Articles on machine learning in trading
Creating AI-based trading robots: native integration with Python, matrices and vectors, math and statistics libraries and much more.
Find out how to use machine learning in trading. Neurons, perceptrons, convolutional and recurrent networks, predictive models — start with the basics and work your way up to developing your own AI. You will learn how to train and apply neural networks for algorithmic trading in financial markets.
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MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 55): SAC with Prioritized Experience Replay
Replay buffers in Reinforcement Learning are particularly important with off-policy algorithms like DQN or SAC. This then puts the spotlight on the sampling process of this memory-buffer. While default options with SAC, for instance, use random selection from this buffer, Prioritized Experience Replay buffers fine tune this by sampling from the buffer based on a TD-score. We review the importance of Reinforcement Learning, and, as always, examine just this hypothesis (not the cross-validation) in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Animal Migration Optimization (AMO) algorithm
The article is devoted to the AMO algorithm, which models the seasonal migration of animals in search of optimal conditions for life and reproduction. The main features of AMO include the use of topological neighborhood and a probabilistic update mechanism, which makes it easy to implement and flexible for various optimization tasks.
Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) algorithm (Part I): Process chemistry in optimization
In the first part of this article, we will dive into the world of chemical reactions and discover a new approach to optimization! Chemical reaction optimization (CRO) uses principles derived from the laws of thermodynamics to achieve efficient results. We will reveal the secrets of decomposition, synthesis and other chemical processes that became the basis of this innovative method.
Economic forecasts: Exploring the Python potential
How to use World Bank economic data for forecasts? What happens when you combine AI models and economics?
Population optimization algorithms: Spiral Dynamics Optimization (SDO) algorithm
The article presents an optimization algorithm based on the patterns of constructing spiral trajectories in nature, such as mollusk shells - the spiral dynamics optimization (SDO) algorithm. I have thoroughly revised and modified the algorithm proposed by the authors. The article will consider the necessity of these changes.
Spurious Regressions in Python
Spurious regressions occur when two time series exhibit a high degree of correlation purely by chance, leading to misleading results in regression analysis. In such cases, even though variables may appear to be related, the correlation is coincidental and the model may be unreliable.
Category Theory in MQL5 (Part 12): Orders
This article which is part of a series that follows Category Theory implementation of Graphs in MQL5, delves in Orders. We examine how concepts of Order-Theory can support monoid sets in informing trade decisions by considering two major ordering types.
Hybridization of population algorithms. Sequential and parallel structures
Here we will dive into the world of hybridization of optimization algorithms by looking at three key types: strategy mixing, sequential and parallel hybridization. We will conduct a series of experiments combining and testing relevant optimization algorithms.
Mastering Model Interpretation: Gaining Deeper Insight From Your Machine Learning Models
Machine Learning is a complex and rewarding field for anyone of any experience. In this article we dive deep into the inner mechanisms powering the models you build, we explore the intricate world of features,predictions and impactful decisions unravelling the complexities and gaining a firm grasp of model interpretation. Learn the art of navigating tradeoffs , enhancing predictions, ranking feature importance all while ensuring robust decision making. This essential read helps you clock more performance from your machine learning models and extract more value for employing machine learning methodologies.
Neural Networks in Trading: Generalized 3D Referring Expression Segmentation
While analyzing the market situation, we divide it into separate segments, identifying key trends. However, traditional analysis methods often focus on one aspect and thus limit the proper perception. In this article, we will learn about a method that enables the selection of multiple objects to ensure a more comprehensive and multi-layered understanding of the situation.
Ensemble methods to enhance numerical predictions in MQL5
In this article, we present the implementation of several ensemble learning methods in MQL5 and examine their effectiveness across different scenarios.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques You Should Know (Part 15): Support Vector Machines with Newton's Polynomial
Support Vector Machines classify data based on predefined classes by exploring the effects of increasing its dimensionality. It is a supervised learning method that is fairly complex given its potential to deal with multi-dimensioned data. For this article we consider how it’s very basic implementation of 2-dimensioned data can be done more efficiently with Newton’s Polynomial when classifying price-action.
Self Optimizing Expert Advisor With MQL5 And Python (Part VI): Taking Advantage of Deep Double Descent
Traditional machine learning teaches practitioners to be vigilant not to overfit their models. However, this ideology is being challenged by new insights published by diligent researches from Harvard, who have discovered that what appears to be overfitting may in some circumstances be the results of terminating your training procedures prematurely. We will demonstrate how we can use the ideas published in the research paper, to improve our use of AI in forecasting market returns.
Neural Networks Made Easy (Part 90): Frequency Interpolation of Time Series (FITS)
By studying the FEDformer method, we opened the door to the frequency domain of time series representation. In this new article, we will continue the topic we started. We will consider a method with which we can not only conduct an analysis, but also predict subsequent states in a particular area.
Forecasting exchange rates using classic machine learning methods: Logit and Probit models
In the article, an attempt is made to build a trading EA for predicting exchange rate quotes. The algorithm is based on classical classification models - logistic and probit regression. The likelihood ratio criterion is used as a filter for trading signals.
Ordinal Encoding for Nominal Variables
In this article, we discuss and demonstrate how to convert nominal predictors into numerical formats that are suitable for machine learning algorithms, using both Python and MQL5.
Neural Network in Practice: Least Squares
In this article, we'll look at a few ideas, including how mathematical formulas are more complex in appearance than when implemented in code. In addition, we will consider how to set up a chart quadrant, as well as one interesting problem that may arise in your MQL5 code. Although, to be honest, I still don't quite understand how to explain it. Anyway, I'll show you how to fix it in code.
An introduction to Receiver Operating Characteristic curves
ROC curves are graphical representations used to evaluate the performance of classifiers. Despite ROC graphs being relatively straightforward, there exist common misconceptions and pitfalls when using them in practice. This article aims to provide an introduction to ROC graphs as a tool for practitioners seeking to understand classifier performance evaluation.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 45): Reinforcement Learning with Monte-Carlo
Monte-Carlo is the fourth different algorithm in reinforcement learning that we are considering with the aim of exploring its implementation in wizard assembled Expert Advisors. Though anchored in random sampling, it does present vast ways of simulation which we can look to exploit.
Data Science and ML (Part 36): Dealing with Biased Financial Markets
Financial markets are not perfectly balanced. Some markets are bullish, some are bearish, and some exhibit some ranging behaviors indicating uncertainty in either direction, this unbalanced information when used to train machine learning models can be misleading as the markets change frequently. In this article, we are going to discuss several ways to tackle this issue.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 47): Reinforcement Learning with Temporal Difference
Temporal Difference is another algorithm in reinforcement learning that updates Q-Values basing on the difference between predicted and actual rewards during agent training. It specifically dwells on updating Q-Values without minding their state-action pairing. We therefore look to see how to apply this, as we have with previous articles, in a wizard assembled Expert Advisor.
Applying Localized Feature Selection in Python and MQL5
This article explores a feature selection algorithm introduced in the paper 'Local Feature Selection for Data Classification' by Narges Armanfard et al. The algorithm is implemented in Python to build binary classifier models that can be integrated with MetaTrader 5 applications for inference.
Neural Networks in Trading: Models Using Wavelet Transform and Multi-Task Attention
We invite you to explore a framework that combines wavelet transforms and a multi-task self-attention model, aimed at improving the responsiveness and accuracy of forecasting in volatile market conditions. The wavelet transform allows asset returns to be decomposed into high and low frequencies, carefully capturing long-term market trends and short-term fluctuations.
Brain Storm Optimization algorithm (Part I): Clustering
In this article, we will look at an innovative optimization method called BSO (Brain Storm Optimization) inspired by a natural phenomenon called "brainstorming". We will also discuss a new approach to solving multimodal optimization problems the BSO method applies. It allows finding multiple optimal solutions without the need to pre-determine the number of subpopulations. We will also consider the K-Means and K-Means++ clustering methods.
Analyzing weather impact on currencies of agricultural countries using Python
What is the relationship between weather and Forex? Classical economic theory has long ignored the influence of such factors as weather on market behavior. But everything has changed. Let's try to find connections between the weather conditions and the position of agricultural currencies on the market.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (14): Multi Objective Timeseries Forecasting with STF
Spatial Temporal Fusion which is using both ‘space’ and time metrics in modelling data is primarily useful in remote-sensing, and a host of other visual based activities in gaining a better understanding of our surroundings. Thanks to a published paper, we take a novel approach in using it by examining its potential to traders.
Neural Networks in Trading: A Hybrid Trading Framework with Predictive Coding (Final Part)
We continue our examination of the StockFormer hybrid trading system, which combines predictive coding and reinforcement learning algorithms for financial time series analysis. The system is based on three Transformer branches with a Diversified Multi-Head Attention (DMH-Attn) mechanism that enables the capturing of complex patterns and interdependencies between assets. Previously, we got acquainted with the theoretical aspects of the framework and implemented the DMH-Attn mechanisms. Today, we will talk about the model architecture and training.
Overcoming The Limitation of Machine Learning (Part 2): Lack of Reproducibility
The article explores why trading results can differ significantly between brokers, even when using the same strategy and financial symbol, due to decentralized pricing and data discrepancies. The piece helps MQL5 developers understand why their products may receive mixed reviews on the MQL5 Marketplace, and urges developers to tailor their approaches to specific brokers to ensure transparent and reproducible outcomes. This could grow to become an important domain-bound best practice that will serve our community well if the practice were to be widely adopted.
African Buffalo Optimization (ABO)
The article presents the African Buffalo Optimization (ABO) algorithm, a metaheuristic approach developed in 2015 based on the unique behavior of these animals. The article describes in detail the stages of the algorithm implementation and its efficiency in finding solutions to complex problems, which makes it a valuable tool in the field of optimization.
Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs) for Synthetic Data in Financial Modeling (Part 2): Creating Synthetic Symbol for Testing
In this article we are creating a synthetic symbol using a Generative Adversarial Network (GAN) involves generating realistic Financial data that mimics the behavior of actual market instruments, such as EURUSD. The GAN model learns patterns and volatility from historical market data and creates synthetic price data with similar characteristics.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 68): Using Patterns of TRIX and the Williams Percent Range with a Cosine Kernel Network
We follow up our last article, where we introduced the indicator pair of TRIX and Williams Percent Range, by considering how this indicator pairing could be extended with Machine Learning. TRIX and William’s Percent are a trend and support/ resistance complimentary pairing. Our machine learning approach uses a convolution neural network that engages the cosine kernel in its architecture when fine-tuning the forecasts of this indicator pairing. As always, this is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.
Biological neuron for forecasting financial time series
We will build a biologically correct system of neurons for time series forecasting. The introduction of a plasma-like environment into the neural network architecture creates a kind of "collective intelligence," where each neuron influences the system's operation not only through direct connections, but also through long-range electromagnetic interactions. Let's see how the neural brain modeling system will perform in the market.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 70): Using Patterns of SAR and the RVI with a Exponential Kernel Network
We follow up our last article, where we introduced the indicator pair of the SAR and the RVI, by considering how this indicator pairing could be extended with Machine Learning. SAR and RVI are a trend and momentum complimentary pairing. Our machine learning approach uses a convolution neural network that engages the Exponential kernel in sizing its kernels and channels, when fine-tuning the forecasts of this indicator pairing. As always, this is done in a custom signal class file that works with the MQL5 wizard to assemble an Expert Advisor.
Mutual information as criteria for Stepwise Feature Selection
In this article, we present an MQL5 implementation of Stepwise Feature Selection based on the mutual information between an optimal predictor set and a target variable.
Population optimization algorithms: Evolution of Social Groups (ESG)
We will consider the principle of constructing multi-population algorithms. As an example of this type of algorithm, we will have a look at the new custom algorithm - Evolution of Social Groups (ESG). We will analyze the basic concepts, population interaction mechanisms and advantages of this algorithm, as well as examine its performance in optimization problems.
Population optimization algorithms: Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA)
Whale Optimization Algorithm (WOA) is a metaheuristic algorithm inspired by the behavior and hunting strategies of humpback whales. The main idea of WOA is to mimic the so-called "bubble-net" feeding method, in which whales create bubbles around prey and then attack it in a spiral motion.
MQL5 Wizard Techniques you should know (Part 82): Using Patterns of TRIX and the WPR with DQN Reinforcement Learning
In the last article, we examined the pairing of Ichimoku and the ADX under an Inference Learning framework. For this piece we revisit, Reinforcement Learning when used with an indicator pairing we considered last in ‘Part 68’. The TRIX and Williams Percent Range. Our algorithm for this review will be the Quantile Regression DQN. As usual, we present this as a custom signal class designed for implementation with the MQL5 Wizard.
Role of random number generator quality in the efficiency of optimization algorithms
In this article, we will look at the Mersenne Twister random number generator and compare it with the standard one in MQL5. We will also find out the influence of the random number generator quality on the results of optimization algorithms.
Population optimization algorithms: Charged System Search (CSS) algorithm
In this article, we will consider another optimization algorithm inspired by inanimate nature - Charged System Search (CSS) algorithm. The purpose of this article is to present a new optimization algorithm based on the principles of physics and mechanics.
Population optimization algorithms: Artificial Multi-Social Search Objects (MSO)
This is a continuation of the previous article considering the idea of social groups. The article explores the evolution of social groups using movement and memory algorithms. The results will help to understand the evolution of social systems and apply them in optimization and search for solutions.