Forecast and levels for EURO - page 36

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.07 15:11

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, USD/CNH and GOLD (XAU/USD): United States Nonfarm Payrolls

2020-02-07 13:30 GMT | [USD - Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 147K
• forecast data is 163K
• actual data is 225K according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - Non-Farm Employment Change] = Change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Total nonfarm payroll employment rose by 225,000 in January, and the unemployment rate was little changed at 3.6 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Notable job gains occurred in construction, in health care, and in transportation and warehousing."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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USD/CNH: range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by Nonfarm Payrolls news events

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Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[fxstrategist007]

The Euro just keeps falling and it seems like nothing can stop it. The 1.0800 level could be its next visit.

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.18 14:12

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German ZEW Economic Sentiment and range price movement 

2020-02-18 10:00 GMT | [EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment]

• past data is 26.7
• forecast data is 20.0
• actual data is 8.7 according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German ZEW Economic Sentiment] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed German institutional investors and analysts.

==========

From official report :

• "The ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment for Germany decreased sharply in February, falling 18.0 points to a new reading of 8.7 points. The indicator is thus slightly below its December 2019 level. The assessment of the economic situation in Germany has also worsened compared to the previous month, with the corresponding indicator dropping to a level of minus 15.7 points, 6.2 points lower than in January."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by German ZEW Economic Sentiment news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• SilverTrend_NRTR - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

The forum threads

1. Key forum thread - Fast Fourier Transform - Cycle Extraction - the thead with FFTfiltr indicator and explanation
2. New EA based on the !xMeter (!xMter based on Fast Fourier Transform) - the thread 
3. Many FFT indicators with examples and explanations - the thread 
4. Ticks Before The News - the thread with many FFT indicators and explanation how to trade

CodeBase

1. dt_FFT - library for MetaTrader  
2. LGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 4 
3. ALGLIB - Numerical Analysis Library - library for MetaTrader 5 
4. AFIRMA - indicator for MetaTrader 5
   
5. Fourier extrapolation of price - indicator for MetaTrader 5

The articles

• Introduction to the Empirical Mode Decomposition Method  
  
• Building a Spectrum Analyzer  
• Analysis of the Main Characteristics of Time Series

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.21 09:51

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: Markit Germany Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) and range price movement

2020-02-21 08:30 GMT | [EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 45.3
• forecast data is 44.8
• actual data is 47.8 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Flash Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers in the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

• "Flash Germany PMI Composite Output Index (1) at 51.1 (Jan: 51.2). 2-month low."
• "Flash Germany Services PMI Activity Index(2) at 53.3 (Jan: 54.2). 2-month low."
• "Flash Germany Manufacturing PMI(3) at 47.8 (Jan: 45.3). 13-month high."
• "Flash Germany Manufacturing Output Index(4) at 47.0 (Jan: 45.6). 9-month high."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by Markit German PMI news events

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ColorSchaffTriXTrendCycle - indicator for MetaTrader 5

Same system for MT4:

1. Brainwashing. Trades: manually and using EAs (MT4)
2. Brainwashing EAs - the thread (MT4)
3. Brainwashing: system setup for trading manually and for EAs (MT4) - the thread 
4. Brainwashing: system development (MT4) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.02.24 10:43

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: German Ifo Business Climate and range price movement 

2020-02-24 09:00 GMT | [EUR - German Ifo Business Climate]

• past data is 95.9
• forecast data is 95.0
• actual data is 96.1 according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - German Ifo Business Climate] = Level of a composite index based on surveyed manufacturers, builders, wholesalers, services, and retailers.

==========

From marketscreener article :

• "Eurozone: German IFO business climate better than estimates at 96.1. The consensus counted on 95.0. The previous publication was 95.9. This monthly indicator published by the IFO economic institute based in Frankfurt defines - via a survey of 7,000 entrepreneurs - the level of confidence in the German economy."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by  German Ifo Business Climate news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.04 18:17

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, GBP/USD and USD/JPY: ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI

2020-03-04 15:00 GMT | [USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI]

• past data is 55.5
• forecast data is 54.9
• actual data is 57.3 according to the latest press release

if actual > forecast (or previous good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI] = Level of a diffusion index based on surveyed purchasing managers, excluding the manufacturing industry.

==========

From official report :

• "The report was issued today by Anthony Nieves, CPSM, C.P.M., A.P.P., CFPM, Chair of the Institute for Supply Management® (ISM®) Non-Manufacturing Business Survey Committee: "The NMI® registered 57.3 percent, which is 1.8 percentage points higher than the January reading of 55.5 percent. This represents continued growth in the non-manufacturing sector, at a faster rate. The Non-Manufacturing Business Activity Index decreased to 57.8 percent, 3.1 percentage points lower than the January reading of 60.9 percent, reflecting growth for the 127th consecutive month. The New Orders Index registered 63.1 percent; 6.9 percentage points higher than the reading of 56.2 percent in January. The Employment Index increased 2.5 percentage points in February to 55.6 percent from the January reading of 53.1 percent. The Prices Index reading of 50.8 is 4.7 percentage points lower than the January’s 55.5 percent, indicating that prices increased in February for the 33rd consecutive month. According to the NMI®, 16 non-manufacturing industries reported growth. The non-manufacturing sector reflected continued growth in February. Most respondents are concerned about the coronavirus and its supply chain impact. They also continue to have difficulty with labor resources. They do remain positive about business conditions and the overall economy."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

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GBP/USD: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

==========

USD/JPY: range price movement by  ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI news events

=========

The charts were made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.10 09:20

EUR/USD - daily bullish breakout; 1.1494 for the daily breakout to be continuing; 1.1095 is the daily resistance for the bearish reversal to be started (based on the article)

• "EUR/USD has fallen to around 1.1350 as the market mood improves after a market massacre on Monday. Optimism about US fiscal stimulus and other factors are pushing yields and the dollar higher."
• "EUR/USD extends the Asian retreat below the 1.1400 level into early European trading, as the US dollar recovery gathers steam across the board, with bears now targeting 1.1300 ahead of the Eurozone GDP release."

==========

The chart was made on MT5 with standard indicators of Metatrader 5 together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Laguerre - indicator for MetaTrader 5 (as a part of Laguerre scalping system)

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.12 14:17

EUR/USD Intra-Day Fundamentals: ECB Interest Rates, Monetary Policy Statement and range price movement 

2020-03-12 12:45 GMT | [EUR - Main Refinancing Rate]

• past data is 0.00%
• forecast data is 0.00%
• actual data is 0.00% according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for EUR in our case)

[EUR - Main Refinancing Rate] = Interest rate on the main refinancing operations that provide the bulk of liquidity to the banking system.

==========

From official report :

• "The interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will remain unchanged at 0.00%, 0.25% and -0.50% respectively. The Governing Council expects the key ECB interest rates to remain at their present or lower levels until it has seen the inflation outlook robustly converge to a level sufficiently close to, but below, 2% within its projection horizon, and such convergence has been consistently reflected in underlying inflation dynamics."

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EUR/USD: range price movement by ECB  Interest Rates news event

==========

Chart was made on MT5 with BrainTrading system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) as well as the following indicators from CodeBase: 

• BrainTrend2Sig indicator from Codebase (free to download) 
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ChandeQStick - indicator for MetaTrader 5 
• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

All about BrainTrading system for MT5:

• BrainTrending indicators to download with template.
• Rules to trade manually
• How to install 

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.03.15 08:38

Euro Forecast: 1.0777 is the bearish target; 1.1406 is the resistance level for the bullish trend to be resumed(based on the article)

• "EUR/USD reversed direction last week as it turned sharply lower in response to a decision by the European Central Bank to keep Eurozone interest rates unchanged rather than cut them as most traders and analysts had expected."
• "The ECB’s decision raised fears that it is failing to respond sufficiently to the threat of an economic recession prompted by the Covid-19 coronavirus pandemic."
• "The downturn in EUR/USD may therefore continue even though the US Federal Reserve is expected to cut US interest rates again this week to help stimulate the US economy."

============

The chart was made with Ichimoku market condition setup (MT5) from this post (free to download for indicators and template) as well as the following indicator from CodeBase:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5

[Sergey Golubev]

Forum on trading, automated trading systems and testing trading strategies

Press review

Sergey Golubev, 2020.04.01 16:25

Intra-Day Fundamentals - EUR/USD, AUD/USD and GOLD (XAU/USD): ADP Non-Farm Employment Change (ADP) and range price movement 

2020-04-01 13:15 GMT | [USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change]

• past data is 179K
• forecast data is -150K
• actual data is -27K according to the latest press release 

if actual > forecast (or previous value) = good for currency (for USD in our case)

[USD - ADP Non-Farm Employment Change] = Estimated change in the number of employed people during the previous month, excluding the farming industry and government.

==========

From official report :

• "Private-sector employment decreased by 27,000 from February to March, on a seasonally adjusted basis."

==========

EUR/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

AUD/USD: range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

GOLD (XAU/USD): range price movement by ADP Non-Farm Employment Change news event

==========

Charts were made on MT5 with Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) from this thread (free to download) together with following indicators:

• MaksiGen_Range_Move MTF - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• ASCtrend - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Ichimoku Cloud - indicator for MetaTrader 5
• Vortex - indicator for MetaTrader 5

==========

Same systems for MT4/MT5:

The beginning

1. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #1
2. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #2
3. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #3
4. ASCTrend system, the beginning, part #4 
5. Digital ASCTrend (Digital Filters with ASCTrend system combined).
6. LabTrend (LabTrend indicators, LabTrendZigZag, templates, Labtrend EAs) - the thread

After 

1. The main AscTrend thread is this one.
2. Asctrend indicator in depth 
3. ASCTREND SYSTEM summary (good EAs included) 
4. Brainwashing system/AscTrend system (MT5) - the thread