now the creation occurs at the same point where we converted ticks into bars. This way, if something goes wrong during the conversion process, we will immediately notice the error. This is because the same code that places 1-minute bars on the chart during fast forwarding is also used for the positioning system to place bars during normal performance. In other words, the code that is responsible for this task is not duplicated anywhere else. This way we get a much better system for both maintenance and improvement.

In this article, we will look at the binary genetic algorithm (BGA), which models the natural processes that occur in the genetic material of living things in nature.

Although this is the third article on this topic, I must explain for those who have not yet understood the difference between the stock market and the foreign exchange market: the big difference is that in the Forex there is no, or rather, we are not given information about some points that actually occurred during the course of trading.

Discover how to effortlessly import and utilize the History Manager EX5 library in your MQL5 source code to process trade histories in your MetaTrader 5 account in this series' final article. With simple one-line function calls in MQL5, you can efficiently manage and analyze your trading data. Additionally, you will learn how to create different trade history analytics scripts and develop a price-based Expert Advisor as practical use-case examples. The example EA leverages price data and the History Manager EX5 library to make informed trading decisions, adjust trade volumes, and implement recovery strategies based on previously closed trades.

Moving Averages are a very common indicator that are used and understood by most Traders. We explore possible use cases that may not be so common within MQL5 Wizard assembled Expert Advisors.

CatBoost is a powerful tree-based machine learning model that specializes in decision-making based on stationary features. Other tree-based models like XGBoost and Random Forest share similar traits in terms of their robustness, ability to handle complex patterns, and interpretability. These models have a wide range of uses, from feature analysis to risk management. In this article, we're going to walk through the procedure of utilizing a trained CatBoost model as a filter for a classic moving average cross trend-following strategy. This article is meant to provide insights into the strategy development process while addressing the challenges one may face along the way. I will introduce my workflow of fetching data from MetaTrader 5, training machine learning model in Python, and integrating back to MetaTrader 5 Expert Advisors. By the end of this article, we will validate the strategy through statistical testing and discuss future aspirations extending from the current approach.

This article discusses the use of the Go-Explore algorithm over a long training period, since the random action selection strategy may not lead to a profitable pass as training time increases.

In this article, we will finally begin to do what we wanted to do much earlier. However, due to the lack of "solid ground", I did not feel confident to present this part publicly. Now I have the basis to do this. I suggest that you focus as much as possible on understanding the content of this article. I mean not simply reading it. I want to emphasize that if you do not understand this article, you can completely give up hope of understanding the content of the following ones.

Detecting patterns in financial markets is challenging because it involves seeing what's on the chart, something that's difficult to undertake in MQL5 due to image limitations. In this article, we are going to discuss a decent model made in Python that helps us detect patterns present on the chart with minimal effort.

In this article, we will look into one of the most difficult issues in the field of MQL5 programming: how to correctly obtain a chart ID, and why objects are sometimes not plotted on the chart. The materials presented here are for didactic purposes only. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.

In this article, we discuss the concept of dynamic time warping as a means of identifying predictive patterns in financial time series. We will look into how it works as well as present its implementation in pure MQL5.

In this article we present the implementation of several risk return metrics billed as alternatives to the Sharpe ratio and examine hypothetical equity curves to analyze their characteristics.

The article considers the algorithm of the MEC family called the simple mind evolutionary computation algorithm (Simple MEC, SMEC). The algorithm is distinguished by the beauty of its idea and ease of implementation.

Let's create something more interesting. I don't want to spoil the surprise, so follow the article for a better understanding. From the very beginning of this series on developing the replay/simulator system, I was saying that the idea is to use the MetaTrader 5 platform in the same way both in the system we are developing and in the real market. It is important that this is done properly. No one wants to train and learn to fight using one tool while having to use another one during the fight.

In the ever-changing world of trading, adapting to market shifts is not just a choice—it's a necessity. New patterns and trends emerge everyday, making it harder even the most advanced machine learning models to stay effective in the face of evolving conditions. In this article, we’ll explore how to keep your models relevant and responsive to new market data by automatically retraining.

In this article, we will look at how to put together the first of a number of truly functional modules for use in the replay/simulator system that will also be of general purpose to serve other purposes. We are talking about the mouse module.

In this article, we will consider the algorithm that demonstrates the most controversial results of all those discussed previously - the differential evolution (DE) algorithm.

Larry Connors is a renowned trader and author, best known for his work in quantitative trading and strategies like the 2-period RSI (RSI2), which helps identify short-term overbought and oversold market conditions. In this article, we’ll first explain the motivation behind our research, then recreate three of Connors’ most famous strategies in MQL5 and apply them to intraday trading of the S&P 500 index CFD.

With the rapid development of artificial intelligence today, language models (LLMs) are an important part of artificial intelligence, so we should think about how to integrate powerful LLMs into our algorithmic trading. For most people, it is difficult to fine-tune these powerful models according to their needs, deploy them locally, and then apply them to algorithmic trading. This series of articles will take a step-by-step approach to achieve this goal.

The Ichimuko Kinko Hyo is a renown Japanese indicator that serves as a trend identification system. We examine this, on a pattern by pattern basis, as has been the case in previous similar articles, and also assess its strategies & test reports with the help of the MQL5 wizard library classes and assembly.