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Forecast and levels for USD/JPY - page 4

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Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.20 15:42

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY, Dollar Index and Bitcoin/USD: Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey

2017-07-20 13:30 GMT | [USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Philly Fed Manufacturing Index] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed manufacturers in Philadelphia.

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From official report :

  • "The index for current manufacturing activity in the region decreased from a reading of 27.6 in June to 19.5 this month (see Chart 1). The index has been positive for 12 consecutive months, but July’s reading is the lowest since November. Thirty-seven percent of the firms indicated increases in activity in July, down from 42 percent last month. The shipments index decreased 16 points, while the new orders index fell 24 points. Nearly 31 percent of the respondents reported a rise in new orders this month, down from 45 percent in June. Both the delivery times and unfilled orders indexes were positive for the ninth consecutive month, suggesting longer delivery times and increases in unfilled orders."
  • "Firms reported overall increases in manufacturing employment this month, but the current employment index fell 5 points. The index has been positive for eight consecutive months. The percentage of firms reporting an increase in employment was 17 percent, while 6 percent reported a decrease. The average workweek index has been positive for nine consecutive months but decreased 17 points."

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Dollar Index M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events


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BTC/USD M5: range price movement by Philadelphia Fed Business Outlook Survey news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.22 11:56

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY"The Bank of Japan (BoJ) interest rate decision has done little to alter the near-term outlook for USD/JPY, with the pair at risk of giving back the rebound from the June-low (108.80) if the Federal Reserve endorses a more gradual path in normalizing monetary policy. With Fed Fund Futures still showing a 50/50 chance for a move in December, market participants may put increase emphasis on the 2Q Gross Domestic Product (GDP) report as the growth rate is expected to pick up from the first three-months of 2017."


csc2009
835
csc2009  

The pair remains strong bearish tone, immeidate support can be found around 110.70 zone, further decline is expected.

Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev  

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Sergey Golubev, 2017.07.28 14:35

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/JPY and USD/CNH: U.S. Gross Domestic Product

2017-07-28 13:30 GMT | [USD - GDP]

  • past data is 1.4%
  • forecast data is 2.5%
  • actual data is 2.6% according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - GDP] = Annualized change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy.

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From official report :

  • "Real gross domestic product increased at an annual rate of 2.6 percent in the second quarter of 2017 (table 1), according to the "advance" estimate released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In the first quarter, real GDP increased 1.2 percent (revised)."
  • "The price index for gross domestic purchases increased 0.8 percent in the second quarter, compared with an increase of 2.6 percent in the first quarter (revised) (table 4). The PCE price index increased 0.3 percent, compared with an increase of 2.2 percent. Excluding food and energy prices, the PCE price index increased 0.9 percent, compared with an increase of 1.8 percent (appendix table A)."

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EUR/USD M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events


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USD/CNH M5: range price movement by U.S. Gross Domestic Product news events



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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.08 07:58

USD/JPY Intra-Day FundamentalsJapan Adjusted Current Account and range price movement 

2017-08-08 00:50 GMT | [JPY - Current Account]

  • past data is 1.40T
  • forecast data is 1.51T
  • actual data is 1.52T according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - Current Account] = Percentage that business managers expect the price of goods and services to change annually during the next 2 years. 

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From rttnews article :

  • "Japan posted a current account surplus of 934.6 billion yen in June, the Ministry of Finance said on Tuesday."
  • "The adjusted current account showed a surplus of 1,522.5 billion yen versus expectations for 1,502.9 billion yen and up from 1,400.9 billion yen a month earlier. Also on Tuesday, the Bank of Japan said that overall bank lending in Japan was up 3.3 percent on year, coming in at 516.253 trillion yen. That was in line with expectations and unchanged from the June reading."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Japan Adjusted Current Account news event 


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.13 09:09

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY"The big driver for the Yen has appeared to be one of risk aversion. On Tuesday, around Noon Eastern Time, U.S. President Donald Trump sent a tweet that triggered fears around the U.S. stand-off with North Korea regarding the DPRK’s nuclear ambitions. Shortly after this tweet was sent, risk assets like the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq 100, as well as Nikkei futures began to dip-lower. USD/JPY mirrored this movement, as Yen strength began to show and continued through the week and into Friday. The logic for why this correlation exists and why it played out this way is fairly logical: With the Bank of Japan being one of the ‘more dovish’ of the major Central Banks, the expectation is for the BoJ to remain pedal-to-the-floor with stimulus well into the end of Haruhiko Kuroda’s tenure next April."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.14 07:45

USD/JPY Intra-Day FundamentalsJapan Gross Domestic Product and range price movement 

2017-08-14 00:50 GMT | [JPY - GDP]

if actual > forecast (or previous one) = good for currency (for JPY in our case)

[JPY - GDP] = Change in the inflation-adjusted value of all goods and services produced by the economy. 

==========

From rttnews article :

  • "Japan's gross domestic product advanced 1.0 percent on quarter in the second three months of 2017, the Cabinet Office said in Monday's preliminary reading."
  • "On a yearly basis, GDP surged 4.0 percent - again topping expectations for 2.5 percent and up from the upwardly revised 1.5 percent jump in the first quarter (originally 1.0 percent)."

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USD/JPY M5: range price movement by Japan Gross Domestic Product news event 


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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.14 15:36

USD/JPY - daily bearish; 108.72 is the key (based on the article)

The price on the daily chart is below Ichimoku cloud for the primary bearish market condition by trying to break support level at 108.72 to below for the bearish trend to be continuing, otherwise - bearish ranging within the levels.


  • "Based on a current one-week implied volatility level of 8.63% the expected one-standard deviation range for the next week is 10844-11106. Looking lower, if Friday’s low fails the next area of support arrives at the April lows at 10813, with a closing worst at that time of 10843. The projected low of 10844 is in nearly precise alignment. Watch for support to hold should another dive lower take shape."
  • "Looking higher USDJPY still has work to do to break the downtrend dating back to the 7/11 high. Should it find continued buying pressure a rebound unfolding towards the projected high of 11106 could stall. There lies resistance in the vicinity from a swing-high this month which lost momentum around prior support going back to the third week of June. This may be an area where sellers step in and keep USDJPY from furthering any attempt to rally in the near-term."


Sergey Golubev
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Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.18 08:51

USD/JPY - daily bearish with 110.94/108.72 key levels (based on the article)

Daily price broke Ichimoku cloud to be reversed to the primary bearish market condition: the price is on ranging within 110.94/108.72 levels for the bearish trend to be continuing or for the secondary rally ro be started.


  • "At first glance, the Japanese Yen is having things very much all its own way against the US Dollar. USD/JPY remains in an obvious downtrend from the last significant peak – July 11’s 114.06. On a daily closing basis, that peak was itself lower than the previous notable top, May 10’s 114.30. Another bad sign for any remaining bulls. Moreover, recent falls are only an acceleration of the more gradual downtrend that’s been with us all year."
  • "However, for the short term it might be a good idea to keep an eye on the June 14 intraday low at 108.80. That’s just about where the latest foray lower bounced between August 11 and August 14. It seems to be the most significant obvious barrier to progress lower now. It’s easy enough to see why this might be so. 108.80 is the lowest point for the currency pair short of the outright 2017 nadir of 108.11, hit on April 17. If you are uncomitted at this point it might be a good idea to wait and see if these two key support levels survive this latest attack before taking a position."


Sergey Golubev
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Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2017.08.20 10:38

Weekly Fundamental Forecast for USD/JPY (based on the article)


USD/JPY"The Yen weakened in the early portion of this week after this robust GDP print, and this was likely more-related to the easing of risk aversion after last week’s heightened worries around North Korea. U.S. stocks popped-higher on Monday, and held gains on Tuesday and going into Wednesday; mirroring the move of weakness in the Japanese Yen, even despite this stronger-than expected GDP report that opened the week. But after those FOMC meeting minutes were released on Wednesday, the tone changed: Yen strength showed-up again, stocks sold off, and we rallied off the lows as we move towards week-end."


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