Forecast and levels for JPY - page 10

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.05.23 09:56

USD/JPY - daily bullish; 111.39 resistance is the key (based on the article)

USD/JPY chart by MT5

  • "The Japanese Yen is staging a very modest fightback against the US Dollar after weeks of unrelenting bullishness towards the greenback. USD/JPY seems tentatively to have made some kind of top at last Monday’s intraday high. That came in at 111.39. The US Dollar has been declining since, part of a broad based retracement which has seen it lower against the New Zealand and Australian Dollars too, even if the Euro remains under a bit of pressure thanks to political worries in Italy."
  • "Still, it may not make sense to bet on a comprehensive turnaround in US Dollar sentiment just yet. USD/JPY's retracement has been quite modest and for the moment at least seems limited to a support zone derived from the previous significant peaks, which were made in early February."

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread 

After


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.01 07:12

USD/JPY - daily bullish ranging near the bearish reversal (based on the article)

USDJPY chart by Metatrader 5

  • "USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 52.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.08 to 1. In fact, traders have remained net-long since May 23 when USDJPY traded near 109.258; price has moved 0.5% lower since then. The number of traders net-long is 2.3% lower than yesterday and 7.0% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 18.9% higher than yesterday and 6.8% higher from last week. "
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is less net-long than yesterday but more net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.13 08:25

USD/JPY: daily bullish breakout; possible weekly reversal (based on the article)

USD/JPY weekly chart by Brainwashing system, MT5

  • "USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 53.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders long to short at 1.13 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 3.9% higher than yesterday and 4.1% lower from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 3.1% lower than yesterday and 7.6% higher from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-long suggests USDJPY prices may continue to fall. Positioning is more net-long than yesterday but less net-long from last week. The combination of current sentiment and recent changes gives us a further mixed USDJPY trading bias."

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The chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.06.27 08:23

USD/JPY - daily ranging near bearish rebersal (based on the article)

USD/JPY daily Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "USDJPY: Retail trader data shows 50.0% of traders are net-long with the ratio of traders short to long at 1.0 to 1. The number of traders net-long is 0.5% lower than yesterday and 5.6% higher from last week, while the number of traders net-short is 5.6% lower than yesterday and 6.8% lower from last week."
  • "We typically take a contrarian view to crowd sentiment, and the fact traders are net-short suggests USDJPY prices may continue to rise. Yet traders are less net-short than yesterday and compared with last week. Recent changes in sentiment warn that the current USDJPY price trend may soon reverse lower despite the fact traders remain net-short."

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The chart was made on daily timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 

USD/JPY: range price movement by Non-Farm Payrolls news event 

USD/JPY chart by Metatrader 5

 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.07.12 11:17

USD/JPY - daily bullish breakout (based on the article) 

USD/JPY chart by Metatrader 5

  • "Despite persistent media fears about a trade war being the death of the global economy, spot and option trades around USD/JPY are seeing blue (or green) skis ahead. The Yen, typically a barometer of risk sentiment and seen as a bit of a haven asset, continues to weaken and fell to the lowest levels against the USD on Wednesday since early January. In alignment with a higher spot USDJPY was the US Treasury 2-year yields. The US PPI final figures showed the highest demand since 2011."
  • "FX traders tend to become accustomed to looking at JPY crosses the first time anything seen as negative emerges in the media. Therefore, when news emerged about the initiation of a Trade War as US President Trump began tariffs on China, the initial thought was likely that USD/JPY was going to respond by falling from Trendline resistance. However, the Japan economy is undoubtedly an export economy. A key part of Abenomics was to encourage inflation through increased business activity that was helped by a weak though this was not outright stated."
  • "The problem, as outline by Vincent Cignarella of Bloomberg is that the two largest customers of Japan's goods are the two countries taking the headlines as the key players in the trade war. At the same time, yen strength has been absent and likely for good reason."

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with the following custom indicators:


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.01 09:24

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY and GOLD: CB Consumer Confidence

2018-07-31 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

  • past data is 127.1
  • forecast data is 126.5
  • actual data is 127.4 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

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From official report :

  • "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® increased marginally in July, following a modest decline in June. The Index now stands at 127.4 (1985=100), up from 127.1 in June. The Present Situation Index improved from 161.7 to 165.9, while the Expectations Index declined from 104.0 last month to 101.7 this month."

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Dollar Index (DXY) M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

Dollar Index (DXY) chart by Metatrader 5

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USD/JPY M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

USD/JPY chart by Metatrader 5

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XAU/USD M30: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

GOLD (XAU/USD) chart by Metatrader 5

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The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5


 

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Sergey Golubev, 2018.08.24 16:33

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index (DXY), USD/JPY and USD/CNH: United States Durable Goods Orders

2018-08-24 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

  • past data is 0.8%
  • forecast data is -0.7%
  • actual data is -1.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

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From thestandard article :

  • "Orders for long-lasting U.S. factory goods fell by 1.7 percent in July, the third decrease in the past four months. The Commerce Department said today that durable goods orders _ items meant to last at least three years such as autos and appliances _ totaled US$246.9 billion last month. Much of that decline came from a steep 35.4 percent drop in orders for non-defense aircraft, a volatile category on a monthly basis."

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Dollar Index (DXY) M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

Dollar Index (DXY) by Metatrader 5

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/JPY by Metatrader 5

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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

USD/CNH by Metatrader 5

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

Same system for MT4:

  1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
  2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
  3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
  4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

 

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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2018.09.26 10:34

USD/JPY - Reversal to the Long-Term Bullish; 113.38 is the key (based on the article) 

Monthly price is on bullish breakout started: the price is breaking Senkou Span line to above to be reversed to the primary bullish market condition. 
if the price breaks 113.38 resistance level on close MN bar so the long-term bullish trend to be started, otherwise - ranging inside Ichimoku cloud waiting for direction.

USD/JPY monthly Ichimoku chart by Metatrader 5

  • "A bullish bias remains after USD/JPY broke above a three-year trendline and continues to trade strongly in a supportive market. Supportive forces include Japanese equities via the Nikkei 225 that is testing 2018 highs (just like USD/JPY,) alongside the highly correlated (40-day rolling at +0.8921) US Treasury 2yr yield that has risen from 2.58 in mid-August when USDJPY traded at 109.97 to 2.839 today, which is a rise of 25.4bps or 9.8% as the Fed is expected to be more hawkish on an overheating US Economy."
  • "Traders should also note the atrocious bid-to-cover ratio on Monday's US Treasury 2yr auction. The bid/cover of 2.44 was at the lowest percentile of the last 12 auctions. Such a weak bid-to-cover signals weak demand for front-end US Treasuries that could mean the yield is likely to move higher, and could take USD/JPY higher with it."

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The chart was made on weekly timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:


 
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