Articles on data analysis and statistics in MQL5

We continue considering association rules. In the previous article, we have discussed theoretical aspect of this type of problem. In this article, I will show the implementation of the FP Growth method using MQL5. We will also test the implemented solution using real data.

Discover how to fix a critical flaw in financial machine learning that causes overfit models and poor live performance—label concurrency. When using the triple-barrier method, your training labels overlap in time, violating the core IID assumption of most ML algorithms. This article provides a hands-on solution through sample weighting. You will learn how to quantify temporal overlap between trading signals, calculate sample weights that reflect each observation's unique information, and implement these weights in scikit-learn to build more robust classifiers. Learning these essential techniques will make your trading models more robust, reliable and profitable.

Forecasting the movements of currency pairs is an important factor in trading success. This article explores various price movement models, analyzes their advantages and disadvantages, and explores their practical application in trading strategies. We will consider approaches that allow us to identify hidden patterns and improve the accuracy of forecasts.

E. coli bacterium foraging strategy inspired scientists to create the BFO optimization algorithm. The algorithm contains original ideas and promising approaches to optimization and is worthy of further study.

Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which as of yet is relatively uncovered in the MQL community. These series of articles look to introduce and examine some of its concepts with the overall goal of establishing an open library that attracts comments and discussion while hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.

Self-training EA with a neural network based on a state matrix. We combine Markov chains with a multilayer neural network MLP developed using the ALGLIB MQL5 library. How can Markov chains and neural networks be combined for Forex forecasting?

The gradient descent plays a significant role in training neural networks and many machine learning algorithms. It is a quick and intelligent algorithm despite its impressive work it is still misunderstood by a lot of data scientists let's see what it is all about.

Let's consider one of the newest modern optimization algorithms - Grey Wolf Optimization. The original behavior on test functions makes this algorithm one of the most interesting among the ones considered earlier. This is one of the top algorithms for use in training neural networks, smooth functions with many variables.

In this fourth part, we revisit the Simple Hedge and Simple Grid Expert Advisors (EAs) developed earlier. Our focus shifts to refining the Simple Grid EA through mathematical analysis and a brute force approach, aiming for optimal strategy usage. This article delves deep into the mathematical optimization of the strategy, setting the stage for future exploration of coding-based optimization in later installments.

Unlike linear regression, polynomial regression is a flexible model aimed to perform better at tasks the linear regression model could not handle, Let's find out how to make polynomial models in MQL5 and make something positive out of it.

This article describes the fundamentals of portfolio-level statistical arbitrage. Its goal is to facilitate the understanding of the principles of statistical arbitrage to readers without deep math knowledge and propose a starting point conceptual framework. The article includes a working Expert Advisor, some notes about its one-year backtest, and the respective backtest configuration settings (.ini file) for the reproduction of the experiment.

Candlestick patterns help traders understand market psychology and identify trends in financial markets, they enable more informed trading decisions that can lead to better outcomes. In this article, we will explore how to use candlestick patterns with AI models to achieve optimal trading performance.

This time, let's try a different approach to achieve the 1 minute goal. However, this task is not as simple as one might think.

In the previous article, we have created a class for data clustering. In this article, I want to share variants of the possible application of obtained results in solving practical trading tasks.

Master the power of VWAP with our comprehensive guide! Learn how to integrate VWAP analysis into your trading strategy using MQL5 and Python. Maximize your market insights and improve your trading decisions today.

We continue to consider the clustering method. In this article, we will create a new CKmeans class to implement one of the most common k-means clustering methods. During tests, the model managed to identify about 500 patterns.

Today we are going to use Chart Trade again, but this time it will be an on-chart indicator which may or may not be present on the chart.

This series of articles introduces several time series labeling methods, which can create data that meets most artificial intelligence models, and targeted data labeling according to needs can make the trained artificial intelligence model more in line with the expected design, improve the accuracy of our model, and even help the model make a qualitative leap!

The article describes the properties of the non-linear model of conditional heteroscedasticity (GARCH). The iGARCH indicator has been built on its basis for predicting volatility one step ahead. The ALGLIB numerical analysis library is used to estimate the model parameters.

News trading can be complicated and overwhelming, in this article we will go through steps to obtain news data. Additionally we will learn about the MQL5 Economic Calendar and what it has to offer.

Implementation of the Logger class for unifying and structuring messages which are printed to the Experts log. Connection to the Seq log collection and analysis system. Monitoring log messages online.

Hidden Markov Models (HMMs) are powerful statistical tools that identify underlying market states by analyzing observable price movements. In trading, HMMs enhance volatility prediction and inform trend-following strategies by modeling and anticipating shifts in market regimes. In this article, we will present the complete procedure for developing a trend-following strategy that utilizes HMMs to predict volatility as a filter.

In the last two articles, we developed a tool for creating and editing neural network models. Now it is time to evaluate the potential use of Transfer Learning technology using practical examples.

This article implements a regime-adaptive grid trading EA based on the PhD research of Aldo Taranto. It presents a regime‑adaptive grid trading EA that constrains risk through restartable cycles and equity‑based safeguards. We explain why naive grids fail (variance growth and almost‑sure ruin), derive the loss formula for real‑time exposure, and implement regime‑aware gating, ATR‑dynamic spacing, and a live kill switch. Readers get the mathematical tools and production patterns needed to build, test, and operate a constrained grid safely.

Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is a type of recurrent neural network (RNN) designed to model sequential data by effectively capturing long-term dependencies and addressing the vanishing gradient problem. In this article, we will explore how to utilize LSTM to predict future trends, enhancing the performance of trend-following strategies. The article will cover the introduction of key concepts and the motivation behind development, fetching data from MetaTrader 5, using that data to train the model in Python, integrating the machine learning model into MQL5, and reflecting on the results and future aspirations based on statistical backtesting.

MQL5 offers endless opportunities to develop automated trading systems tailored to your preferences. Did you know it can even perform complex mathematical calculations? In this article, we introduce the Japanese Heikin-Ashi technique as an automated trading strategy.

Every trader's ultimate goal is profitability, which is why many set specific profit targets to achieve within a defined trading period. In this article, we will use Monte Carlo simulations to determine the optimal risk percentage per trade needed to meet trading objectives. The results will help traders assess whether their profit targets are realistic or overly ambitious. Finally, we will discuss which parameters can be adjusted to establish a practical risk percentage per trade that aligns with trading goals.