Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

K-Means clustering takes the approach to grouping data points as a process that’s initially focused on the macro view of a data set that uses random generated cluster centroids before zooming in and adjusting these centroids to accurately represent the data set. We will look at this and exploit a few of its use cases.

In this article, we develop a Crab Harmonic Pattern system in MQL5 that identifies bullish and bearish Crab harmonic patterns using pivot points and Fibonacci ratios, triggering trades with precise entry, stop loss, and take-profit levels. We incorporate visual feedback through chart objects like triangles and trendlines to display the XABCD pattern structure and trade levels.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful statistical tools that identify underlying market states by analyzing observable price movements. In trading, HMMs enhance volatility prediction and inform trend-following strategies by modeling and anticipating shifts in market regimes. In this article, we will present the complete procedure for developing a trend-following strategy that utilizes HMMs to predict volatility as a filter.

Gary Anderson developed a method of market analysis based on a theory he dubbed the Janus Factor. The theory describes a set of indicators that can be used to reveal trends and assess market risk. In this article we will implement these tools in mql5.

Fish School Search (FSS) is a new optimization algorithm inspired by the behavior of fish in a school, most of which (up to 80%) swim in an organized community of relatives. It has been proven that fish aggregations play an important role in the efficiency of foraging and protection from predators.

We will continue to build a system for working in the FOREX market. In order to solve this problem, we must first declare the loading of ticks before loading the previous bars. This solves the problem, but at the same time forces the user to follow some structure in the configuration file, which, personally, does not make much sense to me. The reason is that by designing a program that is responsible for analyzing and executing what is in the configuration file, we can allow the user to declare the elements he needs in any order.

The Market Structure Flip Detector Expert Advisor (EA) acts as your vigilant partner, constantly observing shifts in market sentiment. By utilizing Average True Range (ATR)-based thresholds, it effectively detects structure flips and labels each Higher Low and Lower High with clear indicators. Thanks to MQL5’s swift execution and flexible API, this tool offers real-time analysis that adjusts the display for optimal readability and provides a live dashboard to monitor flip counts and timings. Furthermore, customizable sound and push notifications guarantee that you stay informed of critical signals, allowing you to see how straightforward inputs and helper routines can transform price movements into actionable strategies.

Fibonacci retracements are a popular tool in technical analysis, helping traders identify potential reversal zones. In this article, we’ll explore how these retracement levels can be transformed into target variables for machine learning models to help them understand the market better using this powerful tool.

We are going to develop a professional indicator for currency strength analysis in MQL5. This step-by-step guide will show you how to develop a powerful trading tool with a visual dashboard for MetaTrader 5. You will learn how to calculate the strength of currency pairs across multiple timeframes (H1, H4, D1), implement dynamic data updates, and create a user-friendly interface.

Geometric patterns offer traders a concise way to interpret price action. Many analysts draw trend lines, rectangles, and other shapes by hand, and then base trading decisions on the formations they see. In this article, we explore an automated alternative: harnessing MQL5 to detect and analyze the most popular geometric patterns. We’ll break down the methodology, discuss implementation details, and highlight how automated pattern recognition can sharpen a trader's market insights.

In this article, we will rethink code locks, transforming them from security mechanisms into tools for solving complex optimization problems. Discover the world of code locks viewed not as simple security devices, but as inspiration for a new approach to optimization. We will create a whole population of "locks", where each lock represents a unique solution to the problem. We will then develop an algorithm that will "pick" these locks and find optimal solutions in a variety of areas, from machine learning to trading systems development.

This article discusses the creation of a Messaging Interface for MetaTrader 5, aimed at System Administrators, to facilitate communication with other traders directly within the platform. Recent integrations of social platforms with MQL5 allow for quick signal broadcasting across different channels. Imagine being able to validate sent signals with just a click—either "YES" or "NO." Read on to learn more.

In this article, we will begin to stabilize the entire system, without which we might not be able to proceed to the next steps.

Discover the indispensable role of Support Vector Machines (SVM) in shaping the future of trading. This comprehensive guide explores how SVM can elevate your trading strategies, enhance decision-making, and unlock new opportunities in the financial markets. Dive into the world of SVM with real-world applications, step-by-step tutorials, and expert insights. Equip yourself with the essential tool that can help you navigate the complexities of modern trading. Elevate your trading game with SVM—a must-have for every trader's toolbox.

Discover how to fix a critical flaw in financial machine learning that causes overfit models and poor live performance—label concurrency. When using the triple-barrier method, your training labels overlap in time, violating the core IID assumption of most ML algorithms. This article provides a hands-on solution through sample weighting. You will learn how to quantify temporal overlap between trading signals, calculate sample weights that reflect each observation's unique information, and implement these weights in scikit-learn to build more robust classifiers. Learning these essential techniques will make your trading models more robust, reliable and profitable.

In this discussion, we will set the foundation for using powerful linear, algebra tools that are implemented in the MQL5 matrix and vector API. For us to make proficient use of this API, we need to have a firm understanding of the principles in linear algebra that govern intelligent use of these methods. This article aims to get the reader an intuitive level of understanding of some of the most important rules of linear algebra that we, as algorithmic traders in MQL5 need,to get started, taking advantage of this powerful library.

In our previous article, we introduced a simple script called "The Quarters Drawer." Building on that foundation, we are now taking the next step by creating a monitor Expert Advisor (EA) to track these quarters and provide oversight regarding potential market reactions at these levels. Join us as we explore the process of developing a zone detection tool in this article.

Forecasting the movements of currency pairs is an important factor in trading success. This article explores various price movement models, analyzes their advantages and disadvantages, and explores their practical application in trading strategies. We will consider approaches that allow us to identify hidden patterns and improve the accuracy of forecasts.

Many traders have experienced this situation, often stick to their entry criteria but struggle with trade management. Even with the right setups, emotional decision-making—such as panic exits before trades reach their take-profit or stop-loss levels—can lead to a declining equity curve. How can traders overcome this issue and improve their results? This article will address these questions by examining random win-rates and demonstrating, through Monte Carlo simulation, how traders can refine their strategies by taking profits at reasonable levels before the original target is reached.

In this article we continue considering how to obtain data from the web and to use it in an Expert Advisor. This time we will proceed to developing an alternative system.

The article presents an implementation of the Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for training feedforward neural networks. A comparative analysis of performance with algorithms from the scikit-learn Python library has been conducted. Simpler learning methods, such as gradient descent, gradient descent with momentum, and stochastic gradient descent are preliminarily discussed.

Detecting patterns in financial markets is challenging because it involves seeing what's on the chart, something that's difficult to undertake in MQL5 due to image limitations. In this article, we are going to discuss a decent model made in Python that helps us detect patterns present on the chart with minimal effort.

Do you know what really drives a currency pair’s direction? It’s the strength of each individual currency. In this article, we’ll measure a currency’s strength by looping through every pair it appears in. That insight lets us predict how those pairs may move based on their relative strengths. Read on to learn more.

In this article we demonstrate how Hidden Markov Models trained using Python can be integrated into MetaTrader 5 applications. Hidden Markov Models are a powerful statistical tool used for modeling time series data, where the system being modeled is characterized by unobservable (hidden) states. A fundamental premise of HMMs is that the probability of being in a given state at a particular time depends on the process's state at the previous time slot.

The article explores the possibility of improving price forecasting based on trading volume analysis by integrating technical analysis principles with LSTM neural network architecture. Particular attention is paid to the detection and interpretation of anomalous volumes, the use of clustering and the creation of features based on volumes and their definition in the context of machine learning.

The ATR oscillator is a very popular indicator for acting as a volatility proxy, especially in the forex markets where volume data is scarce. We examine this, on a pattern basis as we have with prior indicators, and share strategies & test reports thanks to the MQL5 wizard library classes and assembly.

The article considers a new population optimization algorithm - Cyclic Parthenogenesis Algorithm (CPA), inspired by the unique reproductive strategy of aphids. The algorithm combines two reproduction mechanisms — parthenogenesis and sexual reproduction — and also utilizes the colonial structure of the population with the possibility of migration between colonies. The key features of the algorithm are adaptive switching between different reproductive strategies and a system of information exchange between colonies through the flight mechanism.

The initial goal of this article is not to cover all the possibilities of Forex trading, but rather to adapt the system so that you can perform at least one market replay. We'll leave simulation for another moment. However, if we don't have ticks and only bars, with a little effort we can simulate possible trades that could happen in the Forex market. This will be the case until we look at how to adapt the simulator. An attempt to work with Forex data inside the system without modifying it leads to a range of errors.