Articles on machine learning in trading

In the ever-changing world of trading, adapting to market shifts is not just a choice—it's a necessity. New patterns and trends emerge everyday, making it harder even the most advanced machine learning models to stay effective in the face of evolving conditions. In this article, we’ll explore how to keep your models relevant and responsive to new market data by automatically retraining.

The article presents a new metaheuristic method based on a fractal approach to partitioning the search space for solving optimization problems. The algorithm sequentially identifies and separates promising areas, creating a self-similar fractal structure that concentrates computing resources on the most promising areas. A unique mutation mechanism aimed at better solutions ensures an optimal balance between exploration and exploitation of the search space, significantly increasing the efficiency of the algorithm.

We continue the discussion about the use of piecewise linear representation of time series, which was started in the previous article. Today we will see how to combine this method with other approaches to time series analysis to improve the price trend prediction quality.

In this article, we will look at the binary genetic algorithm (BGA), which models the natural processes that occur in the genetic material of living things in nature.

The last two articles were devoted to the Decision Transformer method, which models action sequences in the context of an autoregressive model of desired rewards. In this article, we will look at another optimization algorithm for this method.

We will look at price discretization methods using Python + MQL5. In this article, I will share my practical experience developing a Python library that implements a wide range of approaches to bar formation — from classic Volume and Range bars to more exotic methods like Renko and Kagi. We will consider three-line breakout candles and range bars analyzing their statistics and trying to define how else the prices can be represented discretely.

I invite you to explore the MacroHFT framework, which applies context-aware reinforcement learning and memory to improve high-frequency cryptocurrency trading decisions using macroeconomic data and adaptive agents.

The AI breakthroughs dominating headlines, from ChatGPT to self-driving cars, aren’t built from isolated models but through cumulative knowledge transferred from various models or common fields. Now, this same "learn once, apply everywhere" approach can be applied to help us transform our AI models in algorithmic trading. In this article, we are going to learn how we can leverage the information gained across various instruments to help in improving predictions on others using transfer learning.

Clustering algorithms in machine learning are important unsupervised learning algorithms that can divide the original data into groups with similar observations. By using these groups, you can analyze the market for a specific cluster, search for the most stable clusters using new data, and make causal inferences. The article proposes an original method for time series clustering in Python.

The Black Hole Algorithm (BHA) uses the principles of black hole gravity to optimize solutions. In this article, we will look at how BHA attracts the best solutions while avoiding local extremes, and why this algorithm has become a powerful tool for solving complex problems. Learn how simple ideas can lead to impressive results in the world of optimization.

Since the first articles devoted to reinforcement learning, we have in one way or another touched upon 2 problems: exploring the environment and determining the reward function. Recent articles have been devoted to the problem of exploration in offline learning. In this article, I would like to introduce you to an algorithm whose authors completely eliminated the reward function.

We continue studying the environment in reinforcement learning models. And in this article we will look at another algorithm – Go-Explore, which allows you to effectively explore the environment at the model training stage.

What is angular analysis of financial markets? How to use price action angles and machine learning to make accurate forecasts with 67% accuracy? How to combine a regression and classification model with angular features and obtain a working algorithm? What does Gann have to do with it? Why are price movement angles a good indicator for machine learning?

This article presents a study of the interaction of different activation functions with optimization algorithms in the context of neural network training. Particular attention is paid to the comparison of the classical ADAM and its population version when working with a wide range of activation functions, including the oscillating ACON and Snake functions. Using a minimalistic MLP (1-1-1) architecture and a single training example, the influence of activation functions on the optimization is isolated from other factors. The article proposes an approach to manage network weights through the boundaries of activation functions and a weight reflection mechanism, which allows avoiding problems with saturation and stagnation in training.

Mining central bank balance sheet data provides a picture of global liquidity in the Forex market and key currencies. We combine data from the Fed, ECB, BOJ and PBoC into a composite index and use machine learning to uncover hidden patterns. This approach turns raw data into real trading signals by combining fundamental and technical analysis.

This is a unique optimization algorithm inspired by the evolution of the turtle shell. The TSEA algorithm emulates the gradual formation of keratinized skin areas, which represent optimal solutions to a problem. The best solutions become "harder" and are located closer to the outer surface, while the less successful solutions remain "softer" and are located inside. The algorithm uses clustering of solutions by quality and distance, allowing to preserve less successful options and providing flexibility and adaptability.

The EURUSD forecasting system with the use of computer vision and deep learning. Learn how convolutional neural networks can recognize complex price patterns in the foreign exchange market and predict exchange rate movements with up to 54% accuracy. The article shares the methodology for creating an algorithm that uses artificial intelligence technologies for visual analysis of charts instead of traditional technical indicators. The author demonstrates the process of transforming price data into "images", their processing by a neural network, and a unique opportunity to peer into the "consciousness" of AI through activation maps and attention heatmaps. Practical Python code using the MetaTrader 5 library allows readers to reproduce the system and apply it in their own trading.

Understanding agent behavior is important in many different areas, but most methods focus on just one of the tasks (understanding, noise removal, or prediction), which reduces their effectiveness in real-world scenarios. In this article, we will get acquainted with a model that can adapt to solving various problems.

This article discusses an approach to trading only in the chosen direction (buy or sell). For this purpose, the technique of causal inference and machine learning are used.

Uncover the secrets behind these powerful dimensionality reduction techniques as we dissect their applications within the MQL5 trading environment. Delve into the nuances of Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA), gaining a profound understanding of their impact on strategy development and market analysis.

The article takes a detailed look at the archery-inspired optimization algorithm, with an emphasis on using the roulette method as a mechanism for selecting promising areas for "arrows". The method allows evaluating the quality of solutions and selecting the most promising positions for further study.

Lightweight time series forecasting models achieve high performance using a minimum number of parameters. This, in turn, reduces the consumption of computing resources and speeds up decision-making. Despite being lightweight, such models achieve forecast quality comparable to more complex ones.

In this article, we will have a look at yet another reinforcement learning approach. It is called goal-conditioned reinforcement learning (GCRL). In this approach, an agent is trained to achieve different goals in specific scenarios.

Principal Component Analysis, a dimensionality reducing technique in data analysis, is looked at in this article, with how it could be implemented with Eigen values and vectors. As always, we aim to develop a prototype expert-signal-class usable in the MQL5 wizard.

N-BEATS is a revolutionary deep learning model designed for time series forecasting. It was released to surpass classical models for time series forecasting such as ARIMA, PROPHET, VAR, etc. In this article, we are going to discuss this model and use it in predicting the stock market.

The article presents an artificial electric field algorithm (AEFA) inspired by Coulomb's law of electrostatic force. The algorithm simulates electrical phenomena to solve complex optimization problems using charged particles and their interactions. AEFA exhibits unique properties in the context of other algorithms related to laws of nature.

In this series of articles, we revisit classical strategies to see if we can improve the strategy using AI. In today's article, we will examine a popular strategy of multiple symbol analysis using a basket of correlated securities, we will focus on the exotic USDZAR currency pair.

Tired of watching progress bars instead of testing trading strategies? Traditional caching fails financial ML, leaving you with lost computations and frustrating restarts. We've engineered a sophisticated caching architecture that understands the unique challenges of financial data—temporal dependencies, complex data structures, and the constant threat of look-ahead bias. Our three-layer system delivers dramatic speed improvements while automatically invalidating stale results and preventing costly data leaks. Stop waiting for computations and start iterating at the pace the markets demand.

In this article, I propose to look at the issue of building a trading strategy from a different angle. We will not predict future price movements, but will try to build a trading system based on the analysis of historical data.

Category Theory is a diverse and expanding branch of Mathematics which is only recently getting some coverage in the MQL5 community. These series of articles look to explore and examine some of its concepts & axioms with the overall goal of establishing an open library that provides insight while also hopefully furthering the use of this remarkable field in Traders' strategy development.