Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

In this article we present the implementation of several risk return metrics billed as alternatives to the Sharpe ratio and examine hypothetical equity curves to analyze their characteristics.

How does the market observe Fibonacci-based relationships? This sequence, where each subsequent number is equal to the sum of the two previous ones (1, 1, 2, 3, 5, 8, 13, 21...), not only describes the growth of the rabbit population. We will consider the Pythagorean hypothesis that everything in the world is subject to certain relationships of numbers...

Moving Averages are a very common indicator that are used and understood by most Traders. We explore possible use cases that may not be so common within MQL5 Wizard assembled Expert Advisors.

News accessibility is a critical factor when trading on the MetaTrader 5 terminal. While numerous news APIs are available, many traders face challenges in accessing and integrating them effectively into their trading environment. In this discussion, we aim to develop a streamlined solution that brings news directly onto the chart—where it’s most needed. We'll accomplish this by building a News Headline Expert Advisor that monitors and displays real-time news updates from API sources.

In this article, we will look at how to lock the indicator while simply using the MQL5 language, and we will do it in a very interesting and amazing way.

As the year approaches its end, long-term traders often reflect on market history to analyze its behavior and trends, aiming to project potential future movements. In this article, we will explore the development of a long-term entry monitoring Expert Advisor (EA) using MQL5. The objective is to address the challenge of missed long-term trading opportunities caused by manual trading and the absence of automated monitoring systems. We'll use one of the most prominently traded pairs as an example to strategize and develop our solution effectively.

In this article, we will see how to develop a quality score that your Expert Advisor can display in the strategy tester. We will look at two well-known calculation methods – Van Tharp and Sunny Harris.

In this article, we explore a powerful MQL5 tool that let's you test any price level you desire with just one click. Simply enter your chosen level and press analyze, the EA instantly scans historical data, highlights every touch and breakout on the chart, and displays statistics in a clean, organized dashboard. You'll see exactly how often price respected or broke through your level, and whether it behaved more like support or resistance. Continue reading to explore the detailed procedure.

This Expert Advisor, named SMOC (likely standing for Stochastic Model Optimal Control), is a simple example of an advanced algorithmic trading system for MetaTrader 5. It uses a combination of technical indicators, model predictive control, and dynamic risk management to make trading decisions. The EA incorporates adaptive parameters, volatility-based position sizing, and trend analysis to optimize its performance across varying market conditions.

In this article, we will consider conformal predictions and the MAPIE library that implements them. This approach is one of the most modern ones in machine learning and allows us to focus on risk management for existing diverse machine learning models. Conformal predictions, by themselves, are not a way to find patterns in data. They only determine the degree of confidence of existing models in predicting specific examples and allow filtering for reliable predictions.

In this discussion, we contrast the classical approach to time series cross-validation with modern alternatives that challenge its core assumptions. We expose key blind spots in the traditional method—especially its failure to account for evolving market conditions. To address these gaps, we introduce Effective Memory Cross-Validation (EMCV), a domain-aware approach that questions the long-held belief that more historical data always improves performance.

This article describes a simple but comprehensive statistical arbitrage pipeline for trading a basket of cointegrated stocks. It includes a fully functional Python script for data download and storage; correlation, cointegration, and stationarity tests, along with a sample Metatrader 5 Service implementation for database updating, and the respective Expert Advisor. Some design choices are documented here for reference and for helping in the experiment replication.

In this article, we enhance the Smart WaveTrend Crossover indicator in MQL5 by integrating canvas-based drawing for fog gradient overlays, signal boxes that detect breakouts, and customizable buy/sell bubbles or triangles for visual alerts. We incorporate risk management features with dynamic take-profit and stop-loss levels calculated via candle multipliers or percentages, displayed through lines and a table, alongside options for trend filtering and box extensions.

Soft Actor Critic is a Reinforcement Learning algorithm that utilizes 3 neural networks. An actor network and 2 critic networks. These machine learning models are paired in a master slave partnership where the critics are modelled to improve the forecast accuracy of the actor network. While also introducing ONNX in these series, we explore how these ideas could be put to test as a custom signal of a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.

Let's create something more interesting. I don't want to spoil the surprise, so follow the article for a better understanding. From the very beginning of this series on developing the replay/simulator system, I was saying that the idea is to use the MetaTrader 5 platform in the same way both in the system we are developing and in the real market. It is important that this is done properly. No one wants to train and learn to fight using one tool while having to use another one during the fight.

Today we will remove a limitation that has been preventing simulations based on the Last price and will introduce a new entry point specifically for this type of simulation. The entire operating mechanism will be based on the principles of the forex market. The main difference in this procedure is the separation of Bid and Last simulations. However, it is important to note that the methodology used to randomize the time and adjust it to be compatible with the C_Replay class remains identical in both simulations. This is good because changes in one mode lead to automatic improvements in the other, especially when it comes to handling time between ticks.

In this article, we will look at how to transmit information in real time between the indicator and the service, and also understand why problems may arise when changing the timeframe and how to solve them. As a bonus, you will get access to the latest version of the replay /simulation app.

We determine the overbought and oversold condition of the market according to chaos theory: integrating the principles of chaos theory, fractal geometry and neural networks to forecast financial markets. The study demonstrates the use of the Lyapunov exponent as a measure of market randomness and the dynamic adaptation of trading signals. The methodology includes an algorithm for generating fractal noise, hyperbolic tangent activation, and moment optimization.

In this article, we will look at how to use the CustomBookAdd function correctly and effectively. Despite its apparent simplicity, it has many nuances. For example, it allows you to tell the mouse indicator whether a custom symbol is on auction, being traded, or the market is closed. The content presented here is intended solely for educational purposes. Under no circumstances should the application be viewed for any purpose other than to learn and master the concepts presented.

In today's discussion, we explore how to self-host open-source AI models and use them to generate market insights. This forms part of our ongoing effort to expand the News Headline EA, introducing an AI Insights Lane that transforms it into a multi-integration assistive tool. The upgraded EA aims to keep traders informed through calendar events, financial breaking news, technical indicators, and now AI-generated market perspectives—offering timely, diverse, and intelligent support to trading decisions. Join the conversation as we explore practical integration strategies and how MQL5 can collaborate with external resources to build a powerful and intelligent trading work terminal.

Let's try mining CFTC data, downloading COT and TFF reports via Python, connecting all this with MetaTrader 5 quotes and an AI model, and get forecasts. What are COT reports in the Forex market? How to use COT and TFF reports for forecasting?

In this article, we enhance the correlation matrix dashboard in MQL5 with interactive features like panel dragging, minimizing/maximizing, hover effects on buttons and timeframes, and mouse event handling for improved user experience. We add sorting of symbols by average correlation strength in ascending/descending modes, toggle between correlation and p-value views, and incorporate light/dark theme switching with dynamic color updates.

This article presents a MetaTrader 5–compatible backtesting workflow that scales across symbols and timeframes. We use HistoryManager to parallelize data collection, synchronize bars and ticks from all timeframes, and run symbol‑isolated OnTick handlers in threads. You will learn how modelling modes affect speed/accuracy, when to rely on terminal data, how to reduce I/O with event‑driven updates, and how to assemble a complete multicurrency trading robot.

This article discusses the use of the Go-Explore algorithm over a long training period, since the random action selection strategy may not lead to a profitable pass as training time increases.

The article considers the algorithm of the MEC family called the simple mind evolutionary computation algorithm (Simple MEC, SMEC). The algorithm is distinguished by the beauty of its idea and ease of implementation.

Today we will begin the second stage, where we will look at the market replay/simulation system. First, we will show a possible solution for cross orders. I will show you the solution, but it is not final yet. It will be a possible solution to a problem that we will need to solve in the near future.

Now the creation occurs at the same point where we converted ticks into bars. This way, if something goes wrong during the conversion process, we will immediately notice the error. This is because the same code that places 1-minute bars on the chart during fast forwarding is also used for the positioning system to place bars during normal performance. In other words, the code that is responsible for this task is not duplicated anywhere else. This way we get a much better system for both maintenance and improvement.

In this article, we introduce functions similar to those provided by the Python-MetaTrader 5 module, providing a simulator with a familiar interface and a custom way of handling bars and ticks internally.

In this article, we will attempt to predict the market with a decent model for time series forecasting named DeepAR. A model that is a combination of deep neural networks and autoregressive properties found in models like ARIMA and Vector Autoregressive (VAR).

This article builds a complete Recurrence Quantification Analysis (RQA) toolkit for MetaTrader 5 in pure MQL5. We cover phase-space reconstruction, time-delay embedding, distance and recurrence matrix construction, RQA metric extraction, automatic epsilon selection, and rolling-window computation through a modular library design. The article concludes by applying the library in a practical indicator that plots RR, DET, LAM, ENTR, and TREND directly on the chart, providing a solid foundation for nonlinear time-series analysis in MQL5.

We present a timer-based MQL5 EA for Opening Range Breakout aligned to NYSE hours. It screens “Stocks in Play” via opening-range relative volume, enforces price/volume/ATR minimums, sizes positions by risk, and exits at 16:00 ET. A Sharpe-ranked optimization across 30 liquid Nasdaq stocks and a single-symbol test are provided, together with backtest settings and an Excel report for verification.

Although this is the third article on this topic, I must explain for those who have not yet understood the difference between the stock market and the foreign exchange market: the big difference is that in the Forex there is no, or rather, we are not given information about some points that actually occurred during the course of trading.

Economic Calendar Data is not available for testing with Expert Advisors within Strategy Tester, by default. We look at how Databases could help in providing a work around this limitation. So, for this article we explore how SQLite databases can be used to archive Economic Calendar news such that wizard assembled Expert Advisors can use this to generate trade signals.

Adaptation of the classical CAPM model for the Forex currency market in MQL5. The indicator calculates expected return and risk premium based on historical volatility. The indicators rise at peaks and bottoms, reflecting the fundamental principles of pricing. Practical application for counter-trend and trend-following strategies, taking into account the dynamics of the risk-reward ratio in real time. The article includes mathematical apparatus and technical implementation.