Articles on machine learning in trading

This article introduces the Conformer algorithm originally developed for the purpose of weather forecasting, which in terms of variability and capriciousness can be compared to financial markets. Conformer is a complex method. It combines the advantages of attention models and ordinary differential equations.

In this discussion, we contrast the classical approach to time series cross-validation with modern alternatives that challenge its core assumptions. We expose key blind spots in the traditional method—especially its failure to account for evolving market conditions. To address these gaps, we introduce Effective Memory Cross-Validation (EMCV), a domain-aware approach that questions the long-held belief that more historical data always improves performance.

Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which as of yet is relatively uncovered in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to introduce and examine some of its concepts with the overall goal of establishing an open library that provides insight while hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.

Transformer architecture-based models demonstrate high efficiency, but their use is complicated by high resource costs both at the training stage and during operation. In this article, I propose to get acquainted with algorithms that allow to reduce memory usage of such models.

In this article, I would like to introduce you to an interesting trajectory prediction method developed to solve problems in the field of autonomous vehicle movements. The authors of the method combined the best elements of various architectural solutions.

Soft Actor Critic is a Reinforcement Learning algorithm that utilizes 3 neural networks. An actor network and 2 critic networks. These machine learning models are paired in a master slave partnership where the critics are modelled to improve the forecast accuracy of the actor network. While also introducing ONNX in these series, we explore how these ideas could be put to test as a custom signal of a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.

In the context of reinforcement learning, model procrastination can be caused by several reasons. The article considers some of the possible causes of model procrastination and methods for overcoming them.

We determine the overbought and oversold condition of the market according to chaos theory: integrating the principles of chaos theory, fractal geometry and neural networks to forecast financial markets. The study demonstrates the use of the Lyapunov exponent as a measure of market randomness and the dynamic adaptation of trading signals. The methodology includes an algorithm for generating fractal noise, hyperbolic tangent activation, and moment optimization.

We follow up on our last article, where we introduced the indicator pair of the MACD and the OBV, by looking at how this pairing could be enhanced with Machine Learning. MACD and OBV are a trend and volume complimentary pairing. Our machine learning approach uses a convolution neural network that engages the Exponential kernel in sizing its kernels and channels, when fine-tuning the forecasts of this indicator pairing. As always, this is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.

In this article we will build a basic neuron. And although it looks simple, and many may consider this code completely trivial and meaningless, I want you to have fun studying this simple sketch of a neuron. Don't be afraid to modify the code, understanding it fully is the goal.

We will add Deep Learning to those three examples that were published in previous articles and compare results with previous. The aim is to learn how to add DL to other EA.

In this article, we discuss Directional Diffusion Models that exploit data-dependent anisotropic and directed noise in a forward diffusion process to capture meaningful graph representations.

Here I will consider the fairly new Stochastic Marginal Actor-Critic (SMAC) algorithm, which allows building latent variable policies within the framework of entropy maximization.

This guide integrates a trained XGBoost model (ONNX) into an SMC EA to evaluate trade setups before execution. The Python pipeline labels historical XAUUSD events and produces a 12-feature representation aligned with the EA. The result is a reproducible method to train, export, and embed the model so the EA can filter OB, FVG, and BOS signals programmatically.

The article considers the algorithm of the MEC family called the simple mind evolutionary computation algorithm (Simple MEC, SMEC). The algorithm is distinguished by the beauty of its idea and ease of implementation.

We will analyze alternative data curated by the Chicago Board Of Options Exchange (CBOE) to improve the accuracy of our deep neural networks when forecasting the XAUEUR symbol.

In this article, we will consider conformal predictions and the MAPIE library that implements them. This approach is one of the most modern ones in machine learning and allows us to focus on risk management for existing diverse machine learning models. Conformal predictions, by themselves, are not a way to find patterns in data. They only determine the degree of confidence of existing models in predicting specific examples and allow filtering for reliable predictions.

This article discusses the use of the Go-Explore algorithm over a long training period, since the random action selection strategy may not lead to a profitable pass as training time increases.

Tree-based classifiers are typically overconfident: true win rates near 0.55 appear as 0.65–0.80 and inflate position sizes and Kelly fractions. This article presents afml.calibration and CalibratorCV, which generate out-of-fold predictions via PurgedKFold and fit isotonic regression or Platt scaling. We define Brier score, ECE, and MCE, and show diagnostics that trace miscalibration into position sizes, realized P&L, and CPCV path Sharpe distributions to support leakage-free, correctly sized trading.

The Learning Rate, is a step size towards a training target in many machine learning algorithms’ training processes. We examine the impact its many schedules and formats can have on the performance of a Generative Adversarial Network, a type of neural network that we had examined in an earlier article.

In this article. we will discuss a method of complex multimodal interaction analysis and feature understanding.

Let's try mining CFTC data, downloading COT and TFF reports via Python, connecting all this with MetaTrader 5 quotes and an AI model, and get forecasts. What are COT reports in the Forex market? How to use COT and TFF reports for forecasting?

When exploring various model architecture designs, we often devote insufficient attention to the process of model training. In this article, I aim to address this gap.

Economic Calendar Data is not available for testing with Expert Advisors within Strategy Tester, by default. We look at how Databases could help in providing a work around this limitation. So, for this article we explore how SQLite databases can be used to archive Economic Calendar news such that wizard assembled Expert Advisors can use this to generate trade signals.

In the last piece, we concluded our look at the pairing of the gator oscillator and the accumulation/distribution oscillator when used in their typical setting of the raw signals they generate. These two indicators are complimentary as trend and volume indicators, respectively. We now follow up that piece, by examining the effect that supervised learning can have on enhancing some of the feature patterns we had reviewed. Our supervised learning approach is a CNN that engages with kernel regression and dot product similarity to size its kernels and channels. As always, we do this in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.

In today's discussion, we examine the strategy of multiple time-frame analysis to learn on which time frame our AI model performs best. Our analysis leads us to conclude that the Monthly and Hourly time-frames produce models with relatively low error rates on the EURUSD pair. We used this to our advantage and created a trading algorithm that makes AI predictions on the Monthly time frame, and executes its trades on the Hourly time frame.

In this article, we will attempt to predict the market with a decent model for time series forecasting named DeepAR. A model that is a combination of deep neural networks and autoregressive properties found in models like ARIMA and Vector Autoregressive (VAR).

Adaptation of the classical CAPM model for the Forex currency market in MQL5. The indicator calculates expected return and risk premium based on historical volatility. The indicators rise at peaks and bottoms, reflecting the fundamental principles of pricing. Practical application for counter-trend and trend-following strategies, taking into account the dynamics of the risk-reward ratio in real time. The article includes mathematical apparatus and technical implementation.

The quality of future state predictions plays an important role in the Goal-Conditioned Predictive Coding method, which we discussed in the previous article. In this article I want to introduce you to an algorithm that can significantly improve the prediction quality in stochastic environments, such as financial markets.

In this article we will talk about using space-time transformations to effectively predict upcoming price movement. To improve the numerical prediction accuracy in STNN, a continuous attention mechanism is proposed that allows the model to better consider important aspects of the data.

The article describes hierarchical training models that offer an effective approach to solving complex machine learning problems. Hierarchical models consist of several levels, each of which is responsible for different aspects of the task.

We continue to integrate methods proposed by the authors of the Attraos framework into trading models. Let me remind you that this framework uses concepts of chaos theory to solve time series forecasting problems, interpreting them as projections of multidimensional chaotic dynamic systems.

I present to you my new population optimization algorithm - Blood Inheritance Optimization (BIO), inspired by the human blood group inheritance system. In this algorithm, each solution has its own "blood type" that determines the way it evolves. Just as in nature where a child's blood type is inherited according to specific rules, in BIO new solutions acquire their characteristics through a system of inheritance and mutations.