Forecast and levels for JPY - page 7

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  
Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.12.19 16:06

Intra-Day Fundamentals - USD/JPY and USD/CAD: Residential Building Permits

2017-12-19 13:30 GMT | [USD - Building Permits]

  • past data is 1.32M
  • forecast data is 1.27M
  • actual data 1.30M according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Building Permits] = Annualized number of new residential building permits issued during the previous month.

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From wsj article :

  • "Housing starts rose 3.3% in November from the prior month to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 1.297 million, the Commerce Department said Tuesday. Residential building permits, which can signal how much construction is in the pipeline, fell 1.4% to an annual pace of 1.298 million last month."
  • "Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal had expected a 3.1% decrease for starts and a 2.3% decline for permits."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events


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USD/CAD M5: range price movement by U.S. Building Permits news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.05 17:03

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and Dollar Index: Non-Farm Employment Change

2018-01-05 13:30 GMT | [USD - Nonfarm Payrolls]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

USD - Nonfarm Payrolls] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

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From official report :

  • "Total nonfarm payroll employment increased by 148,000 in December, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.1 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Employment gains occurred in health care, construction, and manufacturing."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events


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Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase:

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.10 07:36

USD/JPY - possible daily breakdown with the bearish reversal (based on the article)

Daily price is on testing the support level at 112.17/112.05 to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition. Chinkou Spam line is breaking the historical price to below for the possible beakdown to be started, and Trend Strength indicator is estimating the trend as the downtrend in the near future.


  • "Traders around the world on Tuesday woke up to a surprise BoJ development that may seem small on absolute terms, but could lead to a broader shift in their Quantitative & Qualitative Easing Program (QQE.). The Bank of Japan’s surprise statement that they will not buy as many long-end bonds as they had been caused investors to be cautious on US notes too. The action sent the US 10Yr note (IG CFD: US 10-Year T-Note) yield to a nine-month high at 2.53% as the inversely related price fell to a nine-month low."
  • "The Japanese Yen, which has been the last currency whose central bank in the G4 is limiting discussions on when they will remove their easing program to support the economy notified markets that they were reducing their purchases of super-long bonds, which caused rate prices to drop and yields to jump. This may be a far cry from a taper announcement, but given that the bond bull market has been supported by fewer central bank buyers, another central bank pulling back could be cause for natural concern."

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The chart was made on D1 timeframe with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.16 08:18

USD/JPY - intra-day strong bearish trend; 110.32 support is the key (based on the article)

Intra-day price on H4 chart is far below 100-SMA/200-SMA bearish/bullish reversal levels: the price is on bearish market condition for 110.32 support level to be testing for the primary bearish trend to be continuing.


  • "The Japanese Yen has posted strong gains against the US Dollar in the past week, taking USD/JPY back to lows not seen since mid-September last year.
    The fundamental justification for these moves is clear enough. The greenback has been under general pressure thanks to increasing market certainty that other developed markets will see tighter monetary policy in due course, crowding a field which for much of last year belonged solely to the US Federal Reserve. The Eurozone is held to be the most obvious candidate as stronger economic data see bets rise that stimulus withdrawal will accelerate."
  • "The Yen has had a specific, domestic driver, too, even if its rationality is open to question. The Bank of Japan trimmed ever so slightly the amount bought at its regular bond-market operations last week. This was seen by the market as a sign that even Japan’s extraordinary accommodative monetary policy could be tightened and the Yen duly rose. Now the Bank of Japan has effectively denied the markets’ implicit charge since. It has stuck to its ancient line that all current settings will remain in place until inflation rises sustainably. But the Yen has not weakened, suggesting perhaps that the markets do not wholly buy this line."

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The chart was made on H4 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 4 except the following indicators (free to download):


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.26 10:04

USD/JPY Intra-Day FundamentalsTokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food and range price movement 

2018-01-25 23:30 GMT | [JPY - Tokyo Core CPI]

  • past data is 0.8%
  • forecast data is 0.8%
  • actual data is 0.7% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Tokyo Core CPI] = Interest rate at which major financial institutions borrow and lend overnight funds between themselves.

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From rttnews article :

  • "Overall nationwide consumer prices in Japan gained 1.0 percent on year in December, the Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications said on Friday."
  • "Tokyo's core CPI gained 0.7 percent on year in January - shy of expectations for 0.8 percent, which would have been unchanged."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Tokyo CPI Ex Fresh Food news event 


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The chart was made on M5 timeframe with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 except the following indicator (free to download):


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Sergey Golubev, 2018.01.28 12:23

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY - "Keep in mind, the U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report is also due out next week, with employment anticipated to increase 183K in January, while Average Hourly Earnings are projected to pick up during the same period. Hawkish Fed rhetoric paired with signs of stronger job/wage growth may generate a rebound in USD/JPY, but recent price action keeps the near-term outlook tilted to the downside as the pair snaps the range from earlier this month, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) flashes the most extreme reading since 2016."

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Chart was made on MT4 using iFibonacci indicator and MaksiGen_Range_Move indicator from CodeBase (free to download).


Sergey Golubev
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What's going on for USD/JPY?

goodluckh4, 2018.02.05 23:56

The US stock market had just plummeted, which was resulted from a rise in the dollar.

However, instead of seeing a rising USD/JPY, it had walloped. What happened in the past 8 hours? Did something happen in Japan that had bolstered the yen? 


Regards.


Chris Mukengeshayi
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Chris Mukengeshayi  
Sergey Golubev:

The market did not follow it principle, it could have been news.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2018.02.21 07:30

USD/JPY - daily bearish ranging for direction (based on the article)

Daily price is below Icchimoku cloud in the bearish area of the chart: the price was bounced from 105.54 support level to above for the bearish ranging to be started.
If the price breaks 107.90 resistance level to above so we may see the secondary rally.
If the price breaks 109.30 resistance level so the the daily bullish reversal will be started.
If the 105.54 support is broken to below so the strong bearish trend will be resumed.

USDJPY Daily chart

  • "The Japanese Yen has come under a bit of unfamiliar pressure against the US Dollar in the past week but it may be too early to call an end to a run of gains which have taken it to highs not seen since late 2016. A so-far modest but broad US Dollar resurgence has seen USD/JPY rise for four straight sessions to the end of Tuesday’s action. This is the longest winning streak seen for the duration of the long fall from the highs of January 8."
  • "Still, as you can see from the chart above the downtrend channel plotted remains very much in place and the Dollar’s current pep looks little more than corrective so far. It had become extremely oversold last week, for one thing, according to its Relative Strength Index. This week will also see the release of policy-meeting minutes from the US Federal Reserve. These are expected to set the stage for an interest rate rise next month, and perhaps leave the door wide open to many more. With such a key event looming it is perhaps natural that some player should lighten up on their more extreme short positions."

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Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

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Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

  1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
  2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
  3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
  4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
  5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
  6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After

  1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
  2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
  3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
  4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread  

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