Articles on machine learning in trading
Creating AI-based trading robots: native integration with Python, matrices and vectors, math and statistics libraries and much more.
Find out how to use machine learning in trading. Neurons, perceptrons, convolutional and recurrent networks, predictive models — start with the basics and work your way up to developing your own AI. You will learn how to train and apply neural networks for algorithmic trading in financial markets.
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Data Science and ML (Part 47): Forecasting the Market Using the DeepAR model in Python
In this article, we will attempt to predict the market with a decent model for time series forecasting named DeepAR. A model that is a combination of deep neural networks and autoregressive properties found in models like ARIMA and Vector Autoregressive (VAR).
CAPM Model Indicator for the Forex Market
Adaptation of the classical CAPM model for the Forex currency market in MQL5. The indicator calculates expected return and risk premium based on historical volatility. The indicators rise at peaks and bottoms, reflecting the fundamental principles of pricing. Practical application for counter-trend and trend-following strategies, taking into account the dynamics of the risk-reward ratio in real time. The article includes mathematical apparatus and technical implementation.
Population optimization algorithms: Mind Evolutionary Computation (MEC) algorithm
The article considers the algorithm of the MEC family called the simple mind evolutionary computation algorithm (Simple MEC, SMEC). The algorithm is distinguished by the beauty of its idea and ease of implementation.
Neuro-Structural Trading Engine — NSTE (Part I): How to Build a Prop-Firm-Safe Multi-Account System
This article lays the system architecture for a multi‑account algorithmic trading setup that operates cryptocurrency CFDs on MetaTrader 5 while respecting prop‑firm constraints. It defines three core principles—fixed dollar risk, one script per account, and centralized configuration—then details the Python–MQL5 split, the 60‑second processing loop, and JSON-based signaling. Readers get practical lot‑size computation, safety checks, and position management patterns for reliable deployment.
Feature Engineering for ML (Part 1): Fractional Differentiation — Stationarity Without Memory Loss
Integer differentiation forces a binary choice between stationarity and memory: returns (d=1) are stationary but discard all price-level information; raw prices (d=0) preserve memory but violate ML stationarity assumptions. We implement the fixed-width fractional differentiation (FFD) method from AFML Chapter 5, covering get_weights_ffd (iterative recurrence with threshold cutoff), frac_diff_ffd (bounded dot product per bar), and fracdiff_optimal (binary search for minimum stationary d*).
Crystal Structure Algorithm (CryStAl)
This article presents two versions of the Crystal Structure Algorithm: the original and the modified version. The Crystal Structure Algorithm (CryStAl), published in 2021 and inspired by the physics of crystal structures, was positioned as a parameter-free metaheuristic for global optimization. However, testing revealed a critical problem with the algorithm. A modified version, CryStAlm, is also presented; it addresses the original's key shortcomings.
Reimagining Classic Strategies (Part IX): Multiple Time Frame Analysis (II)
In today's discussion, we examine the strategy of multiple time-frame analysis to learn on which time frame our AI model performs best. Our analysis leads us to conclude that the Monthly and Hourly time-frames produce models with relatively low error rates on the EURUSD pair. We used this to our advantage and created a trading algorithm that makes AI predictions on the Monthly time frame, and executes its trades on the Hourly time frame.
Neural networks made easy (Part 40): Using Go-Explore on large amounts of data
This article discusses the use of the Go-Explore algorithm over a long training period, since the random action selection strategy may not lead to a profitable pass as training time increases.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 28): GANs Revisited with a Primer on Learning Rates
The Learning Rate, is a step size towards a training target in many machine learning algorithms’ training processes. We examine the impact its many schedules and formats can have on the performance of a Generative Adversarial Network, a type of neural network that we had examined in an earlier article.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 21): Testing with Economic Calendar Data
Economic Calendar Data is not available for testing with Expert Advisors within Strategy Tester, by default. We look at how Databases could help in providing a work around this limitation. So, for this article we explore how SQLite databases can be used to archive Economic Calendar news such that wizard assembled Expert Advisors can use this to generate trade signals.
Neural Networks in Trading: Controlled Segmentation
In this article. we will discuss a method of complex multimodal interaction analysis and feature understanding.
Neural Networks in Trading: Adaptive Detection of Market Anomalies (Final Part)
We continue to build the algorithms that form the basis of the DADA framework, which is an advanced tool for detecting anomalies in time series. This approach enables effective distinguishing random fluctuations from significant deviations. Unlike classical methods, DADA dynamically adapts to different data types, choosing the optimal compression level in each specific case.
Eagle Strategy (ES)
Eagle Strategy is an algorithm that mimics the eagle's two-phase hunting strategy: global search via Levy flights using Mantegna method, alternating with intense local exploitation using the firefly algorithm, a mathematically sound approach to balancing exploration and exploitation, and a bioinspired concept that combines two natural phenomena into a single computational method.
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 97): Training Models With MSFformer
When exploring various model architecture designs, we often devote insufficient attention to the process of model training. In this article, I aim to address this gap.
Blood inheritance optimization (BIO)
I present to you my new population optimization algorithm - Blood Inheritance Optimization (BIO), inspired by the human blood group inheritance system. In this algorithm, each solution has its own "blood type" that determines the way it evolves. Just as in nature where a child's blood type is inherited according to specific rules, in BIO new solutions acquire their characteristics through a system of inheritance and mutations.
Neural Networks in Trading: Adaptive Detection of Market Anomalies (DADA)
We invite you to get acquainted with the DADA framework, which is an innovative method for detecting anomalies in time series. It helps distinguish random fluctuations from suspicious deviations. Unlike traditional methods, DADA is flexible and adapts to different data. Instead of a fixed compression level, it uses several options and chooses the most appropriate one for each case.
Neural Networks in Trading: Integrating Chaos Theory into Time Series Forecasting (Final Part)
We continue to integrate methods proposed by the authors of the Attraos framework into trading models. Let me remind you that this framework uses concepts of chaos theory to solve time series forecasting problems, interpreting them as projections of multidimensional chaotic dynamic systems.
Quantum Neural Network in MQL5 (Part III): A Virtual Quantum Processor Based on Qubits
The article focuses on creating a trading system with a real quantum simulator instead of mathematical analogies. The system uses 3 virtual qubits, quantum gates and superposition principles to analyze markets. It is implemented as a trading EA for MetaTrader 5 in MQL5. The main achievement is the transition from simulation to real quantum principles of financial information processing.
Neural Networks in Trading: Effective Feature Extraction for Accurate Classification (Mantis)
Meet Mantis — a lightweight foundation model for time series classification based on a Transformer architecture, featuring contrastive pre-training and hybrid attention that deliver record-breaking accuracy and scalability.
Neural networks made easy (Part 41): Hierarchical models
The article describes hierarchical training models that offer an effective approach to solving complex machine learning problems. Hierarchical models consist of several levels, each of which is responsible for different aspects of the task.
Neural Networks in Trading: Spatio-Temporal Neural Network (STNN)
In this article we will talk about using space-time transformations to effectively predict upcoming price movement. To improve the numerical prediction accuracy in STNN, a continuous attention mechanism is proposed that allows the model to better consider important aspects of the data.
Neural networks made easy (Part 89): Frequency Enhanced Decomposition Transformer (FEDformer)
All the models we have considered so far analyze the state of the environment as a time sequence. However, the time series can also be represented in the form of frequency features. In this article, I introduce you to an algorithm that uses frequency components of a time sequence to predict future states.
Neural networks made easy (Part 72): Trajectory prediction in noisy environments
The quality of future state predictions plays an important role in the Goal-Conditioned Predictive Coding method, which we discussed in the previous article. In this article I want to introduce you to an algorithm that can significantly improve the prediction quality in stochastic environments, such as financial markets.
Data Science and ML (Part 35): NumPy in MQL5 – The Art of Making Complex Algorithms with Less Code
NumPy library is powering almost all the machine learning algorithms to the core in Python programming language, In this article we are going to implement a similar module which has a collection of all the complex code to aid us in building sophisticated models and algorithms of any kind.
A Reinforcement Learning System for Algorithmic Trading in MQL5
The article describes the development of a multi-agent machine learning system for algorithmic trading on MetaTrader 5 based on reinforcement learning. The system has a three-tier architecture: memory neurons store experience, agents make independent decisions, and the collective mind combines them through weighted voting. The system is continuously improved through Q-learning, pruning of ineffective neurons, and evolutionary reduction of exploration.
Neural Networks in Trading: Market Analysis Using a Pattern Transformer
When we use models to analyze the market situation, we mainly focus on the candlestick. However, it has long been known that candlestick patterns can help in predicting future price movements. In this article, we will get acquainted with a method that allows us to integrate both of these approaches.
Population optimization algorithms: Evolution Strategies, (μ,λ)-ES and (μ+λ)-ES
The article considers a group of optimization algorithms known as Evolution Strategies (ES). They are among the very first population algorithms to use evolutionary principles for finding optimal solutions. We will implement changes to the conventional ES variants and revise the test function and test stand methodology for the algorithms.
Big Bang - Big Crunch (BBBC) algorithm
The article presents the Big Bang - Big Crunch method, which has two key phases: cyclic generation of random points and their compression to the optimal solution. This approach combines exploration and refinement, allowing us to gradually find better solutions and open up new optimization opportunities.
Neural networks made easy (Part 62): Using Decision Transformer in hierarchical models
In recent articles, we have seen several options for using the Decision Transformer method. The method allows analyzing not only the current state, but also the trajectory of previous states and actions performed in them. In this article, we will focus on using this method in hierarchical models.
Neural networks made easy (Part 64): ConserWeightive Behavioral Cloning (CWBC) method
As a result of tests performed in previous articles, we came to the conclusion that the optimality of the trained strategy largely depends on the training set used. In this article, we will get acquainted with a fairly simple yet effective method for selecting trajectories to train models.
Neural Networks in Trading: Superpoint Transformer (SPFormer)
In this article, we introduce a method for segmenting 3D objects based on Superpoint Transformer (SPFormer), which eliminates the need for intermediate data aggregation. This speeds up the segmentation process and improves the performance of the model.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 23): A different look at the Double Exponential Moving Average
In this article we continue with our theme in the last of tackling everyday trading indicators viewed in a ‘new’ light. We are handling horizontal composition of natural transformations for this piece and the best indicator for this, that expands on what we just covered, is the double exponential moving average (DEMA).
Chaos Game Optimization (CGO)
The article presents a new metaheuristic algorithm, Chaos Game Optimization (CGO), which demonstrates a unique ability to maintain high efficiency when dealing with high-dimensional problems. Unlike most optimization algorithms, CGO not only does not lose, but sometimes even increases performance when scaling a problem, which is its key feature.
Data Science and ML (Part 39): News + Artificial Intelligence, Would You Bet on it?
News drives the financial markets, especially major releases like Non-Farm Payrolls (NFPs). We've all witnessed how a single headline can trigger sharp price movements. In this article, we dive into the powerful intersection of news data and Artificial Intelligence.
Population optimization algorithms: Simulated Annealing (SA) algorithm. Part I
The Simulated Annealing algorithm is a metaheuristic inspired by the metal annealing process. In the article, we will conduct a thorough analysis of the algorithm and debunk a number of common beliefs and myths surrounding this widely known optimization method. The second part of the article will consider the custom Simulated Isotropic Annealing (SIA) algorithm.
Neural Network in Practice: Pseudoinverse (I)
Today we will begin to consider how to implement the calculation of pseudo-inverse in pure MQL5 language. The code we are going to look at will be much more complex for beginners than I expected, and I'm still figuring out how to explain it in a simple way. So for now, consider this an opportunity to learn some unusual code. Calmly and attentively. Although it is not aimed at efficient or quick application, its goal is to be as didactic as possible.
Comet Tail Algorithm (CTA)
In this article, we will look at the Comet Tail Optimization Algorithm (CTA), which draws inspiration from unique space objects - comets and their impressive tails that form when approaching the Sun. The algorithm is based on the concept of the motion of comets and their tails, and is designed to find optimal solutions in optimization problems.
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 91): Frequency Domain Forecasting (FreDF)
We continue to explore the analysis and forecasting of time series in the frequency domain. In this article, we will get acquainted with a new method to forecast data in the frequency domain, which can be added to many of the algorithms we have studied previously.
Coral Reefs Optimization (CRO)
The article presents a comprehensive analysis of the Coral Reef Optimization (CRO) algorithm, a metaheuristic method inspired by the biological processes of coral reef formation and development. The algorithm models key aspects of coral evolution: broadcast spawning, brooding, larval settlement, asexual reproduction, and competition for limited reef space. Particular attention is paid to the improved version of the algorithm.
Feature Engineering With Python And MQL5 (Part II): Angle Of Price
There are many posts in the MQL5 Forum asking for help calculating the slope of price changes. This article will demonstrate one possible way of calculating the angle formed by the changes in price in any market you wish to trade. Additionally, we will answer if engineering this new feature is worth the extra effort and time invested. We will explore if the slope of the price can improve any of our AI model's accuracy when forecasting the USDZAR pair on the M1.