Forecast and levels for GOLD (XAU/USD) - page 13

[fxstrategist007]

No clear trend on gold, really. Price is just oscillating around the 1500 level from where it may head in any direction, eventhough the bullish trend is still in place in the midterm.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.15 15:32

Intra-Day Fundamentals - Dollar Index, USD/JPY, GOLD (XAU/USD) and Dax Index: United States Advance Retail Sales

2019-11-15 13:30 GMT | [USD - Retail Sales]

• past data is -0.3%
• forecast data is 0.3%
• actual data is 0.3% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Retail Sales] = Change in the total value of sales at the retail level.

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From marketwatch article :

• "Retail sales increased 0.3% last month, the government said Friday, matching the forecast of economists polled by MarketWatch. The increase in sales was concentrated in just a few segments, however. If autos and gasoline are excluded, sales rose a scant 0.1%, with almost all of that gain coming from internet retailers."

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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XAU/USD: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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Dax Index: range price movement by United States Advance Retail Sales news events

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.11.27 15:04

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): Unites States Durable Goods Orders

2019-11-27 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -1.2%
• forecast data is 0.0%
• actual data is 0.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From cnbc article :

• "Orders to U.S. factories for big-ticket manufactured goods rebounded last month on a surge in demand for military aircraft. The Commerce Department says orders for durable goods — which are meant to last at least three years — rose 0.6% in October after dropping 1.4% in September. Orders for military aircraft soared 18.1%. Excluding defense, durable goods orders blipped up 0.1%."

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

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Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2019.12.06 08:22

What To Expect From The November Jobs Report (based on the article)

• "The U.S. economy added a much better than expected 128,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate at 3.6%—near a 50-year low. But some of the recent jobs data has been confusing, CNBC points out: The latest weekly unemployment claims dropped to a seven-month low, even as recent ADP data showed private sector jobs in November grew at the slowest rate—by just 67,000—in six months."

GOLD (XAU/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

• "The U.S. economy added a much better than expected 128,000 jobs in October, with the unemployment rate at 3.6%—near a 50-year low. But some of the recent jobs data has been confusing, CNBC points out: The latest weekly unemployment claims dropped to a seven-month low, even as recent ADP data showed private sector jobs in November grew at the slowest rate—by just 67,000—in six months".
• "November will likely see solid job growth, with economists polled by Dow Jones forecasting 187,000 jobs added last month—one of the highest preliminary estimates this year, thanks to a temporary boost from General Motors autoworkers, who returned to work after weeks of striking for better wages".
• "The consensus on the unemployment rate is that it will remain unchanged from last month, hovering at 3.6%".
• "While the official consensus is around 180,000 jobs added, we’ll likely see tempered expectations going into tomorrow’s numbers,” predicts Mark Freeman, chief investment officer at Socorro Asset Management".

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[fxstrategist007]

Gold has been on a slight bearish channel, but it has found a support around the 1.450 level. A very good alternate support could be the 1.400 level where we can find the 55 week EMA. Its most relevant resistance is at the 1.555 level.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.10 15:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - GBP/USD, USD/JPY and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-01-10 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 256K
• forecast data is 162K
• actual data is 145K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 145,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 3.5 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in retail trade and health care, while mining lost jobs."

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GBP/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/JPY: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.01.28 15:00

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY, Dollar Index (DXY) and GOLD (XAU/USD): Unites States Durable Goods Orders

2020-01-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - Durable Goods Orders]

• past data is -2.1%
• forecast data is 0.5%
• actual data is 2.4% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Durable Goods Orders] = Change in the total value of new purchase orders placed with manufacturers for durable goods.

==========

From fxstreet article :

• "Durable Goods Orders in the United States rose 2.4% on a monthly basis in December following November's decline of 3.1% (revised from 2%), the data published by the US Census Bureau showed on Tuesday. This reading came in better than the market expectation for an increase of 0.5%."

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

Dollar Index (DXY): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Durable Goods Orders news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.07 15:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-02-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 147K
• forecast data is 163K
• actual data is 225K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 225,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in construction, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.25 17:26

Intra-Day Fundamentals - AUD/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): CB Consumer Confidence

2020-02-25 15:00 GMT | [USD - CB Consumer Confidence]

• past data is 130.4
• forecast data is 132.6
• actual data is 130.7 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - CB Consumer Confidence] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed households.

==========

From official report :

• "The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index® improved slightly in February, following an increase in January. The Index now stands at 130.7 (1985=100), up from 130.4 in January. The Present Situation Index – based on consumers’ assessment of current business and labor market conditions – decreased from 173.9 to 165.1. However, the Expectations Index – based on consumers’ short-term outlook for income, business and labor market conditions – increased from 101.4 last month to 107.8 this month." 
• "Consumer confidence improved slightly in February, following an increase in January," said Lynn Franco, Senior Director of Economic Indicators. "Despite the decline in the Present Situation Index, consumers continue to view current conditions quite favorably. Consumers’ short-term expectations improved, and when coupled with solid employment growth, should be enough to continue to support spending and economic growth in the near term."
  

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AUD/USD: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by CB Consumer Confidence news events

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[fxstrategist007]

There is a lot of volatility on gold, but the price consolidates around the 1650 level, from where it could head in any direction, really.